By Long Xingchun
According to foreign media reports, four Indian Navy warships will visit Manila Port on August 2, followed by joint maritime cooperation activities with the Philippine Navy from August 4 to 8 in the Philippines' "Exclusive Economic Zone". It marks the first joint naval exercise between the two countries since 2021. In addition, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is scheduled to visit India from August 4 to 8 to advance bilateral economic and security ties. The timing of the presidential visit coincides exactly with the joint naval drills.
During the Marcos administration, relations between the Philippines and India continued to warm up. In 2023, the Philippines became the first country to purchase India's BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles. In April this year, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro announced that the country would receive a second batch of Indian-made missiles. In addition, the Philippine Coast Guard is reportedly planning to acquire India's HAL Dhruv maritime reconnaissance helicopters. While it is natural for countries to develop bilateral relations, the military cooperation between India and the Philippines is clearly aimed at China.
Since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office, the Philippines has shifted its stance on the South China Sea issue from dialogue to confrontation. Meanwhile, he has actively courted extraterritorial powers in an attempt to internationalize the issue and contain China. India, a key partner in US's "Indo-Pacific Strategy", has also been encouraged by Washington to strengthen cooperation with its Asian allies as part of a broader effort to counterbalance China, which has brought the Philippines and India closer together. Following in the footsteps of the US, Australia, Japan, Canada and France, India has joined the Philippines in conducting operations in the South China Sea under the banner of so-called maritime security cooperation.
Some Indian hawks have openly advocated leveraging involvement in the South China Sea and Taiwan-related issues to counter China, with the Philippines emerging as India's most convenient entry point for intervention in the South China Sea. The ongoing India-Philippines naval drills are held in waters near China's Huangyan Dao, an area whose sensitivity India is undoubtedly aware of. Notably, India's position on the so-called South China Sea arbitration has shifted from merely taking note to calling for compliance, which is telling in itself.
However, the military cooperation between India and the Philippines is "much said but little done." At the heart of it lies India's lack of political will to confront China on behalf of the Philippines. India is beset by numerous disputes with its neighboring countries, and its domestic challenges are equally pressing. If India were to heed the calls of its hawkish voices and intervene in the South China Sea, the gap in strength would leave it unable to withstand China's countermeasures. The Philippines' attempt to shift the balance of power in its confrontation with China by purchasing Indian arms and strengthening military cooperation with India is nothing short of grasping at straws. Even the US military, which the Philippines relies heavily upon, has failed to force China into submission. Indian military involvement is all the more insignificant in comparison. India may hope that the Philippines will create trouble for China and has voiced support for it, but it is unlikely to risk getting burnt for Manila's agenda. In reality, India's true intention may be to showcase its capabilities through joint military drills and use the opportunity to promote its BrahMos missile.
Some Indian strategists fancy themselves as shrewd actors and often portray India as a game changer, but in truth, they have changed little. Tensions between China and the Philippines, as well as between China and India, do exist. Some of these frictions stem from practical issues or historical legacies created by extraterritorial actors. Disputes should be resolved through mutual respect and a pragmatic, issue-based approach, rather than through confrontation that only hinders the sound development of bilateral and multilateral relations. If certain parties attempt to open up a second front in pursuit of illegitimate interests and seek to resolve conflicts by amplifying them, they will only create more problems for themselves and ultimately find the gains not worth the losses.
(The author is a professor of the School of International Relations, Sichuan International Studies University.)
Editor's Note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
