By Sui Changquan

The American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released last month the fifth of its series of Armitage-Nye reports,U.S.-Japan Alliance in 2020: An Equal Alliance with A Global Agenda. The report is considered as a bellwether for the US-Japan alliance policy as the policy suggestions in the serial reports put forth in recent years have been repeatedly adopted by the Japanese and American governments.

The latest report describes in great detail the so-called “threats” posed by China in military, economic, technical and other fields in an attempt to underscore the importance of intensifying the US-Japan alliance. Against the backdrop of increasingly fierce competition between Beijing and Washington, the report tries to capture the attention of Tokyo and the White House with the so-called “China threat” and hopes to persuade President Biden into strengthening the US-Japan alliance.

The new report uses a different tone about Japan, unlike the remonstration used in previous reports. While the third report bluntly asked whether Japan wanted to stay a first-class country or it was willing to become a second-grade one, the fifth report spent a large part on affirming Japan’s handling of Asian-Pacific matters in recent years and suggested allowing it a more equal position in the alliance with the US.

The new report underscores the need to expand the US-Japan partnership and alliance and strengthen the cooperation with countries that share common interests and values with the Asia Pacific and Europe. It calls for closer US-Japan cooperation in a broader scope, not limited to military, economic, and technical fields, and advises including Japan in the Five Eyes alliance.

Washington believes that giving Tokyo a more “equal” position in the alliance will encourage Japan to play a bigger role in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy. In fact, the Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation signed in 2015 already emphasized the global nature of the alliance between the two countries. On the one hand, with thedeclining national strength, the US has a greater need to break through the regional limitation to the US-Japan alliance in order to maintain its global domination. On the other hand, it offers an opportunity for Japan to participate more broadly in international affairs and consequently achieve its political purpose.

It’s foreseeable that Japan will be pushed to the frontline more often to cope with security threats. The US will step back and mainly provide Tokyo with extended nuclear deterrence, intelligence support, and sea and air force support. As to economic and technical cooperation in the Asia-Pacific, Washington is likely to share its domination in those domains through the alliance with Japan.

Such a pattern, with Japan fighting on the frontline and the US raking in benefits in the rear, will become the normal state of the future US-Japan alliance. It is good for Japan to achieve its goal of becoming a “political power” leveraging America’s strengths, and also lowers the cost for the US to maintain its global hegemony.

Yet, such an alliance envisioned by Washington is nothing more than a “castle in the air” despite the seemingly good prospects. The non-reconcilable structural conflicts between the two countries remain the biggest hurdle in the alliance, and a relationship genuinely equal is far beyond reach for the many obstacles.

On security, the US policy of restricting and taking advantage of Japan will remain unchanged. On the economy, there is less possibility for Japan to assist the US in curbing China at the expense of its development interests as the country is more reliant on the Chinese market with the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). On politics, China isn’t high on the Biden team’s agenda, as it already has its plate full with pandemic prevention and control, political divide, and other domestic issues. Besides, the unclear outcome of Japan’s next prime minister election has also created uncertainties for the cooperation between Washington and Tokyo.

It’s easy to see that the latest Armitage-Nye report is just a new bottle containing old wine with the sinister intention of hyping up the so-called “China threat” and turning Japan into US pawn in the Asia Pacific. Deepening the US-Japan alliance doesn’t seem so optimistic since both sides have their calculations for the cooperation.

The author is an expert from the National Defence University,PLA China.