By Tian Wenlin

Smoke rises from a port of Gaza City after an Israeli assault during the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict has persisted for more than 100 days since its outburst on October 7, 2023, which has witnessed rarely lengthy duration, large scale and high intensity, numerous casualties and extensive spillover effect. In light of past occurrences, the current round of conflict reflects a series of significant changes in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, which deserves high attention from the international community.

The rightward drift of the Israeli government has become increasingly apparent.

At the end of 2022, Benjamin Netanyahu, who had reestablished a presence in politics, completed the formation of the new Israeli government. This government is made up of six parties, including the far-right Religious Zionist Party. Due to the involvement of far-right forces, the government has been described by the media as the most right-wing government in Israel's history, featuring a foreign policy of seeking both land and peace. To put it bluntly, Israel under this leadership desires to gobble up more lands while ensuring its absolute security. After the outbreak of the current round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the government has shown its far-right posture to the fullest. At the beginning of the conflict, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant openly threw out the extreme statement that they were "fighting against human animals." On January 2, 2024, Israel executed the targeted elimination of the deputy head of the Hamas politburo Saleh al-Arouri, making the hopeful second ceasefire agreement between Palestine and Israel vanish like soap bubbles. According to a UN report released on January 19, more than 24,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip over the past 100 days since the conflict erupted, and 70% of them are women and children. Besides, 85% of the whole population in Gaza has been displaced, including one million women and girls. Multiple indications suggest that the Israeli government remains steadfast in its policies despite the mounting international pleas and pressure for a halt to the fighting, and exhibits an increasingly evident inclination towards right-leaning policies. In this context, the prospect of resolving the Palestinian-Israeli issue through the two-state solution has become increasingly bleak.

New anti-Israel alliance is emerging in the Middle East.

During the Cold War, the entire Arab world was the main force resisting Israel. After the Fourth Middle East War, the anti-Israel coalition among Arab countries began to collapse for various reasons, so the Palestinian people had to rely more on themselves to solve the issue. For a long time later, the focus of resolving the conflict had moved from primarily resorting to war to emphasizing peace talks. After winning the general election in 2006, Hamas became the main force in the Palestinian resistance against Israel. Last October, Hamas fired thousands of rockets into Israel during the Jewish holidays, and even crossed into Israel and captured a number of military officers and soldiers there, which directly initiated the current round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Armed groups in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq have stepped in after the reignition of the war between Israel and Palestine. Among them, the Yemen Houthi armed forces frequently attacked ships related to Israel and the US in the Red Sea to show their support for Palestine. The Lebanese Hizballah constantly engaged in fighting with Israel in the border area between them, repeatedly fired rockets at Israel, and launched a drone attack on the headquarters of the Israeli army's northern headquarters. Iraqi armed groups also commenced successive assaults on Israel, and even claimed to have stricken Haifa, a key port city of Israel, by using cruise missiles. The armed groups of Syria also assaulted the US military bases in the country. According to statistics, the US forces in Syria had suffered 83 attacks from October 17, 2023 to January 17, 2024.

As a regional power in the Middle East, Iran has repeatedly expressed support for Hamas in public, while calling on the Islamic world to impose collective economic sanctions on Israel, and providing support to militia armed groups in countries like Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. In the Middle East and even the entire Islamic world, Iran can be considered as the vanguard of resistance against Israel.

Facts show that a new anti-Israel coalition mainly composed of non-state actors is taking shape in the Middle East. Compared with the former anti-Israel alliance among Arab countries, the new coalition is characterized by flexibility and high decentralization. For the time to come, Israel is probably to be ensnared in the whirlpool of protracted low-intensity conflict, and it remains to be seen whether the country can cope with this asymmetric war as effectively as before.

The US is losing its hold on Israel.

During the US-Soviet rivalry, Israeli-Palestinian conflicts occasionally arose but tended to be of short duration, which was closely relevant to the roles played by the superpowers.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US held the dominant position in the Middle East. With the support of the US, Israel is aggressive and reckless on the issue with Palestine. The US has long favored and supported Israel mainly because it regards Israel as a pawn to promote its Middle East policies. Historically, Israel had done much for the US over issues such as opposing communism, Arab nationalism and Iranian Khomeinism. However, as the US has gradually shifted its strategic focus from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific in recent years, the divergences between the US and Israel have become increasingly apparent. Israel, for its own sake, does not want the US to leave the Middle East. In the wake of the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israel insisted on protracting and expanding the conflict despite persuasion from the US, mainly in a bid to pull the US back to the Middle East and help it suppress Iran and other regional opponents. The recent fighting between the US and the Houthis signals that Israel's goals are being achieved. This also proves that the US is losing its hold over Israel and even begins to be swayed by Israel.

This year marks a significant election year in the US. Out of this consideration, the Biden administration is highly probable to impose certain pressure on Israel, but Netanyahu will not simply be a passive follower. This will undoubtedly increase the risks of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict spiraling out of control and make the Middle East situation increasingly unpredictable.

(The author is a professor of the School of International Studies and a senior researcher of the School of Global and Area Studies at Renmin University of China.)