By Wang Bing

Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani recently announced that the relocation of about 100 US Marines in Okinawa Prefecture to Guam has started. This marks the first overseas redeployment of US forces since Japan and the US reached an agreement on the realignment of US forces in Japan in 2006.

Japan and the US previously reached a consensus on the relocation and deployment. They plan to relocate approximately 9,000 of the about 19,000 US Marines currently stationed in Okinawa Prefecture to places outside of Japan. Specifically, 4,000 personnel are set to move to Guam, while the remaining 5,000 will be dispatched to other regions, including Hawaii. What is the purpose behind the US military's move to Guam?

Chinese military analyst Zhou Weizheng analyzed that in the view of the US military, the precision strike capabilities of its potential adversaries are becoming increasingly stronger, and Okinawa is completely within the adversaries' firepower strike range. In the event of a so-called "high-end war" in the Western Pacific, frontline forces in Okinawa could suffer heavy losses or even complete annihilation during the opponent's first round of strike. Given this situation, the US military considers it highly dangerous to continue deploying forces in Okinawa and deems it necessary to relocate them to safer locations, Zhou said.

Guam lies at the heart of the Western Pacific. As the US overseas territory closest to the Asian continent, about one-third of the island's area is occupied by US military and it plays a critical role in the Indo-Pacific strategic deployments. According to Zhou, the relocation of US Marines from Okinawa to Guam may appear to be a retreat of its forces to the back, but in fact, it is a strategic maneuver by the US military so it can conduct decisive action when necessary.

"The US Marine Corps is working to establish three Marine Littoral Regiments (MLRs)," Zhou said. "These regiments are designed to be highly mobile and capable of flexible deployment to meet operational demands on the battlefield. They will be strategically positioned in a layered configuration across Okinawa, Guam, and Hawaii to address potential threats," said Zhou.

Zhou further analyzed that, should the security situation in the Western Pacific change, the US Marine Corps would be able to respond swiftly and deploy forces rapidly. The current adjustments in US military deployment are therefore driven by future operational requirements.

However, Zhou pointed out that if the US turns Guam into a "forward base" for launching military operations, even its robust defenses would not guarantee absolute security. "Given the current precision strike capabilities of adversaries, relocating to Guam does not place US forces beyond the range of the adversaries' firepower. Therefore, the deployment to Guam does not equate to absolute security," said Zhou.

Moreover, the concentration of US Army, Navy, and Air Force assets in Guam could make the island a primary target for adversaries in a "high-end war," exposing it to the risk of annihilation. The US military is already aware of this and has been intensifying efforts to bolster missile defense capabilities in Guam.

Editor's note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.