张瑷敏
By Zhang Aimin
近日，美国国务卿蓬佩奥在接受采访时表示，“伊斯兰国”企图从叙利亚向其他国家转移，建立新据点。虽然美国总统特朗普表示，或将很快宣布击败“伊斯兰国”、解放叙利亚和伊拉克两国，但彻底消灭“伊斯兰国”并非易事。鉴于“伊斯兰国”目前的情况和非洲的反恐形势，非洲将很可能成为“伊斯兰国”的一大发展方向。
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently said in an interview that Islamic State (IS) is attempting to move from Syria to other countries to establish their new strongholds. Although US President Donald Trump has said that he may soon announce the defeat of IS and the liberation of Syria and Iraq, the complete elimination of IS is not necessarily easy. Given the current condition of IS and the anti-terrorist situation in Africa, Africa would be likely to become a major target for developing the IS.
首先， “伊斯兰国”在伊拉克和叙利亚遭到沉重打击，势力范围大幅缩水。在这样的情况下，向其他地区渗透、发展，成为“伊斯兰国”的必然选择。“伊斯兰国”已将一大批骨干分子派往埃及西奈半岛、北非马格里布、阿富汗和东南亚、东亚等地区，持续进行组织、煽动、招募和破坏活动，妄图在当地建立“伊斯兰国”新的势力范围。
Firstly, IS has been badly hit in Iraq and Syria, and consequently its sphere of influence has decreased dramatically. Under such circumstances, infiltration into other regions for development has become an inevitable choice for IS.
IS has sent a large number of core members to the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt, Maghreb in North Africa, Afghanistan and Southeast Asia, East Asia, etc. They continued to carry out activities in organizing, inciting, recruiting and destroying in an attempt to establish new sphere of influence in those regions.
其次，非洲恐怖主义形势严峻，为“伊斯兰国”的发展提供契机。马格里布“基地”组织、尼日利亚“博科圣地”组织和索马里青年党这三大恐怖组织在非洲形成从西到东的恐怖主义活跃“弧形带”。“博科圣地”于2015年3月宣布效忠“伊斯兰国”，随后更名为“伊斯兰国西非省”。有情报表明，“博科圣地”同“伊斯兰国”在恐怖袭击方式、武器装备等方面，分享经验，进行沟通交流。而组织能力强、恐怖活动经验丰富，且有雄厚资金来源的“伊斯兰国”，对于非洲大大小小的恐怖主义组织具有很强的吸引力，它们很可能以宣布效忠、直接加入等方式融入“伊斯兰国”谋求生存，这或将使“伊斯兰国”的实力迅速恢复。
Secondly, the terrorism situation in Africa is grim and provides an opportunity for IS development. The three major terrorist organizations, namely the Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the Boko Haram in Nigeria, and al-Shabab in Somalia, have formed an active "arc-shaped belt" of terrorists stretching from west to east in Africa.
In March 2015, the militant group Boko Haram pledged its loyalty to IS and subsequently changed its name to Islamic State's West African Province (ISWAP). There are signs that the Nigerian terror group Boko Haram and IS share experience and learn from each other regarding methods of terrorist attack, weapons and equipment, etc.
The strong organizational capabilities, rich experience with terrorist activities, and solid financial support of IS are attracting various terrorist groups in Africa. They are likely to pledge their loyalties to or get integrated into IS. This may help IS to regain its strength quickly.
最后，非洲国家较差的政府管理能力、滞后的经济发展、薄弱的军队战斗力，也使得“伊斯兰国”更易进行渗透、发展。近年来，非洲一些大国的首都，屡次遭恐怖袭击，可见非洲国家反恐能力之薄弱。一些国家内部存在的民族、宗教等矛盾，也有可能被“伊斯兰国”利用，以扩张自身力量。
Finally, a combination of poor management and leadership of the governments, slow economic development, and weak military combat strength in African countries has made it easy for IS to penetrate and develop in these regions.
The lack of counter-terrorism capabilities in African countries has been shown by many repeated terrorist attacks in some major African countries' capitals in recent years. In addition, the contradictions among ethnic and religious groups in some countries may also be utilized by IS in an attempt to expand its strength.
一旦“伊斯兰国”在非洲“站稳脚跟”，后果将不堪设想，非洲乃至全世界的反恐形势都将急剧恶化。非洲有着丰富的自然资源和人力资源，“伊斯兰国”如在此建立基地，可借助这些资源进一步扩张，甚至有能力向其他地区发动更大规模的恐怖袭击。考虑到目前叙利亚局势仍处于各方博弈的不稳定状态中，“伊斯兰国”在非洲建立据点后，也很有可能趁叙利亚局势的变化，重返中东地区活动，这将使之前的反恐成果付之东流。美国国防部2月4日发布报告称，“伊斯兰国”有能力在6至12个月内卷土重来。美国中央司令部司令沃特尔也警告称，“伊斯兰国”目前依旧结构完整，领导者、人员、招募员和资源一应俱全。
If IS gains its footing in Africa, the consequences would be disastrous, and the anti-terrorism situation in Africa and even in the world would deteriorate sharply. Africa is rich in both natural and human resources. If IS establishes bases here, it could take advantage of these resources to further expand or even develop the abilities to launch larger-scale terrorist attacks in other regions.
Considering that the current situation in Syria is still unstable due to the power game, it is also very likely for IS to return to the Middle East once the situation in Syria changes after the establishment of its strongholds in Africa. The previous counter-terrorism efforts would come to nothing.
The US Department of Defense (DOD) issued a report on February 4, saying that IS can make a comeback in six to twelve months. General Joseph L. Votel, commander of United States Central Command also warned that IS is still structurally intact with various available advantages in leadership, key personnel, recruiters, resources, etc.
国际社会必须提前做好应对“伊斯兰国”在非洲“卷土重来”的充分准备。加强对非洲国家的援助，提供资金、装备、技术，提高它们的反恐能力，帮助非洲国家发展经济，提高人民生活水平。同时，以各种手段和方式切断“伊斯兰国”资金和人员的转移渠道，加强边境管控与合作，将“伊斯兰国”变为“瓮中之鳖”，予以彻底消灭。
The international community must be prepared in advance to prevent the "return" of IS to Africa. It is necessary to step up its assistance to African countries by providing adequate funds, equipment and technology to improve their counter-terrorism capabilities, as well as to help African countries to develop their economies and improve people’s living standards. Cutting off transfer channels of funds and personnel for IS and strengthening border control and cooperation are also effective measures to trap IS and eliminate the remnants of terrorists groups.
声明：本文作者张瑷敏。本文由《解放军报》刊发于2019年2月13日。
Disclaimer: The author is Zhang Aimin. The article was published on the PLA Daily on Feb. 13, 2019.
