李姝睿
By Li Shurui
8月2日，美国正式退出《中导条约》，次日，美国防部长埃斯珀就表示，希望在亚太尽早部署陆基中程导弹。尽管埃斯珀并没有说明会在何处部署，然而消息一出美国频频“遇冷”，5日至7日，澳大利亚、韩国和菲律宾相继明确表示拒绝。可见，亚太没人欢迎美国的导弹。
The US officially quitted the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) on August 2, and now it is planning to deploy land-based medium-range missiles in the Asia Pacific, according to its Secretary of Defense Mark Esper’s remark on August 3. Although he didn't specify a location, the news couldn't meet with less enthusiasm in the next few days as Australia, the ROK and the Philippines said no one after another from August 5 to 7, which denoted how unwelcome American missiles were in the Asia Pacific.
美国缘何要在亚太地区部署陆基中程导弹？中国军控与裁军协会高级顾问徐光裕指出，其目的有两个：Why does the US want to deploy land-based medium-range missiles in the Asia Pacific? Rtd Brig Gen Xu Guangyu, senior advisor at the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association (CACDA), pointed out two reasons.
其一，从战略层面来看，美国想在亚太地区取得所谓的“战略平衡”，并进一步谋求取得战略优势，弥补航空母舰打击的“距离缺陷”——航母实施打击需在离海岸1000公里以内，以此威慑其对手；其二，从全球范围来说，美国要完善其武器库，退出《中导条约》后就可“放开手脚”，而部署陆基中程导弹也是弥补了美军的短板，可以进一步维持其在全球的军事霸权地位。
For one thing, on the strategic level, Washington wants to realize a kind of "strategic balance" in the Asia Pacific and secure more strategic advantages in order to make up for the "distance deficiency" of attacks launched by aircraft carriers, which can only strike within 1,000 km from shore to exert its deterrence. For another, in the global scope, by withdrawing from the INF Treaty, the US no longer has any restraint or scruple in beefing up its arsenal. What’s more, the deployment of land-based medium-range missiles will make up for its weak links and further maintain its military domination in the world.
企图很丰满，现实却很骨感。英国《金融时报》援引美国军控协会专家的话分析称，尽管美国热衷在亚太部署中程导弹，但严峻的现实是，没有国家需要这类武器，部署未经美国国会授权，也没有盟友准备好接受。目前，澳大利亚、韩国、菲律宾均表示不会在本国部署美国陆基中程导弹。菲律宾总统杜特尔特更是强硬表态，称菲律宾永远不会允许美国在其领土上部署核武器和中程导弹。至于日本，分析人士认为，其可能会考虑国内民众的反应，从而拒绝部署中程导弹。
It sounds like a good plan but reality isn't so rosy. Financial Times, an English-language international daily newspaper headquartered in the UK, analyzed, quoting an expert with the American Arms Control Association(ACA), that although the US was keen on deploying medium-range missiles in the Asia Pacific, the reality was that no country in the region needed such weapons. Neither was the deployment authorized by the American congress nor was any ally ready to accept it. So far Australia, the ROK and the Philippines have made it clear that they wouldn't deploy America's land-based medium-range missiles on their territory. The Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte even made the tough statement that Manila would never allow Washington to deploy nuclear weapons and medium-range missiles on the Philippine territory. Analysts said Japan, considering public reaction to missile deployment, might reject the US proposal as well.
对此，徐光裕表示，从这个趋势来看，亚洲国家接受部署美国陆基中程导弹的可能性较低。每个国家都会从自身利益考虑，“接受部署就意味着在中程导弹的力量较量中，一旦发生战争，就会成为被攻击的靶子”。此外，一旦有国家接受部署，很可能会在亚太地区掀起中程导弹的军备竞赛，就会破坏亚太地区的和平与稳定，有违亚洲国家和平发展的意愿。即便有个别国家可以接受部署，也会让美国付出相当的代价，同时还要向其他国家做出解释，做到“左右逢源”。
“Chances were slim that Asian countries would accept the deployment of American land-based medium-range missiles as every nation would put its own interests first,” Rtd Brig Gen Xu commented, "Accepting the deployment means the country will become a target of strike once a war broke out amid the contest of medium-range missiles". Besides, once a nation agrees, that might trigger a round of medium-range missile race in the Asia Pacific and destroy regional peace and stability, which would be against Asian countries' wish for peaceful development. Even if some country did accept the deployment, the US would have to pay a high price for it and explain to other regional countries.
另外，俄罗斯国家杜马国防委员会副主席尤里•什维特金曾表示，埃斯珀的表态再次证明美国不仅不想遵守《中导条约》，还计划在亚太地区制造紧张局势，俄罗斯不会对美国的这一行为袖手旁观。
Yuri Shvetkin, Deputy Chairman of the Defense Affairs Committee in Russian State Duma said Esper's remarks once again proved that Washington has no intention to observe the INF Treaty and it even planned to create tension in the Asia Pacific, to which Moscow definitely would not just look on with folded arms.
退出《中导条约》、加大中程导弹部署力度、将重心向亚太地区转移，美国的一系列举动正在向外界释放危险信号。如此贪婪地追求绝对、全面的军事优势，以巩固自身超级霸权，美国已经成为亚太地区乃至全球不稳定的头号源头。其与和平发展大势背道而驰、逆时代潮流而动的行为，终将以失败落幕。
Quitting the INF Treaty, stepping up the deployment of medium-range missiles and shifting the focus to the Asia Pacific - the series of movements taken by the US are sending dangerous signals to the world. This obsession with absolute, all-round military superiority and super hegemony has made the US the biggest source of instability and uncertainty in the Asia Pacific region and the world at large. Its actions that go completely counter to the global trend of peace and development and against the tide of the times will eventually end in failure.
