US troops in Afghanistan: won't go or can't go

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Li Jiayao
Time
2020-07-16 21:06:21

By Zhang Jing

The Afghan government terminated the release of the last batch of Taliban prisoners, reported Afghan media on July 7, saying the move cast a shadow over the implementation of the peace agreement reached between the US and Taliban.

Washington's eagerness to pull troops from Afghanistan could be felt in a series of moves: US President Trump paid an unexpected visit to Afghanistan in late November last year, where he announced the plan to withdraw American troops from there; earlier this year, the US administration signed a peace agreement with the Taliban circumventing the Afghan regime; later US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had an emergency meeting with Afghanistan’s "dual presidents".

Indeed the Afghan issue is not nearly as important as it used to be when President Trump is having his plate full: handle the domestic COVID-19 pandemic, racial conflicts, campaign for the upcoming presidential election in November, cope with chaotic and turbulent situations in the Middle East and North Africa, and navigate the “major-power rivalry”.

Moreover, the situation in Afghanistan is a real headache for the White House as the country suffers from sustained political instability, American democracy is not welcomed there, and the government leadership is seriously divided. What are worse, American soldiers’ behaviors, such as abuse of Afghan corpses, burning of the Koran and killing of civilians, have led to the mounting anti-America sentiments among the Afghans.

Not to mention that the Afghan government's spending and military expenditure almost completely rely on external support due to its fragile economy. The government troops have deficient combat capacity as the Afghan soldiers are much less loyal to the nation than they are attached to their tribes and dependent on local warlords... Under such circumstances, American people have become sick and tired of this war that has lasted nearly 20 years, cost over a trillion US dollars, and taken more than 2,400 lives.

However, Afghanistan's special geographical location decides its important position in America's geopolitical strategy. By stationing troops there, the US can infiltrate China in the east, affect the five Central Asian countries in the north, deter Iran in the west and have a grip on Pakistan in the south, a country that's also on the forefront of counter-terrorism. Washington wouldn’t easily give up such a significant region.

As a matter of fact, the entry of American troops to Afghanistan in 2001 has seriously sabotaged regional security and stability. Starting from Afghanistan, Color Revolution has taken place in several former Soviet republics, such as Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, successively within a couple of years.

Given America's practices over the years, it is reluctant to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. The Iraqi war that broke out in early 2003 invoked strong controversy in the US. After Obama was elected president for the first time, he decided to pull troops from Iraq and send more troops to Afghanistan. During his visit to the country in May 2012, Obama pledged to give Afghanistan Major Non-NATO Ally status, and decided to extend aid to it to 2024 at the NATO Summit held in Chicago that month.

Even the Trump administration has sent 3,000 additional troops to Afghanistan in 2017, together with 1,000 military advisers as well as UAVs, armored vehicles and other weapons and equipment. As far as quantity is concerned, when Trump announced at the end of last year on a high profile to withdraw 4,000 troops from Afghanistan, it was just the additional troops it sent there three years earlier, and the purpose was to serve the election at home.

While Washington is unwilling to give up its military presence in Afghanistan, the reality there makes it unable to leave too. Although the Afghan regime has agreed with the Taliban to hold the first round of peace talks in Doha, the capital of Qatar, the armed conflicts between the two sides have never stopped. Actually, the Taliban has launched more than 3,000 attacks after signing the so-called peace agreement with the US. Once all American troops are pulled out, it's highly probable that the Taliban will completely control Afghanistan, which is something Washington doesn’t want to see.

More important, the US-Taliban peace agreement contains a lot of additional conditions on "full and complete withdrawal of troops," including the Taliban's commitment to prohibiting terrorist organizations from using the Afghan territory to threaten the US and its allies. Yet it is reported that the Taliban is still in close contact with al-Qaeda, which may still be an excuse for the US to tear up the peace agreement. Should that be the case, a complete withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan would be what General Kenneth McKenzie, Commander of the United States Central Command, called "an ideal objective."

(The author is from the National Security College, National Defence University of the People's Liberation Army)

 

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