By Zhang Ning

张 宁

Moscow and Washington signed an agreement on January 26 on expending the New START treaty for five years “without preconditions, without any additions,” as Moscow insisted, indicating that the only remaining arms control pact between the two countries is likely to be extended after the INF Treaty lost effect in 2019. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, who headed the talks with the American side on behalf of the Russian president, said the extension creates the possibility for the two countries to continue dialogues on the whole set of issues that influence strategic stability worldwide.

1月26日，俄美两国签署协议，决定将《新削减战略武器条约》有效期延长5年。俄方的要求是“延长5年，不预设条件，不附加内容”。这意味着在2019年《中导条约》失效后，俄美两国间仅存的军控条约有望延长。负责同美方进行谈判的总统代表、俄副外长里亚布科夫表示，有效期延长为两国未来继续就全球战略安全问题展开对话提供了可能。

Previously, Moscow has expressed its willingness to extend the New START treaty without any preconditions on quite a few occasions. Still, Washington gave the cold shoulder to the gesture and kept throwing out conditions during the negotiations that were hard for Moscow to accept. President-elect Biden released signals to restart the procedures of extending the centerpiece US-Russia nuclear arms treaty. On January 21, the next day after he took office, the White House announced its intention to extend the treaty by five years.

此前，俄方多次表示愿意在不设前提的条件下延长条约，但美方对此态度冷淡，谈判过程中总是提出一些俄罗斯难以接受的条件。拜登当选美国总统后，逐步释放出与俄重启续约进程的信号。1月21日，拜登就任美国总统的第二天，白宫宣布美方寻求将《新削减战略武器条约》延长5年。

Both Russia and the US have separate considerations for the extension of New START.

实际上，俄美就延长《新削减战略武器条约》达成一致，背后各有考量。

If the only extant bilateral arms control pact between the two countries cannot sustain, their mutual trust will fall to a new low, and a nuclear arms race will loom large, which doesn’t cater to their strategic aspirations.

如果两国间仅存的双边军控条约不能得以维持，两国间的信任将降至更低点，核军备竞赛势必升温，不符合两国的战略愿望。

For Kremlin, extending the treaty is conducive to maintaining its position in the domain of global strategic stability, easing the confrontation with the US, and avoiding getting sucked into a costly nuclear arms race with the US.

对俄罗斯而言，延长该条约有利于维护其在国际战略稳定领域的地位，缓和与美国的对抗，同时避免被拖入代价高昂的军备竞赛。

For the White House, the new president Biden needs to ensure America’s current nuclear superiority and effective nuclear deterrence by extending the treaty and hopes to discuss new topics with the Kremlin on that basis. He also wants to reshape US global reputation by showing the international community America’s commitment to arms control. Besides, the New START treaty is a political legacy from a Democratic presidency under Obama, and Biden, as a long-time partner of the former president, wishes to inherit and protect this legacy.

对美国而言，美国新总统拜登希望通过延长条约确保美方当前的核优势以及有效的核威慑，并在此基础上与俄方就新议题展开讨论，同时向国际社会展现其对军控问题的承诺，重塑美国信誉。另外，由于该条约本身是奥巴马民主党政府的政治遗产，作为奥巴马总统的老搭档，民主党总统拜登也有意继承和维护这一政治遗产。

Notably, the extension of the New START treaty for five years won’t reverse the long-standing tensions between Russia and the US. Militarily, the Biden administration may be able to keep the New START treaty, but it’s not likely to re-join the INF and the Open Skies treaties that the Trump administration decided to quit. Politically, neither the Biden administration nor the Democratic partyis pro-Moscow, and Moscow accused the White House of being behind the recent massive protests in the country.

需要指出的是，即便《新削减战略武器条约》顺利续约，也无法扭转长期紧张的俄美关系。在军事方面，拜登政府或许能够保住《新削减战略武器条约》，但其重返特朗普政府时期退出的《中导条约》《开放天空条约》的可能性不大。在政治方面，拜登政府和其所在民主党一直对莫斯科没有好感。俄罗斯政府也指责近日发生在国内的大规模抗议活动背后有美国政府的身影。

As the US and Russia can hardly bridge their divergences on Ukraine, Syria, chemical weapons, and cybersecurity, and their structural conflicts will stick for a long time, a substantial improvement of bilateral relations will face a string of obstacles. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki recently said, “Even as we work with Russia to advance U.S. interests, so too we work to hold Russia toaccount for its reckless and adversarial actions.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinkenmade it clear at a recent congressional hearing that the Biden administration will use policy tools, including sanctions, to make sure Russia pays for what it did.

鉴于俄美两国在乌克兰、叙利亚、化学武器、网络安全等问题上的分歧难以弥合，结构性矛盾依然长期存在，两国关系实质性改善仍面临诸多阻碍。白宫新闻秘书普萨基日前表示：“在寻求与俄罗斯合作以促进美国利益的同时，我们也将要求俄方对其恣意妄为和敌对行动承担责任。”美国国务卿布林肯近日在国会听证时明确表示，拜登政府会利用包括制裁在内的政策工具确保俄罗斯为其行为付出代价。