No short-term solutions available to Myanmar's current political conundrum

缅甸政治困局恐短期难解

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Chen Lufan
Time
2021-02-04 16:56:38
Citizens protest against the military's takeover by lighting candles and tapping on metal utensils on February 2, Yangon, Myanmar. Photo courtesy of Visual China Group (VCG)
2月2日,缅甸仰光,市民们通过点燃烛火、敲击金属器皿等方式,抗议军方接管政权的活动。视觉中国供图

The political antagonism in Myanmar continued to intensify after the military announced its takeover. The US, the UK, Australia and other countries have successively called for the Myanmar military to "surrender power" and warned that they would take actions against those responsible.

在军方宣布接管国家政权后,缅甸国内政治对立氛围持续加剧。美国、英国、澳大利亚等国相继发声,要求缅甸军方“交出权力”,警告将对相关责任人采取行动。

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on February 2 that whatever actions taken by the international community shall contribute to Myanmar's political and social stability, promote its peace and reconciliation, and avoid escalating the conflict and complicating the situation.

中国外交部发言人汪文斌2日在回应相关问题时强调,国际社会的任何行动都应有助于缅甸政治和社会稳定,有助于缅甸和平,避免激化矛盾,使局势进一步复杂化。

The National League for Democracy (NLD)of Myanmar called forAung San Suu Kyi’s release,that of President Win Myint and all detained party members..It also demanded the military recognise the confirmed result of the 2020 general election and convene the parliament in accordance with the constitution. However, the military has yet to respon to those calls.

民盟向军方提出三项要求,包括释放温敏、昂山素季和全部被扣人员,认可2020年大选结果,依据宪法召开议会,但军方目前对此尚未作出回应。

The international community is gravely concerned about how the situation in Myanmar will unfold and when Aung San Suu Kyi will gain freedom again. Xu Liping, director of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the Myanmar coup once again underscored the challenges Myanmar’s "transition to democracy" faces. To a certain extent, the military played a decisive role at the critical moment of Myanmar's political transition as no political force in the Southeast Asian country has a say bigger than the military. Therefore, there is little possibility that the political dilemma in Myanmar can be fixed any time soon.

缅甸局势下一步会如何发展,昂山素季何时能被解除限制,已经引发国际社会的强烈关注。中国社科院东南亚研究中心主任许利平表示,此次缅甸变局再次凸显了“民主转型”的艰难。从某种程度来说,军方在缅甸政治转型的关键时刻起了一锤定音的作用,任何政治力量都难以代替军方的这种话语权,缅甸政治困局短时间难解。

The Myanmar military was once again caught in the crossfire of Western condemnation by this putsch, known as the "February crisis.". Leaders of many Western countries and organizations, including US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, and German Foreign Minister, have successively expressed their views on the situation in Myanmar since the political mess. They all strongly condemn the "coup," ask the military to release the detained personnel, and urge the Myanmar military to "respect" the election result. But the warning signals released by them are different.

被称为“二月危机”的这次事变,让缅甸军方再次成为西方谴责的焦点。包括美国总统拜登、英国首相约翰逊、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩、德国外长等在内的西方多国和组织领导人,自事件发生后就缅甸局势相继表态,基调也如出一辙:强烈谴责“政变”,要求军方放人,敦促缅甸军方“尊重”选举结果。但他们释放的警告信号却有所不同。

While calling on Myanmar's military leaders to respect the results of last November's parliamentary elections, the French government said that the French side is paying close attention to events in Myanmar and is discussing countermeasures with partners in the United Nations. Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Toshimitsu Motegi called on the Myanmar government to release the personnel and respect the rule of law. Still, they did not threaten to take measures against Myanmar. The ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs paid more attention to the safety and rights of ROK citizens and enterprises in Myanmar.

法国政府在呼吁缅甸军方领导人尊重去年11月议会选举结果的同时,表示法方正密切关注缅甸发生的事件,并与联合国内的伙伴们讨论应对措施。澳大利亚外交部长佩恩和日本外务大臣茂木敏充呼吁缅甸政府放人,尊重法治,但并未威胁对缅方采取措施。韩国外交部更加关注在缅韩国公民和企业安全和权利。

In contrast, the US and the UK threatened to impose sanctions. The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office of the UK summoned Myanmar's ambassador in London on February 1, threatening to use "all necessary diplomatic means" to ensure the peaceful return to democracy. The Biden administration officially determined the action of the Myanmar military as a "military coup" on February 2, saying that it will consider cuts in aid to Myanmar, and impose sanctions and other measures on "the very small circle of military generals" responsible. However, some US media believe that the US has limited influence over the leadership of Myanmar's military, leaving Biden with few bargaining chips to "hold someone responsible".

相比之下,美英两国是以制裁相威胁。英国外交部2月1日传召缅甸驻英大使,威胁将使用“所有必要的外交手段”,确保缅甸和平回归民主。拜登政府2日正式认定缅甸军方的行动为“军事政变”,称将要求考虑削减对缅甸的援助拨款,并对缅甸“极小圈子的军事将领”采取制裁和其他措施。但美国内有媒体认为,美国对缅甸军方领导层的影响力有限,拜登想“追责”的筹码并不多。

Analysts pointed out that the condemnation and threats of sanctions from the US and Europe may not have a substantial impact on Myanmar. On the contrary, if the Biden administration imposes broad and severe economic sanctions on Myanmar as the Bush and Obama administrations did, it may further alienate the people of Myanmar and worsen their attitude towards the West.

分析人士指出,美欧的谴责与制裁威胁,恐怕难以对缅甸方面产生实质性影响。相反,如果拜登政府像小布什和奥巴马政府那样对缅甸实施广泛严厉的经济制裁,可能会进一步疏远缅甸民众,令缅甸公众恶化对西方的态度。

(This article is originally published on www.cyol.com and translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.)

 

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