By Zhao Guojun
赵国军
American media recently reported that the US military is considering using the Red Sea port city of Yanbu in western Saudi Arabia and another two airfields in the kingdom, and it already has tested unloading and shipping cargo overland from the seaport. Though the US military described the move as a “prudent” and “contingency” planning measure without any intention of expanding its activities in the region, the international community is worried that the deployment may aggravate tensions in the Middle East.
美媒近日报道，美军拟使用沙特西部延布港和两座空军基地，已经在延布港测试经由陆路卸载和装运货物。尽管美方称这是一项“谨慎”的军事计划，是“临时”部署的应急设施，不会扩大美国在该地区的活动，但国际社会仍担心这一部署行动会加剧中东原本紧张的地区局势。
The US plans to build new military bases in Saudi Arabia mainly for the following considerations.
美国在沙特计划新增军事基地，主要基于以下考虑。
The deployment is targeted at Iran. Washington is getting ready for the negotiations with Iran on returning to the Iranian nuclear deal and regional security issues. It not only asks Tehran to return to the deal unconditionally but also wants to invite Saudi Arabia and UAE to join the negotiations and add content about limiting Iran’s missile capability. The US has taken a series of moves in the Middle East recently, from pushing Qatar, resume the diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia and other countries to sending bombers to fly over the Persian Gulf and to building new military bases, all for the purpose of containing and deterring Iran.
首先是针对伊朗。美国正在准备与伊朗进行关于重返伊核协议以及地区安全问题的谈判。美方不仅要求伊朗无条件重返伊核协议，而且想要邀请地区国家沙特和阿联酋等加入与伊朗的谈判，并在其中加入关于限制伊朗导弹能力等内容。推动卡塔尔与沙特等国复交、美军轰炸机飞越波斯湾上空、增设新的军事基地……近来美国在中东动作频频，简言之都是为了围堵和威慑伊朗。
Saudi Arabia remains America’s most important strategic pivot in the Middle East. Historically, the US only deployed a small number of troops in Saudi Arabia during the Cold War, but largely increased the troops during the first Gulf War targeting the Saddam regime in Iraq. The Obama administration downsized troops in Afghanistan and Iraq but viewed Saudi Arabia as the bridgehead to counter Iran. As Iran is gaining growing power over Iraq, Saudi Arabia, as one of America’s geopolitical allies, is becoming more important. Although the US side claimed the plan to build new military bases is not a provocation, and it has no intention to expand its military presence in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia, its strategic intent is evident at one sight.
其次，沙特仍是美国在中东地区最为重要的战略支点。从历史上看，冷战时期美国在沙特仅有小规模驻军。第一次海湾战争期间，美国开始在沙特大规模驻军，目标指向伊拉克萨达姆政权。奥巴马政府尽管缩减在阿富汗和伊拉克的驻军，却将沙特视为美应对伊朗的地区桥头堡。眼下，在伊朗对伊拉克影响力日增的情况下，沙特作为美国地缘政治盟友的作用更加凸显。尽管美方声称，新增军事基地的计划并非挑衅，无意在这一地区特别是在沙特扩张军事存在，但明眼人一看便知美军背后的战略意图。
Adding new military bases in Saudi Arabia is an adjustment of America’s local strategy in the Middle East that doesn’t harm its global strategy. The adjustment reflects a difference between the Biden and Trump administrations in their recognition of how strategically important the Middle East is. While Trump wanted to pull American troops back from the Middle East and concentrate resources on the Indo-Pacific, Biden planned to have more military bases in Saudi Arabia for the obvious purpose of demonstrating America’s influence and control in the Middle East region, not to mention that the move can also tighten its relation with regional allies by given them more confidence.
其三，美军驻沙特基地的增加，仍属于美国中东地区战略的局部调整，不影响其全球总体战略。这多少表现出拜登政府与特朗普政府对中东地区战略重要性的认知分歧。特朗普政府意在从中东撤军，实现战略收缩，将主要资源集中到印太地区。而拜登政府计划增加在沙特的军事基地，显然是为了表明美国仍对中东地区有影响力，是地区局势的掌控者。此外，美军此举还可以进一步拉拢地区盟友，增强地区盟友的信心。
However, Washington and Riyadh are not without divergences after Biden came in office. The US recently halted weapon sales to Saudi Arabia, which is explained as a routine review by the new administration but may also be interpreted as a way to impose pressure on the Middle Eastern country. Had the Biden administration forced Riyadh to stop supporting the civil war in Yemen by suspending the arms sale, Iran might have reduced the support to the Houthi militants.
当然，拜登政府上台后，美国与沙特之间的关系也并非铁板一块。日前，美国暂停对沙特军售，可以看作是新政府的一项例行审查，但也不排除以军售为工具向沙特施压。如果拜登政府以暂停军售迫使沙特停止对也门内战的支持，对于伊朗降低对胡塞武装的支持或有推动作用。
It’s worth noting that America’s building of new military bases in Saudi Arabia may easily lead to the rebound of regional extremist organizations, given that the massive American troops stationed in the country were an important reason why the Al-Qaeda launched the terrorist attacks against the US. If the US builds new military bases now, that may trigger another surge of extremist thoughts and exacerbate the threats to itself.
值得一提的是，美国在沙特新增军事基地，极易引发地区极端组织的反弹。美国在沙特的大量驻军曾是导致“基地”组织发动对美恐袭的重要原因。美国如果在沙特新建军事基地，将可能引发新一波极端主义思潮的爆发，针对美国的威胁也将上升。
As the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is undergoing profound changes, military confrontation will only further complicate and strain the Iranian nuclear issue and the regional situation, while dialogue among the parties is the only feasible way to restore peace and stability in the region. The top priority for the Biden administration now is to create conditions to get Iran back to the negotiating table. The US is unlikely to have what it desires by building more military bases in Saudi Arabia to put heavy pressure on Iran.
当前，中东地区地缘政治正在发生深刻的重组变化。军事对抗只会使伊核问题和地区局势进一步复杂化和紧张化。各方开展对话才是使地区局势和平稳定的可行途径。拜登政府的当务之急，应是创造条件让伊朗重返伊核协议。通过增加沙特军事基地施压伊朗，恐怕只会南辕北辙。
(The author is from the International Relations Department of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. This article is originally published on PLA Daily and translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online.)
（作者单位：上海社会科学院国际问题研究所）
