许海云
By Xu Haiyun
日前，白宫宣布将由美国防部长奥斯汀牵头，对美军部署进行全球态势评估。评估期间，暂停从德国撤军计划。
Recently, the White House announced that US President Joe Biden tasked Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin to conduct a global posture review on US military deployments worldwide, during which the US would suspend the plan to withdraw troops from Germany.
去年7月29日，美国以德国不增加防御开支、拒绝终止与俄罗斯合作的“北溪-2”项目为由，宣布将撤出1.2万名驻德美军，除一部分转移到意大利、波兰等其他北约国家外，其他美军返回美国，今后再考虑重新部署至欧洲。
On July 29, 2020, the US announced the decision to withdraw 12,000 troops from Germany on the excuse that Germany didn’t increase its defense budget and refused to terminate its cooperation with Russia in the Nord Stream 2 project. According to the decision, some of the US troops would move from Germany to other NATO countries such as Italy and Poland, and the rest would return to the US for re-deployment in Europe in the future.
拜登政府上台后，开始对上届政府诸多政策进行“拨乱反正”。而暂停从德国撤军的决定，除了表明与美国前总统特朗普的政策进行“切割”之外，还有深层次的考量。
After President Biden took office, he began to “bring order out of chaos” by modifying or abolishing the policies of the former administration. Suspending the withdrawal of US troops from Germany not only signifies the Biden administration’s stance to seek “separation” from Trump administrationbut also has other underlying reasons.
一方面，近年来北约在欧洲安全格局中的地位虽然有所下降，但对于美国仍具有重要战略价值。作为欧洲和大西洋区域最大的安全组织，北约仍是欧洲地缘政治的“重量级玩家”。在2008年俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚战争爆发后，北约与俄罗斯关系急剧恶化。尤其是2014年克里米亚事件以及接踵而至的乌克兰冲突，让北约与俄罗斯双方陷入军事对峙，北约在欧洲地缘政治中的地位进一步强化。而欧盟在德法两国带动下不断增强防务和战略自主性，更让美国认识到通过北约重新掌控欧洲的紧迫性。
On the one hand, despite its declining status in the European security landscape, NATO still has strategic importance for the US. As the largest security organization in Europe and the Atlantic region, NATO remains a “major player” in Europe’s geopolitical arena. In 2008, after the outbreak of the war between Russia and Georgia, the relationship between NATO and Russia deteriorated sharply.
Especially after the Crimean incident in 2014 and the following Ukraine conflict, NATO and Russia fell into a military standoff, and the importance of NATO in Europe’s geopolitics was further enhanced. At the same time, with Germany and France as the lead, the EU is increasingly strengthening its defense and strategic independence, making the US realize the urgency of re-controlling Europe via NATO.
从这个角度看，特朗普政府从德国撤军的决定，并不是为了废止或者疏远北约，而是借此向欧洲盟国施压，迫其就范。部分驻德美军在波兰等国重新部署，既表明美国采取“拉一派打一派”的做法，也表明撤军问题可在北约内部得到解决。
From this perspective, the reason that the Trump administration decided to withdraw US troops from Germany was not to alienate from NATO, but to force its European allies to follow the order of the US. The decision to move some troops from Germany to countries like Poland not only represented the strategy of the US “clamping down some countries while wooing others” but also signified that the issue concerning the withdrawal of US troops could be solved within NATO.
另一方面，停止从德国撤军，成为拜登政府修补美德关系以及跨大西洋关系的一个重要抓手。从政党政治的角度出发，拜登政府必然重回精英政治治理模式，在国际事务中更加重视盟友的作用。对特朗普政府的“美国优先”进行反思和回调，纠正对德政策继而修复和重塑跨大西洋关系，便成为其优先任务之一。
On the other hand, stopping withdrawing troops from Germany became an important measure taken by the Biden administration to repair US-Germany relations and transatlantic relations. From the perspectiveof partisan politics, the Biden administration would definitely return to the track of elite politics and attach greater importance to the role of US allies in international affairs. Therefore, rectifying policy toward Germany and repairing and reshaping transatlantic relations have been put on the top of the agenda of the Biden administration.
然而，拜登政府的这一决定，并不意味着驻德美军会马上恢复到原来的规模。特朗普的“美国优先”理念，在共和党和美国国内拥有众多支持者，这就决定了拜登不会以极端方式否定特朗普的所有内外政策，以免在美国政府与议会、民主党和共和党、不同社会阶层之间形成新的对立与对抗。因此，拜登政府很可能采取某种渐进方式，逐步平息和消除德国的“误解”，让美国对德政策重回正轨。
However, this decision made by the Biden administration doesn’t mean that the US troops in Germany will immediately restore the original scale. Trump’s “America First” policy still has many supporters among the Republicans, which indicates that Biden is unlikely to reject all domestic and foreign policies of the Trump administration to avoid new antagonism and conflict between the White House and the Congress, between the Democrats and the Republicans, and between different social classes. Therefore, the Biden administration may adopt a gradual approach to appease and eliminate Germany’s “misunderstandings” and bring its policy toward Germany back to the right track.
还需要看到的是，尽管拜登不赞成特朗普撤出驻德美军的举动，但这并不等于拜登同意德国继续保持低防御开支水平，亦不等于同意德国与俄罗斯毫无顾忌地展开合作，更不等于默认德国与其他欧洲盟国在欧洲事务中将美国置于某种边缘地位。
Notably, although Biden disagrees with Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from Germany, this doesn’t mean he will agree Germany continue maintaining a relatively low defense budget or conducting cooperation with Russia at will, let alone allowing Germany and other European countries to marginalize the US in European affairs.
可以预期的是，拜登政府将充分利用撤军问题，保持对德国的施压力度，在确保美国外交颜面的前提下修复美德关系，在确保跨大西洋关系正常化的基础上使美国的利益诉求得到最大满足。
It is expected that the Biden administration will leverage the issue concerning the withdrawal of US troops to maintain pressure on Germany, repair relations with Germany under the premise of maintaining US’ diplomatic dignity, and maximally secure US’ interests on the basis of maintaining the normalization of transatlantic relations.
（作者单位：中国人民大学历史学院）
(The author is from the School of History, Renmin University of China.)
