刘淙
By Liu Cong
3月8日至18日，韩美将实施上半年联合指挥所演习(CCPT)。韩美联合军演一向是一张牵动朝鲜半岛神经的“政治牌”，通常被视作是给朝鲜半岛局势增添变数的重要因素。此次会否令本就陷入僵局的紧张局势再度升温？
The ROK and US will carry out the Combined Command Post Training (CCPT) from March 8 to 18. As joint military exercise between the two countries is considered an important “political card” that always adds uncertainties to the Korean peninsular situation, will the CCPT escalate the deadlocked situation on the peninsula again?
朝鲜最高领导人金正恩在2021年1月的朝鲜劳动党第八次代表大会上曾指出，“韩国继续回避我方关于停止运进尖端军事装备和中止同美国的联合军演的屡次警告，依然违背有关保障朝鲜半岛和平与军事稳定的北南协议”。只有韩国当局严管并彻底根除“不正常的”行为，才能打开朝韩关系改善的新道路。
DPRK’s top leader Kim Jong-Un said at the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea that, “the ROK continues to neglect our warnings for it to stop importing sophisticated military equipment and the joint military exercises with the US. It continues to violate the inter-Korean military agreement on ensuring peace and military stability on the Korean peninsula”. He vowed that only when Seoul completely stops its abnormal behaviors will there be a chance of improving the relations with Pyongyang.
然而，美国拜登政府上台后，再次强调了韩美联合军演的重要性。
Yet Biden has reemphasized the importance of the US-ROK joint military exercise after he took office.
美国国防部2月曾表示，国防部长奥斯汀最重视的是军事应对态势。美国国防部强调，韩美联合军演是确认两国联合准备态势的核心手段。美方同时重申，演习的基本目的并不在于“挑衅”，而在于防御。
The US Department of Defense announced in February that what the new defense secretary Austin is concerned most is military responsiveness, while the military exercise with ROK is a crucial way to confirm their joint preparedness. The US side also reaffirmed that the fundamental purpose of the exercise is not provocation, but defense.
中国国际问题研究院研究员杨希雨在接受采访时分析称，从美国的角度，举行联合军演一方面是要维持美韩军事同盟，以及军队协同作战能力；另一方面，联合军演本身就能“刺激朝鲜神经”，对朝鲜进行施加压力，这是一张“政治牌”。
Yang Xiyu, researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, explained in an interview why the US plans to hold the joint military exercise. On the one hand, it wants to maintain the military alliance with ROK and improve the interoperability of their troops; on the other hand, the exercise is a political card that will put pressure on DPRK.
与此同时，韩国国内对此次军演也存在着诸多质疑声音。
However, voices against the exercise are heard within ROK.
一方面，对于韩国政府来说，需要通过演习，早日获得战时作战指挥权的移交。但引人关注的是，2021年的军演不仅规模有所缩小，备受关注的有关韩军收回战时作战指挥权的“完全作战能力”评估工作，也不会进行。此项评估工作旨在验证将行使战时作战指挥权的未来联合司令部是否具备指挥能力，是计划中的美韩战时作战指挥权移交工作中的核心内容。
Seoul needs the exercise to take over the wartime operational control (OPCON) from the US at an early date, but it’s worth noting that not only is this year’s exercise in a scaled-back manner, but the much-expected Full Operational Capability (FOC) test necessary for the OPCON transfer will be limited too. The test, aimed to validate whether the Combined Forces Command that will exercise the wartime OPCON is capable of doing the job, is at the heart of the planned OPCON transfer between the two countries.
美国拜登政府在这一问题上维持什么样的立场，这将还是个未知数。拜登团队或会比特朗普政府更密切审视细节问题，探讨相关决定是否符合韩美协议。加之新冠疫情的影响，文在寅想在其任期内收回战时指挥权将难上加难。
The Biden administration’s stance on this issue is unknown.Thought it may give a closer scrutiny of the details than the previous administration to see if relevant decisions conform to the bilateral agreement. This, coupled with the pandemic, has made it less likely for Moon Jae-in to take back the OPCON during his term.
另一方面，众多韩国民间团体集会要求停止此次军演，称担忧军演会令朝鲜半岛局势再次陷入僵局。
However, many civic groups in ROK have assembled in protest against the joint exercise, citing worries that it may throw the peninsular situation into a deadlock again.
6•15共同宣言实践韩方委员会全北本部3月4日召开记者会主张，为降低军事紧张局势，应该中断韩美联合军事演习，努力为对话奠定基础。韩国庆尚南道101个组织团体也同样发出声明要求中断演习，敦促维护半岛和平。
The northern headquarters of the South Korean Committee for the Implementation for the June 15 South-North Joint Declaration held a press conference on March 4, calling for the suspension of ROK-US joint military exercises in order to mitigate the military tension and lay the foundation for south-north dialogue. Another 101 organizations at Gyeongsangnam-do also released a statement demanding the exercise’s suspension in defense of peace on the peninsula.
外交学院国际关系研究所教授李海东认为，此次军演会恶化和加剧朝鲜半岛紧张局势，进行军演本身，传递给朝鲜的信号就很消极。同时，这不仅会妨碍朝美之间的沟通，也会阻碍朝韩之间的合作。
The military exercise will worsen the Korean peninsular tension as it sends a passive signal to DPRK. It will not only obstruct communication between Pyongyang and Washington, but will disrupt cooperation between Pyongyang and Seoul too, said Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University.
不过，杨希雨指出，军演虽然一定会造成半岛局势的再度升温，但这种升温的限度会有一个非常明显的界限，不会爆发直接的军事冲突。“因为双方谁都不想打破目前这种不战不和的僵持局面，双方的博弈和互动，基本上都处在一个可控的范围之内。”
But Yang Xiyu also pointed out that even though the military exercise will heat up the situation on the peninsula again, the impact will be very limited, and a military conflict is out of the question because “neither party is willing to break the current stalemate, and their interaction and wrestling are basically kept controllable.”
