The USNI News reported on March 10 that the US Department of Defense is again considering a reduction in aircraft carrier force structure as part of the upcoming Fiscal Year 2022 budget submission to Congress. In order to meet a proposed USD 704 billion to USD 708 billion topline for the first Biden Defense Department budget, the Office of the Secretary of Defense is weighing how it could build in savings by reducing the carrier force, including decommissioning the USS Harry S. Truman ahead of time, the report cited two sources as saying.

据美海军研究协会网站3月10日报道，美国防部将再次考虑在向国会提交的2022财年预算中削减航空母舰数量。报道称，两位军方人士透露，为满足拜登政府执政第一年7040亿至7080亿美元的国防预算底线，美国防部长办公室正考虑“如何通过减少航母数量来节省开支”。其中包括将提前退役“杜鲁门”号航母，以满足国防预算削减的需要。

Analysts said by “leaking” its intention of meeting the budget requirement by carrier decommissioning, the Pentagon is actually putting pressure on the government to grant it more budget.

分析人士指出，美军“泄露”将通过退役航母节省预算的消息，意在以退为进，以达到向美政府施压、变相要求追加预算的目的。

First, the Pentagon is seeking Congress’s support. Many congress members are closely linked with the shipbuilders in their constituencies, and decommissioning an aircraft carrier will exert serious negative effects on those companies and their emplyees. To ensure their votes, the congresspeople will try to stop the Biden administration from agreeing to the premature decommissioning of USS Harry S. Truman, just like how they blocked the Trump administration’s plan to decommission the carrier in 2019. Not only will history repeat itself this year, but Congress may even vindictively increase the naval budget.

一是争取国会支持。美国会诸多议员与所在选区的造船企业有着千丝万缕的联系，削减一艘航母将对造船企业及工人产生重大负面影响。为确保“票仓”稳固，一些议员势必会形成反对势力，阻止拜登政府提前退役“杜鲁门”号航母。2019年，特朗普政府提前退役“杜鲁门”号航母的计划就曾在国会的强烈反对下不了了之。此次不仅很有可能重蹈覆辙，还可能引发国会报复性增加海军预算的情况。

Second, the Pentagon is trying to sway public opinions. The “leak” from the US military has made a big splash in the country. American media, calculating the number, claimed that spending another USD 3.4 billion to keep USS Harry S. Truman running for another 25 years is much cheaper than building a new Ford-class carrier. It seems the argument over whether to put USS Harry S. Truman out of service may very well gain the US military more funds from Congress instead of less.

二是占据舆论主动。美军此次“泄露”的消息在国内引发强烈反响。美国媒体算“经济账”称，继续投入34亿美元即可让“杜鲁门”号航母再运行25年，这与建造一艘福特级航母相比便宜了不少。目前看来，有关是否退役“杜鲁门”号航母的争论，可能会让美军从国会争取到额外资金，而不是削减成本。

Third, the Pentagon is making its own plan for military development. According to the plan previously released by the US Department of Defense, the military plans to build a “super fleet” of 500 vessels by 2045 and 355 manned surface vessels by 2035. The carrier decommissioning plan “leaked” this time doesn’t conflict with that. On the one hand, if the Pentagon is determined to decommission the carrier, it will invest more in building light carriers or small-scale naval combat platforms. On the other hand, if the US navy does secure more budget this time, it will have the resources to materialize the 2045 or 2035 plan.

三是布局建设发展。根据美国防部此前公布的计划，美军计划在2045年建造一支拥有500艘舰艇的“超级舰队”，在2035年建造355艘有人驾驶水面舰艇。美军此次“泄露”的航母退役计划，与上述规划并不冲突。一方面，如果美军未来决心退役航母，将把更多经费用于轻型航母或小型海军作战平台的建设上。另一方面，如果美海军借此机会争取到更多国防预算，势必将推动2045年规划和“355艘军舰计划”的落实。

The Biden administration is expected to announce the FY2022 defense budget soon, with moderate reduction being the general tone and military development priorities being the focus. The news about the carrier reduction is just a trick played by the US navy, posing as “victim”, to advance its combat capability development while covering up the frequent accidents and scandals in recent years. The budget scramble within the Pentagon will only get fiercer going forward, and its potential influence should not be underestimated.

据悉,拜登政府预计将于近期公布2022财年国防预算，总基调是适度削减总额，并将预算重点投向美军优先发展领域。此次传出削减航母数量的消息，是美海军试图以“受害者”形象，掩盖近年来事故频发、丑闻不断的事实，推进作战力量建设的一种手段。未来，美军的预算之争或将愈演愈烈，潜在影响不容低估。

For one thing, different services may vie more fiercely for interests. Given the general tone of austerity, America’s military services are sure to fight more fiercely for the limited budget. The army’s reform and transformation program, the navy’s expansion plan, the air force’s war-preparedness program, and the modernization program aimed at a strategic nuclear force covering the land, sea and airspace – all of them require immense investments.

一方面，军种利益之争或将加剧。在过“紧日子”的基调下，美军各军种势必围绕预算“蛋糕”进行更加激烈的争夺。无论是陆军的改革转型计划、海军的“扩军计划”，还是空军的战备建设，以及“三位一体”战略核力量的现代化项目，都需要巨额投入。

For another, regional security situation is imperiled. Foreign media reported that the US Indo-Pacific Command had recently applied to Congress for USD 27 billion for six years from FY2022 to effectively deter potential rivals. American troops stationed in Europe and the Middle East also plan to spend more money on reinforcing the deployments to ramp up the deterrence. It’s likely that the US military will use the budget to kick off a new round of global arms race, which will imperil the security situation in relevant regions.

另一方面，地区安全形势面临隐忧。据外媒报道，为有效威慑潜在作战对手，美军印太司令部日前向国会申请了自2022财年起6年内总计270亿美元的预算。驻欧洲、中东等地的美军也计划增加经费投入、强化兵力部署，进一步威慑潜在对手。未来，美军或将借预算“杠杆”，撬动全球新一轮军备竞赛，相关地区安全形势面临考验。