The US recently held a "two plus two" meeting respectively with Japan and ROK, holding a big political show to put pressure on China, but the bilateral and trilateral relations among them are more talk than substance. Washington is trying to intensify its alliance with Tokyo and Seoul, and their interactions send three messages.
美日、美韩不久前分别举行“2+2”会谈，美国利用日韩舞台上演了一出对中国施压的政治秀，但在美日韩双边和三边关系上却虚多实少。对于华盛顿意图强化的美日韩同盟，这次美日美韩互动传递出三个信息：
First, the US-Japan-ROK alliance is recovering as the US returns to East Asia on a high profile. The inking of defense expense agreements with the US at basically the previous sharing proportion has reassured Japan and ROK and given them more confidence in their mighty ally.
一，美国高调宣示重返东亚，美日韩同盟有所恢复。美日、美韩相继达成防务经费协议，基本维持此前分摊水平，给日韩吃下了“定心丸”，一定程度上提振了日韩两国对美信心。
Second, Japan and ROK respond differently to America's anti-China approach. Japan and ROK have reacted differently to America's undisguised clique-forming moves. While the Moon Jae-in administration is chiefly concerned about the Korean peninsula and inclined to keep a balance between Beijing and Washington by adopting an ambiguous stance, the Yoshihide Suga government, deeply troubled by the epidemic and political scandals, hopes to deflect domestic problems by hyping up the "China threat", as many observed.
二，美国竭力推行遏华路线，日韩表现温差明显。对于美方毫不掩饰的拉拢，日韩则表现迥异。韩国文在寅政府主要关切是朝鲜半岛事务，倾向于以“战略模糊”在中美间保持平衡。不少人认为，当前菅义伟内阁深受疫情冲击和政治丑闻困扰，有意通过炒作“中国威胁”转移国内视线，缓解执政压力。
Third, the US-Japan-ROK alliance is not iron-clad due to inherent conflicts. Washington didn't say anything about what it would do regarding the Japan-ROK conflicts during the recent trip. Still, it only released their discussions about trilateral cooperation to the public, indicating its inability to resolve the feud between the two countries. Besides, no progress was made on the reorganization of American troops stationed in Japan and the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) -- respectively, the chief concern of Tokyo and Seoul, so conflicts and divergences will keep popping up in the future.
三，同盟内固有矛盾难解，美日韩“铁三角”恐难实现。这次美方没有透露就日韩矛盾做工作的信息，仅对外表示讨论了美日韩合作，看来美国对于解决日韩间的难题也是有心无力。此外，在日方关切的驻日美军重组、韩方关切的战时指挥权移交问题上目前都无进展，未来美日和美韩之间矛盾分歧还可能不时显现。
Washington obviously wants to turn Northeast Asia into a forward position in its competition with and containment of China, but how can it forget the region is home to China, Japan and ROK alike. Tokyo and Seoul should think deeply about the role the US-Japan-ROK alliance will play in the region.
显然，美方想把东北亚打造成对华竞争遏制的前沿阵地,但东北亚也是中日韩三国共同安身立命之所。美日韩同盟对于本地区到底应该发挥怎样的作用，值得日韩两国深思。
From the perspective of current circumstances and Northeast Asia’s long-term development, Japan and ROK should consider the following points when helping the US forge a military alliance.
在当前形势下，着眼于东北亚的长远发展，日韩对美国打造军事同盟体系应考虑几个问题。
They should abandon the Cold-War mentality and pursue common security. As an outcome of the Cold War, the US-Japan-ROK alliance has been upholding "bloc security", an idea that will certainly unsettle the countries outside the bloc and aggravate regional arms race.
第一，摒弃冷战思维，追求共同安全。美日韩同盟是冷战产物，长期以来奉行“集团安全”信条，但在这种思维指导下，小集团的安全势必带来集团外国家的不安全感，其结果只会导致地区军备竞赛的螺旋升级。
China, on the other hand, advocates the new outlook of common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security that goes beyond ideological division and struggle over regional leadership, and replaces bloc security with common security. As far as peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia are concerned, Japan and ROK should set an example for maintaining the common security of regional countries.
中国倡导共同、综合、合作和可持续的新安全观，主张超越意识形态分歧和地区主导权之争，以共同安全取代集团安全。着眼于地区的和平与繁荣，也需要日韩在维护地区国家共同安全方面切实作出表率。
They should deal with sensitive issues cautiously and not hype up external threats. The purpose of an exclusive military alliance is to cope with common enemies from the outside, so the US has to constantly exaggerate the threats from China and DPRK to justify its attempt to form such an alliance with Japan and ROK. Those two countries, being located in Northeast Asia, should be prudent and cautious when it comes to highly sensitive and complicated issues.
第二，不炒作外部威胁，慎重对待敏感问题。排他性军事同盟的存在意义在于应对共同的外部敌人，美国打造美日韩军事同盟需要不断渲染“中朝威胁”来维系同盟的存在必要。在一些高度敏感复杂的问题上，美日韩需要把握分寸，谨言慎行。
The US should have realized that its interest and strategic considerations don't necessarily coincide with those of Japan and ROK as those two, although highly dependent on the US in security, also have profound economic connections with China and therefore don’t wish to see a full-blown confrontation. As ROK's Minister of Foreign Affairs Chung Eui-yong said, Seoul will not pick sides between Beijing and Washington.
美国也应认识到美日韩三方的利益诉求和战略考量并不尽一致，日韩两国虽然安全上依靠美国，但同时在华经济利益深厚，不希望与中国陷入全面对抗。正如韩国外长郑义溶所说，韩方不会在中美之间选边站。
They should display sincerity for dialogue and take tangible steps to push for the non-nuclearization of the Korean peninsula. The crux of nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula lies in the conflict between Washington and Pyongyang, and the only way to solve it is to accommodate all parties' security concerns through political dialogue and peaceful means. Dumping sanctions and pressure on DPRK won't help, and strengthening military deployments and exercises against DPRK will only throw the regional situation back to the abyss of tension.
第三，显示对话诚意，务实推动半岛无核化进程。朝核问题的症结在于朝美矛盾，核心是要解决各方安全关切，通过政治对话和平解决是唯一出路。对朝加码制裁施压无济于事，强化对朝军事部署和军演只会刺激地区局势重回紧张。
The US, Japan and ROK are reinforcing the trilateral relations, especially in the bundling of military interests. China, while resolutely safeguarding its own sovereignty and security interests, should insist on peace, reconciliation, and cooperation in Northeast Asia. It should make continued efforts to manage territorial and maritime disputes through dialogue and consultation, deepen economic and trade cooperation in the region, promote defense and security dialogue, and enhance political and security mutual trust among regional countries.
美日韩重新拉紧三边关系，尤其是军事安全上强化捆绑。中国在坚定维护自身主权安全利益的前提下，应当坚持东北亚和平、和解、合作的原则，致力于通过对话磋商管控领土和海洋争端，深化地区经贸合作，推动防务安全对话，增进地区国家间的政治安全互信。
The US, Japan and ROK should give up any illusion of containing China and instead work with it to jointly establish a long-term peace mechanism – that's the only way to ensure lasting peace and security in Northeast Asia.
美日韩也唯有摒弃不切实际的遏华念想，与中国共同致力于地区长效和平机制建设，才能真正实现东北亚的长治久安。
(The author is a researcher with the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies at the China Institute of International Studies.)
Editor's note: This article is originally published on huanqiu.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
