By Guo Xiaobing
郭晓兵
There have been some conspicuous changes in the field of international arms control this year, with a series of arms control treaties or agreements likely to be renewed or restarted. This has, to some extent, curbed the severe erosion of the international arms control system in the past few years.
自2021年伊始，国际军控的风向出现了一些显著变化。一系列军控条约、协议或得以延续，或有望重启。过去几年里国际军控体系备受侵蚀的趋势得到一定程度的遏制。
However, all sorts of conflicts are still fermenting in nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and regional nuclear hot issues. So, the international arms control situation is far from optimistic.
然而，在核裁军、防扩散、地区核热点等领域，各种矛盾仍在持续发酵。国际军控总体形势仍不容乐观，可谓“乍暖还寒”。
Nuclear disarmament in the US and Russia – structural conflicts to solve, hard nuts to crack
美俄核裁军——存在结构性矛盾，有“硬骨头”要啃
With the changed political situation in the US, the downward spiral of international arms control has been primarily halted. Soon after Biden was sworn in as US president, he held a phone talk with his Russian counterpart, and both leaders agreed to renew the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START ), the only remaining arms control treaty between the two countries. Washington and Moscow have some common grounds on bilateral nuclear disarmament.
随着美国国内政局变化，国际军控形势的糟糕势头目前终于得到初步遏制。拜登就任美国总统不久，美俄两国元首迅速通话，就《新削减战略武器条约》续约达成一致，使这一两国间仅存的军控条约“续命”成功。双方对于推进双边核裁军进程有一定的共同语言。
However, they are not likely to make any substantial progress in this field in a short period.
但也应看到，美俄军控短期内并不会取得太大的实质性进展。
First, the US and Russia have structural conflicts in various areas, ranging from geopolitics, human rights to cyber security. The Biden administration views Russia as a major rival and has been taking a tough stance toward it.
一是因为美俄在地缘政治、人权、网络安全等领域存在一系列结构性矛盾，拜登政府视俄罗斯为“最大对手”，对俄表态强硬。
Second, the two countries have many hard nuts to crack regarding nuclear arms control. For instance, Moscow insists on including missile defense in bilateral strategic security dialogue because strategic offensive and defensive weapons are inseparable. Still, Washington refuses to restrict the development of missile defense systems. Washington wants to talk about tactical nuclear weapons, citing Moscow’s disproportionate superiority in the field, but Moscow refuses to respond to that.
二是美俄在核军控问题上还有不少“硬骨头”要啃。例如，俄罗斯主张战略安全对话必须要谈导弹防御问题，因为进攻性战略武器与防御性战略武器是不可分割的，而美国坚决拒绝对导弹防御系统的发展施加限制。美国想谈战术核武器问题，认为俄罗斯在该问题上占有不对称优势，俄罗斯则对此不予回应。
Third, the Biden administration needs more time to adjust its nuclear strategy. Biden’s nuclear approach differs widely from his predecessor’s, and the revised strategy won’t be out until the end of the year. As a result, the US-Russia strategic security dialogue will hardly make any substantial progress within this year.
三是拜登政府的核战略调整尚需时日。拜登政府与特朗普政府的核战略取向差异非常大，最早也要到年底相关调整方案才会明朗起来。受其影响，美俄战略安全对话年内较难取得实质性进展。
Nuclear non-proliferation – old barriers gone, new conflicts on
核不扩散——旧障碍虽已清除，新矛盾仍待解决
The Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT ) is an important cornerstone of the international non-proliferation system and a vital part of the post-WWII global security system. It holds a review conference every five years. Judging from the current situation, the 10th NPT review conference scheduled for this August holds both good and bad news to offer.
《不扩散核武器条约》是国际核不扩散体系的重要基石，是战后国际安全体系的重要组成部分，每5年进行一次审议。就当前的形势来看，定于今年8月举行的第10次审议大会有喜有忧。
The good news is that the roadblock causing the last conference to fail has been removed. The 9th review conference held in 2015 didn’t yield a final document; four years later, it was successfully held again in November 2019 and adopted a political declaration and a final report, which cleared the way for the next NPT review conference.
喜的是导致上一次大会失败的“拦路石”已被搬开。2015年第9次审议大会未能达成最后文件，4年后，这一会议终于在2019年11月成功举办，并通过了政治宣言和最后报告，从而为新一轮《不扩散核武器条约》审议大会扫除了障碍。
The bad news is that some non-nuclear states don’t fully understand the role played by nuclear weapons in maintaining strategic stability and have made too radical demands. It is a crucial mission of all contracting parties to further advance the three pillars of the NPT treaty , namely nuclear disarmament, nuclear non-proliferation and peaceful use of nuclear energy, in a balanced way, and truly enable the NPT to play its role in preserving international peace and promoting human development. All parties need to make united efforts toward that goal.
忧的是部分无核武器国家对核武器在战略稳定中的作用认知不足，其主张有些过于激进。进一步平衡推进核裁军、核不扩散与和平利用核能三大支柱，赋予条约维护国际和平、促进人类发展的时代意义，是所有缔约国肩负的重要使命，各方仍需共同努力。
Iran nuclear deal – mounting obstacles despite softened attitude of US and Iran
伊朗核协议——美伊均有缓和意向，阻力依然重重
Of all the regional nuclear hot issues, the Iranian nuclear issue is most likely to see new changes. The Biden administration has taken an active attitude toward returning to the deal and claimed it would rejoin the agreement as long as Tehran strictly abides by it.
在地区核热点问题中，伊朗核问题最有可能出现新变化。拜登政府对于重返伊朗核协议态度积极，声称如果伊朗严格遵守协议，美国将重新加入该协议。
But it’s not easy for Washington to go back to the agreement, given that the White House is facing strong resistance at home to relaxing the sanctions on Iran. There is a slew of technical difficulties that prevent Iran from fully performing the deal in such areas as uranium enrichment and stock and R&D of the new centrifuge.
但是美国重返伊朗核协议面临不少困难。拜登政府放宽对伊朗制裁在美国国内有不小阻力，伊朗在铀浓缩丰度、储量、新型离心机研发等方面重新履约存在一系列技术问题。
Moreover, Iran will have its presidential election in June, and the hawkish forces are gaining ground at home, which will bring new uncertainties to the bilateral dialogue. It’s foreseeable that even if both sides have the will, the process of restarting the Iran nuclear deal will be a thorny journey with bargaining overtures every step all the way.
此外，伊朗即将于今年6月举行总统大选，伊朗国内强硬派的势头不断看涨，这也将给双方的对话带来新变数。可以预见，尽管双方都有意愿，但重返核协议的过程仍将一波三折，每一步都将充满各种试探与讨价还价。
(The author is director of the Institute of Arms Control and Security Studies , China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)
