By Zhan Debin
詹德斌
After the US turned a deaf ear to the DPRK’s strong warnings against the US and ROK’s 9-day routine joint military exercise in ROK in the middle of this month, it intentionally ramped up the incitation in response to which DPRK test-fired missiles to exercise its right to self-defense. However, the US and Japan then accused DPRK of making provocations, violating the UN Security Council’s resolution on sanction, and threatening the situation on the Korean peninsula.
美韩军队本月中旬在韩国举行为期9天的例行联合军演，朝鲜对此发出强烈警告。美国不仅听而不闻而且故意加码刺激，朝鲜随后以试射导弹来行使自卫权。接着，美日又第一时间称朝方“挑衅”“违反安理会制裁决议”“威胁局势”等等。
On the other hand, Washington and Tokyo have hyped public opinions and imposed diplomatic pressure to subject ROK, an immediately concerned party on the peninsular situation that displayed some signs of deviation earlier on, completely to Washington’s will and consequently strengthen the US-ROK and US-Japan-ROK security cooperation.
另一方面,身处朝鲜半岛局势中的韩国，由于美日舆论营造和外交施压的影响，迫使此前被认为表现出些许“离心”倾向的韩国完全服从美国意志，进而强化美韩、美日韩安全合作。
Seoul needs to stay sober-minded in the face of the US and Japan’s actions on the Korean nuclear issue.
然而，对于美日在朝核问题上的这番操作，首尔无疑需要冷静思考和应对。
Ever since the Biden administration took power, Washington and Seoul have been releasing different policy signals on the Korean nuclear issue. While Seoul hopes that the White House pays more attention to their alliance and listens more attentively to the ROK side, the two sides obviously didn’t see eye to eye on their DPRK policy and China policy, as evidenced during US Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Austin’s ROK visit. Washington was very displeased by that.
从拜登政府上台开始，美韩就在朝核问题上释放出不同政策信号。韩国期待拜登政府更加重视同盟，更多倾听韩方声音。但在美国国务卿布林肯和国防部长奥斯汀访韩期间，美韩之间不仅在对朝而且在对华政策上分歧明显。对此，美国显然不满。
It’s understandable that Seoul doesn’t fully succumb to Washington on these issues. Its top priority is to ensure peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, and it is eager to further consolidate the foundation for that since President Moon Jae-in has only one year left in office.
韩国在这些问题上不完全屈从于美国是可以理解的。因为韩国的优先课题是确保朝鲜半岛和平稳定，特别是在文在寅总统任期只剩下一年的情况下，韩国更加急于推动固牢半岛和平稳定的基础。
China shares ROK’s stance in this connection and is willing to actively help it implement the Korean peninsular peace process, which the US views as unacceptable. ROK, out of considerations for its own interests, doesn’t fully follow America’s lead, and the Biden administration, which prides itself on heeding the allies’ concerns, cannot publicly pressure it. Hence, it starts hyping the Korean nuclear issue.
在这方面，中国同韩国有着相似立场，也愿意积极协助韩方落实朝鲜半岛和平进程。但美国却视此为“大忌”。韩国出于自身利益考虑没有完全“听美国话”，标榜重视盟友意见的拜登政府又不好公开施压，于是就开始炒作朝核问题。
The US knows that the best way to tame ROK is manipulating the Korean nuclear issue, especially fabricating the so-called “threats from DPRK”. Washington and its allies clamored on a high profile that DPRK’s test-firing of short-range missiles was a “show of force”, “substantive provocation” and “major threat”. However, these languages and actions, seemingly to pressure Pyongyang to give up nuclear weapons, were actually intended to incite and induce it to make harsher responses, particularly military escalation. Facing provocations from the US and its allies, DPRK will very likely continue to take actions in self-defense; once it did, the US and Japan would scream “DPRK threats” and demand the US Security Council to discuss Pyongyang’s violation of relevant sanctions.
美国清楚，迫使韩国听话的最好手段就是在朝核问题上做文章，尤其是制造所谓“朝鲜威胁”。美国及其盟友高调宣称朝鲜试射短程导弹是“武力示威”“武力挑衅”“重大威胁”，表面目的是向朝鲜施压、要求朝鲜弃核，实则是通过语言和行动刺激、诱导朝鲜作出更强硬的回应，特别是军事上的升级。面对美国及其盟友的挑衅，朝鲜很可能继续采取行使自卫权的活动。而一旦朝鲜那样做了，美国包括日本等就会高喊“朝鲜威胁”，要求联合国安理会讨论朝鲜违反制裁问题等等。
At that time, it would be natural for the US, ROK and Japan to consult and coordinate their stance. While Washington and Tokyo pretend concerns about and dissatisfaction with DPRK’s responses, they are feeling satisfied at heart because their ruse has worked, and the conservative forces within ROK would ask Seoul to strengthen the security cooperation with Washington and Tokyo and stay in tune with them to cope with the “DPRK threats”.
这样一来，要求美韩、美日韩进行磋商、协调一致就是自然而然的事情了。对于朝鲜更多的不满和回应，美日也会佯装忧虑和不满，但实则拍手称快。因为如此一来，韩国国内保守势力里应外合，要求韩国政府加强美韩安全合作，加强美日韩协调一致，以应对“朝鲜威胁”。
The US will also take this opportunity to announce its intensified protection of ROK, even going so far as to demand an upgrade of the THAAD anti-missile system deployed in the country. Under the pressure of public opinions, the Moon Jae-in administration will further lose the initiative and position to seek dialogue with DPRK and will be cornered to a position where it has no choice but to cater to Washington and Tokyo’s demands. As a result, it will once again release wrong signals to DPRK, the South-North mutual trust will be further undermined, and the Korean peninsular peace process will become even farther out of reach.
美国还将借此机会宣布“加强对韩国的保护”，甚至要求升级在韩部署的“萨德”反导系统。届时在舆论压力下，文在寅政府将进一步失去主张与朝鲜对话的“名分”和主导权，选择余地日益变小，最后被逼得不得不积极回应美日要求。结果无疑就是再次向朝鲜释放错误信号，韩朝双方互信更加受损，朝鲜半岛和平进程更加遥不可及。
The incumbent ROK government should be sober-minded about the current situation and not harbor too rosy expectations about the new US administration. In fact, the result of the US-ROK negotiations on defense expense sharing has already shown clearly that although different from Donald Trump in many ways, Joe Biden shares his predecessor’s view that American interests always come first. What’s changed is that Trump, the businessman, is shouting his “America first” slogan out aloud, making outrageous demands on allies outright, while Biden, the politician, is peddling coordination and collaboration with the allies, hiding his iron hand in a velvet glove. Seoul should remain calm and avoid being led astray by Washington. Otherwise, it will be the one to pay the piper when the peninsular situation deteriorates.
对此，韩国现政府应该有更加清醒的认识，不应对美国新政府抱有过于乐观的期待。其实美韩防卫费分担谈判的结果已经清楚表明，尽管与前任特朗普总统有所不同，但拜登将自身利益置于优先地位没有任何变化，变化的只是一个以商业逻辑，高喊“美国优先”，要求比较露骨；一个以政客逻辑，高喊美国与盟友协调一致，实乃笑里藏刀。这就要求韩国冷静，别被华盛顿的节奏带着走。否则如果半岛局势更加恶化，最大受害者还是韩国自己。
As a close neighbor to the Korean peninsula, China doesn’t wish to see the tension in the region and supports the ROK government in pushing forward the peninsular peace process through peaceful coexistence and constructive dialogues.
作为朝鲜半岛的近邻，中国无论如何不希望看到朝鲜半岛局势紧张，支持韩国政府推动朝鲜半岛和平进程，希望朝韩和平共处并通过对话解决问题。
(The author is director and professor with the Center for Korean Peninsula Studies (CKPS) at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics.)
Editor's note: This article is originally published on huanqiu.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
