By Cheng Xizhong
成锡忠
Recently I’ve noticed positive signs in the India-Pakistan relation after years of fierce confrontation. This would be good news if they could lead to substantive improvement in bilateral relations, which will be conducive to the peace and stability in the South Asian Subcontinent and to the wellbeing of the people in the region.
最近，我感觉到印度和巴基斯坦，在经历数年的强烈对抗后，关系似乎出现松动迹象。如果真能实现关系改善，那是好事，有利于南亚次大陆的和平与稳定，这对该地区的人民是一个福音。
India and Pakistan had three wars in history. Still, they have managed to keep the general situation stable for the next 50 years after the third India-Pakistan war in 1971, despite the constant tension, the approaching of a flashpoint of conflict, and the frequent armed skirmishes along Kashmir’s Line of Control.
纵观印度和巴基斯坦关系，两国之间曾发生 3 次战争，自 1971 年第三次印巴战争以来，虽曾多次出现高度紧张，甚至曾出现战争一触即发的情况，而且克什米尔控制线一带频繁发生交火事件，但 50 年来局势未曾失控。
An important reason for the overall stability that has lasted half a century is that both India and Pakistan are no longer what they were 50 years ago – they have matured, and their leaders are very capable of controlling the situation.
总体和平局势维持了 50 年，一个重要原因，是印巴已不再是 50 年前的国家。两国逐步走向成熟，两国领导人都有很强的控局能力。
In the past 20 years and more, the US-launched Afghan war has caused terrorism to spread amuck in the South Asian region, with constant terrorist attacks happening in India and Pakistan, which has made bilateral relations more complicated. Their relationship seems to have fallen into a vicious cycle – terrorist attacks cause tension, both parties accuse the other of supporting terrorism. They cool down and improve the relation, but new terrorist attacks create tension again.
近 20 多年来，主要由于美国阿富汗战争导致南亚地区恐怖主义蔓延，印巴两国境内频繁发生恐怖袭击事件，这给两国关系增添了更加复杂的因素。从而，两国关系基本形成由恐怖袭击事件引起的紧张，相互指责对方支持恐怖主义活动，到冷静下来逐步改善关系，然后又由于发生新的恐怖袭击事件，造成关系更为紧张，这样的一个恶性循环。
Both China and Pakistan are peace-loving countries and two important forces to safeguard peace and stability of the region and beyond. Especially since Imran Khan came into office in August 2018, he has been making great efforts to improve the relationship with India, and the positive responses from New Delhi have proved that Islamabad’s diplomatic efforts have taken positive effects.
中国和巴基斯坦都是爱好和平的国家，是维护世界和地区和平与稳定的重要力量。特别是伊姆兰 • 汗 2018 年 8 月执政以来，一直致力于改善与印度的关系，并为此做出不懈努力。因此，可以说，这次印度方面做出积极回应，说明巴基斯坦的外交努力正在产生积极效果。
China has also actively and properly handled the relationship with Pakistan, and the situation in their border areas has been mitigated lately. This, coupled with the beginning of strategic dialogues between China and the US after Biden took office, has created a regional environment for the amelioration of India-Pakistan relations. Whether this relationship will turn for the better from now on mainly rests with New Delhi’s sincerity, and two issues are critical here.
中国积极稳妥处理与印度的关系，最近边境局势有所缓和，以及拜登政府上台后中美开启战略对话，客观上为印巴关系的改善创造了地区环境。预测未来一段时间印巴关系能否有所改善，主要看印度方面的诚意。其中，有两个问题非常关键。
First, the Kashmir dispute lies at the heart of India-Pakistan relations. Pakistan has been supporting the Kashmir people’s fight for national autonomy morally, politically, and diplomatically as that concerns its core interests. India must create a favorable environment to resume dialogues, respect the Kashmir people’s right to national autonomy, and stop military suppression in the Indian-controlled Kashmir.
第一，克什米尔争端是印巴关系的核心问题。巴基斯坦长期以来一直在道义上、政治上、外交上支持克什米尔人民争取民族自决的斗争。这关系到巴基斯坦的核心利益。印度必须为恢复对话创造有利环境，尊重克什米尔人民的民族自决权，停止在印控克什米尔地区的军事镇压行动。
Second, terrorism is a common threat to both India and Pakistan as well as to all regional countries. For years New Delhi and Islamabad have been accusing each other of supporting terrorism, which is the most important reason for the drastic fluctuations of bilateral ties. The only way to eliminate terrorism is for the two countries to work together and crack down on violent terrorist activities. Any attempt by either party to harm the other party’s social stability and economic development through a “proxy war” will end up hurting the initiator itself rather than the target. This has been proved in history repeatedly.
第二，恐怖主义是印巴两国面临的共同威胁，也是所有地区国家面临的共同威胁。多年来，印巴两国在这个问题上相互指责，这是印巴关系出现剧烈波动的最重要原因。消除恐怖主义的唯一办法，是两国建立合作机制，共同致力于打击恐怖主义活动。任何试图利用 " 代理人战争 "，破坏对方社会稳定和经济发展的企图，受伤害的不但是对方，而且是己方。这已经被历史所反复证明。
(The author is a visiting professor at Southwest University of Political Science and Law and also a senior fellow of the Charhar Institute in Beijing.)
Editor's note: This article is originally published on haiwainet.cn, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article are solely the author's personal views.
