By Guo Xiaobing
郭晓兵
Britain recently released an evaluation report, unveiling its long-term strategic blueprint after Brexit. According to the report, Britain will significantly adjust its nuclear strategy, which indicates three features from the perspective of arms control.
英国不久前发布规划脱欧后长期战略蓝图的评估报告。其中一大变化就是大幅调整核战略。从军控角度看，英国核战略调整有三大特点。
First, the number of Britain's nuclear warheads will rebound. Since the end of the Cold War, Britain has been cutting its nuclear warhead stockpile. In 2010, the British government pledged to reduce its nuclear warhead stockpile to 180 by the mid-2020s. However, this time it announced to reverse its previous policy of nuclear disarmament over the past 30 years and instead plans to increase the number of nuclear warheads to 260 at most, an increase of more than 40%.
一是核弹头数量触底反弹。冷战结束以来，英国核弹头数量一直呈削减趋势，2010年时承诺到2020年代中期削减到不足180枚。但此次战略评估逆转英国30年来的核裁军走势，转而提出要将核弹头上限增至260枚，增幅高达40%。
Second, Britain plans to lower the threshold to use nuclear weapons, announcing that it would resort to nuclear arms against threats from “emerging technologies.” Previously, it adopted the policy of using nuclear weapons mainly to respond to threats from nuclear, biological, chemical and other weapons of mass destruction. The newly added “emerging technology” threats, according to the British media, will include cyberattacks, AI, encryption and laser weapons.
二是降低核武器使用门槛，宣称要使用核武器对付新兴技术威胁。此前，英国的核武器主要用于对付核、生、化等大规模杀伤性武器。而此次提出核武器还要用于对付新兴技术威胁。据英国媒体透露，所谓的“新兴技术”包括网络、人工智能、加密和激光武器等。
Third, Britain starts to maintain “deliberate ambiguity” of its nuclear policy and keep secret the stockpile of nuclear warheads deployed instead of making it public. Before that, Britain had always boasted about its transparency in nuclear weapons. Now it announced that it would no longer unveil its nuclear warhead stockpile and the numbers of warheads deployed and missiles in an attempt to confuse enemies and increase the difficulty of their attacks.
三是保持所谓“刻意模糊”，部署核弹头数量由透明转向保密。英国一向自诩在核武器透明度方面做得很好。但此次宣布不再公布实战库存弹头、部署弹头和导弹数量。其目的据说是迷惑敌人，增加对方筹划进攻的难度。
The adjustment of British nuclear strategy will have a series of adverse impacts on international nuclear arms control and non-proliferation.
英国核战略调整将给国际核军控与防扩散带来一系列负面冲击。
First, it increases the barrier to international nuclear disarmament. On the one hand, the US and Russia extended the New START Treaty at the beginning of this year, bringing hope to international nuclear disarmament despite turns and twists. Moreover, the two countries both expressed willingness to discuss new arms control plans based on the treaty. Russia has always proposed that nuclear disarmament shall take into account the nuclear arms of Britain and France. In this context, Britain’s decision to significantly increase its nuclear warhead stockpile will definitely discourage the US and Russia in the process of nuclear disarmament.
首先，它增加了国际核裁军障碍。一方面,美俄今年初紧急续签《新削减战略武器条约》，给国际核军控带来峰回路转的希望。美俄也均表示有意以此为基础讨论新的军备控制安排。但俄罗斯一直主张，核裁军也应考虑英、法核力量。英国此时大幅增加核弹头数量，势必会增加美俄进一步核裁军的难度。
On the other hand, the adjustment of British nuclear posture will bring negative impacts to the US nuclear strategy. Currently, it can be seen that the Biden administration is relatively proactive in arms control and alleged that it would adjust the nuclear policy of the previous administration and consider suspending some nuclear weapon development projects, including the W93 warhead to be deployed on the US Navy’s ballistic missile submarines. However, Britain’s nuclear weapon modernization plan relies on the development of the W93 warhead, so it will actively lobby the US Congress to earmark funds for the warhead research. To maintain its special relationship with Britain, the Biden government is likely to breach the red line and develop the W93 warhead. This is definitely not good news for international nuclear disarmament initiatives.
另一方面,英国核战略调整还将给美国核战略带来负面影响。当前，在军控问题上态度比较积极的拜登政府声言要调整前任留下的核战略，并考虑停止某些核武器研发项目，包括前任政府提出的研发下一代新型潜射核弹头W93计划。但英国的核武器现代化计划，有赖于该款核弹头的研发，因此大力游说美国国会为W93拨款。出于维护美英特殊关系的考虑，拜登政府可能突破红线，研发新型核弹头。这对国际核裁军来说绝非福音。
Second, it increases the risk of using nuclear weapons. The scope of “emerging technologies” is extensive, and their usage threshold is much lower than nuclear weapons. Britain warns that it will resort to nuclear weapons in response to attacks using “emerging technologies.” This will diversify the scenarios of nuclear weapon usage and do grave harm.
其次，它增加了核武器使用的风险。新兴技术的范围极广而且使用门槛远比核武器要低。英国威胁对此类攻击实施核报复，将使核武器的使用场景更加多样，危害不容低估。
Finally, it will impact the international nuclear non-proliferation mechanism. Out of their extreme dissatisfaction with the stagnation in nuclear disarmament, non-nuclear-weapon states signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), putting forward a series of radical measures on nuclear arms control. As a member of NATO, Britain has been sheltered by the umbrella of the US. Even so, it still intends to increase its nuclear warhead stockpile and lower nuclear arms transparency. Undoubtedly, this move will arouse discontent among non-nuclear-weapon states and cast a shadow over the 10th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) to be held in August this year. If the review conference cannot achieve substantial results , the universality and authority of the international nuclear non-proliferation mechanism will be undermined.
最后，它将冲击和削弱国际核不扩散机制。出于对核裁军进程停滞不前的极度不满，无核国家推动达成了《禁止核武器条约》，提出一系列激进的核军控主张。英国作为北约成员国躲在美国核保护伞下，还要继续增加核弹头数量，降低核力量透明度。这势必会加剧无核国家不满，使今年8月的第十届《不扩散核武器条约》审议大会蒙上阴影。如果审议大会再次流产，无疑将损害国际核不扩散机制的普遍性和权威性。
(The author is the director of the Arms Control Studies Center, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.)
Editor's note: This article is originally published on huanqiu.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
