唐奇芳
By Tang Qifang
近日，东盟四国外长密集访华引起广泛国际关注。不少学者和媒体评论说，这是中国给美国“对华包围”的有力回击，因为东盟被西方一些人视为是这个包围圈的“最后一片拼图”。然而，美国拉东盟做“一片拼图”的企图终将是一厢情愿，注定无法完成。
The recent visits by four foreign ministers of ASEAN countries to China have drawn a lot of global attention. Many scholars and media commented that this is China’s powerful response to America as ASEAN is viewed by some westerners as the “last piece of the puzzle” in its attempt at forming a besiegement around China. Yet such an attempt is just America’s wishful thinking and will never become a reality.
从历史经验来看，美国“对华包围”与东盟“中立”“自主”的原则背道而驰。1967年东盟成立时，世界正处于美苏激烈对抗的冷战期间，而越南战争正酣之际东南亚成为冷战的最前线之一。
From the perspective of historical experience, America’s attempt at besieging China contradicts ASEAN’s principle of neutrality and independence. When the association of nations was founded in 1967, the world was in the middle of the Cold War when the US and Soviet Union were in intense confrontation, and Southeast Asia became the forefront of the Cold War during the Vietnam War.
在经过最初几年的探索后，东盟国家形成了统一的对外立场，明确了“中立”“自主”的对外原则。1971年11月，东盟五国在吉隆坡联合发表具有里程碑意义的《和平、自由和中立区宣言》，提出将“承认和尊重建立东南亚和平、自由和中立区，免受外部势力任何形式的干扰”，并强调“国家无论大小，都有免受外部势力干预其内部事务的权利”。
After explorations in the initial years, ASEAN members adopted a unified foreign stance and principle of neutrality and independence. In November 1971, five ASEAN members jointly released in Kuala Lumpur the milestone Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality Declaration(ZOPFAN), in which they proposed to “secure the recognition of, and respect for, South East Asia as a Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality, free from any form or manner of interference by outside powers”, and stressed “the right of every state, large or small, to lead its national existence free from outside interference in its internal affairs”.
对于处于强国林立环境中的东盟国家来说，“中立”“自主”是生命线和立身之本。正是因为恪守这一原则，东盟才得以在风云变幻的大国博弈中屹立至今并日益发展。任何企图让东盟在大国间选边站队的举动和企图，都是对东盟生存和发展的最大威胁。东盟对这一点看得比谁都清楚，因此要求所有参与东亚峰会的伙伴国都要签署这一宣言。
For ASEAN countries that are surrounded by great powers, neutrality and independence are the lifelines and the foundation for their existence, and it is their commitment to this principle that has kept ASEAN thriving and developing amid the fast-changing major-power struggles today. Any action or attempt to force the association to pick sides between major countries poses the biggest threat to its survival and development – ASEAN is very aware of this and asked all partners attending the East Asia Summit to sign the declaration.
2020年8月8日，东盟各国外长在东盟成立53周年之际发表《关于维护东南亚和平稳定重要性的声明》，强调致力于维护东南亚地区的和平、安全、中立和稳定。在这样的时间节点和地区形势下，东盟声明的用意不言而喻：坚持“中立”“自主”，决不在大国之间选边站队。
On August 8, 2020, foreign ministers of ASEAN countries released the Statement on the Importance of Maintaining Peace and Stability in Southeast Asia at the 53rd anniversary of the founding of the association, in which they reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining peace, security, neutrality and stability in Southeast Asia. The purpose of releasing the statement at such a moment and regional situation is too clear – ASEAN will stick to their principle of neutrality and independence and will not take sides between major countries.
从现实政治来看，美国“对华包围”对东盟“中心地位”的稳固构成挑战。冷战结束，东盟国家领导人力倡东亚合作，与中国建立了对话关系。30年来，东盟在中国等伙伴国的大力支持下，对内加强成员国团结、加快共同体建设，对外建立起东亚合作机制、确立了东盟中心地位。东盟逐步发展成为具有很强内部凝聚力和国际影响力的国家集团。然而，美国沉浸在冷战思维下的“对华包围”和拉帮结派，会严重削弱东盟的内部团结和对外影响, 使东盟的中心地位遭遇严重挑战。
In terms of current politics, America’s besiegement of China challenges ASEAN’s central position. After the end of the Cold War, ASEAN leaders strongly advocated cooperation in East Asia and established a relationship of dialogue with China. In the past 30 years, ASEAN, with the strong support of China and other partners, has internally intensified solidarity among the member states and accelerated the building of a community while externally creating the East Asian cooperation mechanism and securing its own central position. It has evolved into a bloc of countries with strong internal cohesion and great international influence. However, the “China besiegement” and ganging-up pushed by Cold-War-minded Washington will seriously undermine ASEAN’s internal solidarity and external influence and challenge its central position.
一方面，美国拉拢会加剧东盟成员间分歧，导致东盟分化甚至分裂。东盟各国在政治制度、经济水平和宗教文化等领域本就极为多样，相互之间还存在领土争端等错综复杂的历史遗留问题。各国与外部大国的亲疏不一，又使其对自身利益的判断存在一定分歧甚至对立。美国介入南海、拉拢声索国等做法只会让东盟内部出现裂痕。
On the one hand, America’s roping-in will exacerbate the divergences among ASEAM members and lead the association to division, even disintegration. ASEAN members vary greatly in their political system, economic level, religious belief and culture, not to mention the complicated historical issues such as territorial disputes. Their different relations, close or loose, with major countries outside the association also cause divergences and even contradiction in their judgment of respective interests. Under such circumstances, America’s interference in the South China Sea and attempt to rope in the claimants will only drive another wedge within ASEAN.
另一方面，中美博弈升级会弱化东盟地位，导致东盟在地区边缘化。东盟主导的东亚合作机制发挥作用，前提是地区大国之间的相对平衡与合作。美国对华挑衅和压力的不断升级，致使两国在南海等问题上陷入深层次的结构性矛盾，甚至可能爆发直接冲突。这已远远超出东盟能够主导和平衡的范围。因此，中美对抗升级和在双方之间选边站队都是东盟不愿见到的。
On the other hand, an escalated China-US struggle will undermine ASEAN’s position and marginalize it in the region. The precondition for the ASEAN-led East Asian cooperation mechanism to work is a relative balance and collaboration among regional powers. If the US keeps ramping up its provocations and pressure on China, the two countries will fall into deep-rooted structural conflicts on issues including the South China Sea, even with the possibility of direct conflicts, and that is far beyond the pale where ASEAN is able to lead and balance. Therefore, the association doesn’t want to see an escalated confrontation between China and the US, nor does it want to take sides between them.
从长远利益来看，美国“对华包围”和东盟“复苏发展”的目标难以协调。东盟发展的最大成就之一是经济进步，经济共同体为东盟共同体建设打下坚实基础，《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）的成功签署是东盟在东亚重要作用的体现。这一系列成就的取得都与中国-东盟合作的贡献密不可分。
As far as long-term interests are concerned, America’s “China besiegement” cannot go in parallel with ASEAN’s goal of “recovery and development”. One of its greatest achievements is economic progress, as the economic community has laid a solid foundation for building the ASEAN community, and the successful signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) well proves ASEAN’s important position in East Asia. All these achievements couldn’t have been made without the close collaboration between China and the association.
建立对话关系30年来，中国一直与东盟保持密切沟通、务实合作，目前双方已相为第一大贸易伙伴和最重要的外资来源之一。同时，中国一直坚定支持东盟在东亚区域合作中的中心地位和主导作用，率先与东盟签署双边自贸协定、在域外国家中第一个加入《东南亚友好合作条约》等。地区产业链的日益完善和优化使中国与东盟国家经济前景一片光明，东亚成为全球经济复苏和发展的最强引擎。新冠疫情暴发以来，中国与东盟国家守望相助、携手抗疫，率先复工复产，给雪上加霜的世界经济注入希望和活力。中国与东盟早已结成水乳交融的命运共同体和利益共同体，唇齿相依，不可分割。
Since they formed the relation of dialogue 30 years ago, China and ASEAN have maintained close communication and practical cooperation, becoming each other’s biggest trading partner and important source of foreign investment. In the meantime, China has been firmly supporting ASEAN’s central and leading role in East Asian cooperation and is the first to sign the bilateral free trade agreement with it and join the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia. The improvement and upgrade of regional industry chains promise great economic prospects for China and ASEAN countries and makes East Asia the strongest engine for global economic recovery and growth. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, China and ASEAN countries have stood together with mutual assistance and jointly fought the virus, injecting hope and vitality into the seriously hit world economy by taking the lead in resuming work and production. The two sides have long become a community of shared future and entwined interests defined by close interdependence and inseverable ties.
所以说，美国拉拢东盟国家“对华包围”，也将严重损害东盟国家的当前和长远利益。这种企图注定是无法拼凑完成的碎片。
Therefore, America’s attempt to jointly besiege China with ASEAN countries will never come through because the last piece of the puzzle will not join as that will harm both the current and long-term interests of ASEAN countries.
