陈小茹
By Chen Xiaoru
菲律宾战机飞越中国南海牛轭礁海域、菲防长强硬喊话、美国国务卿布林肯指责中国“海上民兵”聚集牛轭礁……近半个多月以来，牛轭礁似乎再次成为中菲之间的一个热点。一些人甚至猛带节奏地猜测，“牛轭礁风波恐致中菲擦枪走火”。
Over the past half month, Philippine warplanes flew over the waters around the Niu’e reef in the South China Sea, US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken accused the so-called “Chinese maritime militia” of gathering around the Niu’e reef and Philippine Defense Secretary also expressed a tough stand over this issue. All of these signaled that the tension over the Niu’e reef between China and the Philippines once again heated up. Some even conjectured that the reef spat might cause military conflicts between the two countries.
对此,在所谓“牛轭礁事件”升温半个多月后, 杜特尔特总统首次直接就此事正式发声明，表示菲中关系不会受牛轭礁事件影响。
In response, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte made a statement on this issue for the first time for about two weeks, saying that it will not impact Philippines-China relations.
“菲方将继续通过外交途径和和平手段解决此事，两国关系与合作不会因此事受到影响。”4月6日，菲律宾总统府发言人哈里•罗克在线上新闻发布会上，发布了杜特尔特总统对“200多艘中国船只进驻牛轭礁（菲方称‘朱利安•费利佩礁’）”一事的声明。
“We will continue to resolve the issues through diplomatic channels and through peaceful means.Whatever differences we have with China will not define our bilateral relations.” Rodrigo Duterte’s spokesman Harry Roque said at an online press conference on April 6, reading a statement from the president on the “presence of over 200 Chinese ships in the area”.
据菲律宾通讯社4月6日报道，哈里•罗克当天表示，杜特尔特总统认为，菲律宾与中国存在的任何分歧都不会改变双方之间的关系，相关事件不会影响两国关系积极发展的态势，也不会阻碍两国在抗疫等方面的合作。罗克还强调，杜特尔特希望通过外交途径和和平手段解决与牛轭礁有关的问题，同时相信两国在抗疫方面的合作不会因此受到影响。
As reported by the Philippine News Agency on April 6, Roque said that President Duterte believes any differences between the Philippines and China will not change their relationship, and the issue will neither affect the positive trend of bilateral relations nor hamper the two countries’ cooperation in areas like pandemic control.
杜特尔特政府上台以来，在南海问题上一直传达和平友好的信息，中菲两国也就南海利益达成了合作开发的一致意见。此次“牛轭礁风波”突然升温，与菲律宾政府内尤其军方中的亲西方势力炒作、带节奏密不可分，其中的代表人物就是菲国防部长德尔芬•洛伦扎纳。
Since President Duterte took office, the Philippine government has constantly expressed a willingness to conduct peaceful cooperation with China. The two sides have reached a consensus on joint exploration in the South China Sea. However, the Niu’e reef issue that has recently arisen between the two countries is closely associated with the hyping-up moves by pro-West forces in the Philippine government, especially the military. The most representative figure is Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana.
此次“牛轭礁风波”源于菲方3月20日发布的一条消息：3月7日，在南海海域的巴拉望岛西面约320公里的牛轭礁附近，菲律宾海岸警卫队发现有200多艘中国船只聚集。次日，洛伦扎纳发声明称，200多艘由“民兵掌控的中国渔船非法停泊在菲律宾所属的”牛轭礁，并称这是“对菲律宾的挑衅”。
This issue was evoked by a piece of news released by Manila on March 20, saying that the Philippine Coast Guard found over 200 Chinese vessels gathering in waters around the Niu’e reef, about 320 kilometers west of Palawan Island in the South China Sea, on March 7. The following day, Lorenzana said in a statement that more than 200 “militia-controlled Chinese fishing vessels illegally moored” in that area, calling this “a provocation against the Philippines”, despite the fact that Niu'e reef is part of China's Nansha Islands and the waters around the reef are a traditional fishing ground for Chinese fishermen.
对此，中国驻菲律宾大使馆3月22日在官网上发表声明，强调“牛轭礁是中国南沙群岛的一部分，长期以来，中方渔船一直在该礁附近海域捕鱼。近期由于海况原因，中方一些渔船在牛轭礁附近避风，这很正常。”声明强调，没有所谓“中国海上民兵船”，任何无端揣测都是无益的，希望有关方面理性看待。
On March 22, the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines issued a statement on its official website, noting that Niu'e Reef is a part of China's Nansha Islands. "Chinese fishing vessels have been fishing in its adjacent waters for many years. Recently, some Chinese fishing vessels take shelter near Niu'e Jiao (Reef) due to rough sea conditions. It has been a normal practice for Chinese fishing vessels to take shelter under such circumstances. There is no Chinese Maritime Militia as alleged. Any speculation in such helps nothing but causes unnecessary irritation. It is hoped that the situation could be handled in an objective and rational manner," the statement said.
然而，洛伦扎纳并不接受中方的这一声明，执意炒作“牛轭礁问题”。他在随后发布的一份声明中，要求中国船只离开涉事区域。
However, Lorenzana refused to accept the Chinese statement and continued to hype the matter of the Niu’e reef. In a subsequent statement, he demanded Chinese vessels to leave the area.
4月3日，洛伦扎纳向媒体说，尽管牛轭礁附近的海况已完全改善，但仍有至少44艘中国渔船滞留在牛轭礁海域。
On April 3, Lorenzana told the media that at least 44 Chinese vessels were still moored in waters around the Niu’e reef while the sea conditions have greatly improved.
4月5日，洛伦扎纳表示，菲海军将执行新一轮巡航行动，以确认中国渔船是否已经离开牛轭礁。
On April 5, Lorenzana said that the Philippine Navy would carry out a new round of patrol to check if the remaining Chinese vessels have left.
洛伦扎纳此次拿牛轭礁做文章，似乎早有准备。据菲律宾通讯社3月29日报道，洛伦扎纳当天接受美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）采访时宣布，他打算派一艘海警船常驻牛轭礁附近海域，执行监视中国渔船的敏感任务。同步还会派海军舰只在更远处支援、呼应海警船。洛伦扎纳甚至还透露，菲军方正在研究“仁爱礁模式”，即打算在牛轭礁上重演用破军舰“坐滩霸礁”。
It seemed that Lorenzana has long prepared to hype the matter of the Niu’e reef. According to a report by the Philippine News Agency on March 29, when interviewed by CNN, Lorenzana announced that a Coast Guard ship might be stationed off the Niu’e reef to perform the sensitive mission to monitor Chinese vessels, and a naval ship may await orders at a farther location to support the Coast Guard ship. He added that the Philippine military is considering a suggestion to copy what was previously done in Ren’ai reef where a Philippine naval landing ship was deliberately ran aground for occupation.
当前，中国政府正与菲政府携手抗疫。3月29日,菲政府采购的首批中国科兴新冠疫苗运抵马尼拉比利亚莫尔空军基地。2月28日、3月24日，中国曾援助菲方两批新冠疫苗，菲国内的疫苗接种工作才得以启动。在这一背景下，洛伦扎纳及菲政府内的一些人为何仍执意炒热“牛轭礁风波”，在南海问题上再次兴风作浪？
At present, China and the Philippines are working together to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. On March 29, the first batch of COVID-19 vaccines purchased by the Philippine government from China arrived at the Villamor Air Base in Manila. Before that, China donated two batches of vaccines to the Philippines on February 28 and March 24, respectively, helping the country start inoculations against COVID-19. In this context, why did Lorenzana and some others in the Philippine government still hype up the matter of the Niu’e reef?
首先，从菲国内来看，今年下半年菲国内将开始大选，杜特尔特的总统任期将在明年结束，他本人是否竞选连任尚未最终确定。一些政客迫切想拿南海问题对华示强，以争取国内支持率，为下半年的大选积蓄民意。菲官员在“牛轭礁问题”发出不同声音，很可能是一种内部策略。
First, the Philippines will kick off its general election in the second half of this year, and the tenure of President Duterte will end next year. It remains uncertain whether he will be re-elected. Therefore, some Philippine politicians aspire to earn greater domestic support by hyping up the South China Sea issue for the upcoming general election. Philippine officials expressed different voices on the matter of the Niu’e reef, which is probably an internal strategy. 其次，今年1月美国拜登政府上台后，美菲关系面临重新定调，菲政府尤其是军方传统亲美势力急于摸清拜登政府在南海问题上的政策。此次菲方从美国总统国家安全事务助理沙利文口中获得“《美菲共同防御条约》在南海适用”的承诺，或许正是他们炒热“牛轭礁风波”的一个目标。
Second, after US President Joe Biden took office in January this year, the US may redefine its relationship with the Philippines. The Philippine government, especially the traditional pro-American military is eager to make clear the Biden administration’s policy toward the South China Sea issue. That US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan committed the “applicability” of the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty in the South China Sea was probably a goal for the Philippines who hyped up the matter of the Niu’e reef.
第三，今年是“南海行为准则”（COC）谈判磋商的最后且关键的一年。眼下，中方正与东盟就“准则”具体内容进行谈判，按计划今年内将完成谈判。虽然双方仍有分歧，但尽快达成一个具有约束力的“准则”符合各方期待。此时，菲方一些人拿“牛轭礁风波”做文章，或许有为菲方争取谈判筹码的意图。厘清菲方真实用意，应该更利于推进COC谈判的进程。
Third, 2021 is the last and crucial year for the negotiations of the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea. Currently, China and ASEAN are negotiating on specific contents of the COC, and the negotiation is planned to be completed by the end of this year. Despite their differences, reaching a binding COC meets the expectations of all parties. In this context, some people in the Philippines hyped up the matter of the Niu’e reef, perhaps just for earning more bargaining chips in the COC negotiation. A clear understanding of the true intentions of the Philippine side is conducive to stepping up the COC negotiations.
Editor’s note: This article is originally published on cyol.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
