By Da Zhigang
笪志刚
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe claimed in a recent interview that something is likely to happen in Taiwan soon that will cause immense consequences, with which he urged Japan to make strategic and military preparations, especially expediting the revision of Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan. This was not the first time that Abe played the Taiwan card. Now he chose to bring this up again in the home stretch of the Liberal Democratic Party’s election for two purposes – to pump up the right-wing’s support for Sanae Takaichi, who he also supported, and to free Japan from the righteous restriction imposed by the international community after WWII.
日本前首相安倍晋三近日在接受采访时，鼓噪“台湾有可能立即发生造成重大影响的事态”，呼吁日本朝野加紧从战略和军备层面应对，尤其应加快推动修改宪法第九条。这不是安倍第一次拿台湾说事，此番赶在自民党总裁选举冲刺阶段继续打台湾牌，一是想推升他力挺的高市早苗剑走偏锋的右倾支持率，二是要推动日本摆脱二战后国际正义对它的束缚。
From Abe’s long reign to Yoshihide Suga’s short-lived term, Tokyo has never stopped creating topics on the Taiwan question and has constantly trampled on China’s sovereign redline on the island. It has taken Taiwan as a bargaining chip in its attempt to hype up the public opinions and international environment for Japan to lift the ban on its right to collective defense and send military forces overseas. In fact, Japan’s conservative forces are so keen on playing the Taiwan card partly because it is a traditional trick passed down from history, and partly because of their eager geopolitical plans and military ambitions.
从安倍长期政权到菅义伟倏忽内阁，日本不断在台湾问题上制造国际噱头，屡屡踩踏事关台湾的中国主权红线，台湾成为日本制造解禁集体自卫权和海外出兵的民意借口与国际舆论的筹码。其实，日本保守势力不断拿台湾说事既有一脉相承的历史觊觎，也有迫不及待的地缘谋划，更有迈向军事大国的多重算计。
First of all, Japan wants to break away from the restriction imposed by the post-WWII arrangement and international order. Japan under Abe’s rule turned increasingly rightist politically, and the false claims by politicians and the media made the people believe that they were the real victims of the war and that the post-WWII arrangement was an unjust one imposed by the winning party on the losing party.
首先，谋划逃脱二战成果和国际秩序对自己的捆绑。安倍治下的日本政治不断右倾化，政客媒体联袂鼓噪使民众对战争认识的受害意识浓厚，认为二战成果是“胜者对败者”不公正的清算，拿台湾说事成为日本摆脱战后秩序束缚的最好突破口。
Second, Japan wants to create the basis and public opinions for revising Article 9 of its Constitution. As the Japanese society gets more conservative about Article 9 in the background of the pandemic, Abe and other Japanese politicians, taking advantage of the people’s desire to live in a normal country, have kept urging them to abandon the self-criticizing view on history and recognize the external threats. As a result, revising Article 9 is getting more and more acceptable for Japanese society.
其次，为修改宪法第九条制造内部依据和外部口实。疫情下随着社会对第九条认知日益呈现保守心态，安倍等利用民众渴望成为正常国家的心理，不断鼓噪丢弃自虐史观和正视外部威胁，使日本社会和民意基础正在朝向赞成修改第九条方向渐变。
At last, Japan wants to free itself from military restrictions. The Constitution of Japan restricts the country from launching external wars, and Japanese politicians, represented by Abe, know very well that no breakthrough can be made from the perspective of “defense only”. Under such circumstances, the Taiwan question becomes the perfect excuse that can arouse tension among the people, secure more support from the US, and accelerate the lifting of military restrictions.
最后，实现军事松绑。对于和平宪法限制日本对外发动战争，安倍等政客自知从专守防卫角度难以实现较大突破，台湾问题则成为既能调动普通民众紧张情绪，又能推动美国扩大支持，以直接加快解禁军事束缚的最佳借口。
There are two reasons why Japan has followed the path of peaceful development and not run amuck in military development and lifting the ban on its right to collective defense for such a long time after WWII. For one, it is restricted by the Constitution, especially Article 9 stating that “land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized”. For the other, it is checked by surrounding countries and the international community. While peaceful and progressive forces within Japan are consistently resisting the countercurrent in the government, countries that used to be invaded by Japan, including China and ROK, are also countering its unending efforts to seek more military freedom.
应看到，战后日本能长期坚持走和平发展道路，没有在军备和解禁集体自卫权上出现重大突破，一是受制于战后和平宪法的约束，特别是第九条关于不保持战争力量、不承认国家交战权的底线界定；二是与周边国家及国际社会的制衡有关，不仅日本和平进步势力在持续抵制政府逆流，中韩等受害国家也在不断抗衡日本谋求军事松绑的努力。
But given the new and complicated changes in the geopolitical situation and the aggravation of major-power struggles, Abe and the like are getting closer to their goal of revising Article 9. Once the restriction is lifted, it’s imaginable that Japan is very likely to become the new unstable factor in East Asia and even the Indo-Pacific region. Once militarist and aggressive, the country has every possibility to once again become the source of regional conflicts.
但在新的复杂地缘变化和大国博弈加剧变量下，安倍之流推动修改宪法第九条的考量正在一步步变现。可以想见，一旦去掉紧箍咒，日本极有可能成为东亚乃至印太地区新的不稳定因素，曾经穷兵黩武、不可一世的日本可能再次成为引发区域冲突的策源地。
While Japan is subtly testing the bottom line and quickening its steps to make the dangerous move, America’s connivance and even indulgence are worrying. As the US, Japan and Australia are ever more eager to gang up against China, Washington is more indulgent of Japan, an opportunity seized by Japan to free itself militarily more quickly. The Taiwan question is a wind vane that tests Japan’s intention of getting rid of the constitutional restriction and barometer that shows how far the US indulgence will go. Washington should think twice about what it’s doing, and Tokyo needs to stop walking down the wrong path before it’s too late.
面对日本巧妙试探突破底线及加快铤而走险，美国的默认乃至纵容是令人担忧的。在美日澳等国联合遏制中国冲动愈发强烈的今天，美国对日的战略纵容正在加剧，日本借美之手加快松绑渐次显现。台湾问题，正是检验日本企图获得松绑的风向标、美国纵容日本走险的晴雨表。对此，国际社会需要发出正义的抵制呼声，美国政府需要三思而后行，日本政府更需要及早悬崖勒马。
(The author is director and researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies, Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences)
（作者是黑龙江省社会科学院东北亚研究所所长、研究员）
Editor's note: This article is originally published on huanqiu.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
