By Zhao Ruiqi
近日，美国政府借联大50年前通过的2758号决议不断制造政治事端，加大与台湾当局的勾连力度：先是罕见地公开批评中国“误用”（misuse）该决议来排除台湾，继而与台当局就如何让台湾“有意义”地参与联合国事务进行了讨论。10月26日，美国国务卿布林肯又发表声明“支持台湾参与联合国系统”。
Recently, Washington is taking issue with Resolution 2758 of the UN General Assembly passed 50 years ago and using that as an excuse to create political disputes and strengthen the collusion with Taiwan authorities. First, it publicly criticized China for so-called misusing the resolution to exclude Taiwan, which was a new move on the US side, and then it held discussions with Taiwan authorities on how to get the island to “meaningfully participate in the UN system”. In this trend, the US Secretary of State Blinken on October 26 openly supported Taiwan’s participation in the United Nations system.
借中国恢复联合国席位50周年的机会，美国表态支持台湾扩大国际影响，其用意何在呢？
Why did the US come out and express its support for the Taiwan region to expand its international influence when PRC is celebrating the 50th anniversary of the restoration of its lawful seat in the UN?
美国打台湾牌，是企图通过一点点突破禁忌从而妄图使中国陷入首尾不能相顾、内外不能协调的境地，以便达到遏制中国的目的。此前，尽管小动作不断，美国却鲜少做出类似“支持台湾参与联合国系统”这样的公开声明。现在，美方从避讳明言转向敲着锣干坏事，并且鼓噪官员的层级也有所提高。不过，从既往经验看，美国对台湾的支持终究不过是小打小闹地投入、半心半意地支持。毕竟，中美合作的益处总是大于挑战。
By playing the Taiwan card, the US is attempting to cross the line little by little and contain China by cornering it into a position where it is unable to attend to all the domestic and international matters on its plate at the same time. Despite its constant subtle moves before, Washington has rarely made a public statement to support Taiwan’s participation in the UN system, but now, its covert moves have become overt and the official making such a statement is of a higher rank. However, previous experience tells us that America’s support for the Taiwan region is never serious and always half-hearted. After all, China-US cooperation brings far more benefits than challenges.
鉴于中美两国的接触政策为东亚地区带来了长期和平，双方保持一种健康关系，既有历史基础也有现实动力。美国这种敌视与短视的做法，充满傲慢与偏见，缺乏理智与情感，对于尚未走出僵局的中美关系，对于美国和台湾地区，会有什么消极影响呢？
The contact between China and the US has brought long-term peace for East Asia, so there is both a historical foundation and realistic motivation for them to maintain a healthy relation. The recent acts by the US are rife with hostility and myopia, arrogance and prejudice. How will these acts, void of any sense and sensibility, affect the strained China-US relation, the US and the Taiwan region?
其一，这将导致中美之间的沟通与协调陷入停顿。美国对华政策信号与行为的混乱和僵硬，无助于双方走出僵局。美国如此高调地挑衅中国在两岸关系上的底线，将恶化双边关系氛围，将使中国没有耐心区分美国所谓“该同中国竞争的时候就竞争；能合作的时候就合作；不得不对抗的时候就对抗”政策的不同行为目标，从而导致诸多层级、不同领域会谈的无果而终。
First of all, they will halt the communication and coordination between China and the US. The chaotic and rigid US policies and actions toward China will in no way help the two sides get out of the current stalemate. America’s high-profile provocation to China’s bottom line on the cross-Straits relations will only deteriorate the bilateral ties and drain Beijing’s patience to discern its different goals contained in the so-called policy of “cooperate where we can, compete where we must and confront where necessary”. As a result, the China-US talks on multiple levels and in various fields will come to no great result.
其二，台湾当局的冒进或许会将中美关系拖进不稳定的状态。反中是台湾民进党最惯用的兴奋剂。虽然美国把台湾当局视作遏制中国大陆的一张牌，但美国未必能管控台湾当局的自作主张，进而被拉进始料未及的险境之中：一旦地区局势到达临界点或被突发因素触发更大冲突，美国只能是自受其乱。
Second, the aggressiveness of Taiwan authorities may drag China-US relations into an unstable state. China bashing is the usual trick played by Taiwan DPP. Although the US views Taiwan as a tool to contain the Chinese mainland, it may not necessarily be able to always keep the Taiwan authorities on a leash and may find itself being dragged into a dangerous position if the regional situation reaches a critical point or some unexpected factor triggers a greater conflict.
其三，美国“支持台湾参与联合国系统”，实际上是把台湾架在火上烤，最终吃亏的只能是台湾。在美国试图遏制中国的大背景下，台湾之所以成为美国的香饽饽，不是因为什么民主价值观，也不是因为什么国际空间，更不是什么恩宠，而是因为台湾有巨大的地缘和军事价值。每次中美有事或关系紧张时，美国都会暗中鼓动台湾生事。但中国在应对过程中，已经拥有了足够的手段和力量，只等时机恰当，便可致命一击。到时候，即便美国没有抛弃台湾当局，台湾当局也会为自己的错误选择付出沉重的代价。
Third, the US supporting Taiwan to participate in the UN system was actually putting the island over a barrel and it will throw the island under the bus if things get out of control. Taiwan seems to have come in America’s favor not because of its democratic values, or to seek greater international space for the island or because of their friendship – the only reason why it’s picked by the US is that it has immense geopolitical and military value in America’s containment strategy against China. Every time China and the US have a disagreement or tension, the US would secretly agitate Taiwan to make trouble. China has gained sufficient means and strengths in responding to such situations over the years, and it is able to lend a deadly blow once the timing is right. At that time, the Taiwan authorities would pay a heavy price for its wrong choice even if the US didn’t discard them.
当美国触及中国底线时，不管美国拉拢多少盟友，建立多少AUKUS（澳英美联盟），投入多少力量，都不可能动摇中国捍卫自身主权和领土完整的决心与意志。奉劝美国和台湾当局切勿心存侥幸，以身试法，以免引火烧身。
If the US ever touches China’s bottom line, no matter how many allies it ropes in, how many alliances like AUKUS it forms, and how many forces it mobilizes, it will never shake China’s resolve and will to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. We advise the US and the Taiwan authorities to give up any illusions and stop playing with fire – they will only get burned themselves.
作者为中国传媒大学教授
The author is a professor at the Communication University of China
