张弘
By Zhang Hong
俄罗斯日前宣布向美国和北约分别提出了“安全保障协议”草案，要求北约 “停止东扩”“排除乌克兰加入北约的可能” “北约放弃在乌克兰、东欧、外高加索以及东亚的一切军事活动”等等。莫斯科希望通过该条约一揽子解决俄罗斯和北约之间的所有争端。
Russia recently outlined two comprehensive draft agreements on security guarantees to the US and NATO respectively, demanding NATO to “prevent from the further eastward expansion”, “deny NATO membership to Ukraine”, and “roll back the alliance’s military deployments in in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Eastern Asia”. Moscow hoped to solve all disputes with NATO once and for all through the package solution.
冷战后期，美苏曾签署一系列军控条约，从法律上有效地管控了各方的行为。但美国率先退出一系列军控条约，引发欧洲军备竞赛升级。而且进入21世纪后，北约违背冷战后对俄罗斯的承诺不断扩员，也令莫斯科的不满和猜忌不断积累，最终导致双方关系严重紧张。
The US and the Soviet Union signed a series of arms control treaties in the later stage of the Cold War to control their behaviors legally, but US’ pullback from one arms control treaty after another has escalated the arms race in Europe. In the 21st century, NATO continuously accepting new members against its post-Cold War commitment to Russia has also aggravated Moscow’s dissatisfaction and doubts, eventually leading to the serious tension on their ties.
在目前日益严峻的乌克兰问题上，俄美都说做好了对话准备，两者达成新军控条约的可能性有多大？
Since both Russia and the US claimed to be ready for dialogue on the increasingly severe Ukraine issue, what are the chances for them to reach a new arms control treaty?
笔者看来，尽管双方都有化解紧张局面的意愿，但从莫斯科公布的草案内容看，双方必然会经历漫长的讨价还价过程，迅速达成妥协的可能性不大。
Even though both parties expressed willingness to ease the tension, the contents in the Moscow-proposed draft decide that they will go through a long and hard process of bargaining and are unlikely to reach a compromise any time soon.
第一，明确拒绝乌克兰加入北约的难度较大。尽管美国主导着北约事务，但欧洲成员国的立场同样不容忽视。在拜登试图恢复美欧的跨大西洋联盟背景下，华盛顿更不敢在乌克兰作出“让步”。以波兰、立陶宛为代表的东欧国家将“支持乌克兰”视为美国对欧洲的信心承诺。如果拜登答应莫斯科的要求，作出拒绝乌克兰加入北约的承诺，必将严重损害美国及北约的影响力。
First, it’s hard to have NATO flatly refuse Ukraine. Although NATO is a US-led bloc, the stances of European members cannot be ignored, and Biden wouldn’t dare make concessions on the Ukraine issue as he is trying to mend the US-EU cross-Atlantic alliance. Eastern European countries represented by Poland and Lithuania take “support for Ukraine” as US’ commitment of confidence to Europe. Therefore, if Biden agreed to Moscow’s demand for denying Ukraine the NATO membership, the influence of the US and NATO would be seriously undermined.
第二，俄与北约有可能达成一定的军控安排。从欧洲安全的角度出发，欧盟有重新达成军控条约的意愿。特朗普政府宣布退出《中导条约》不仅遭致俄罗斯的批评，也引发欧盟国家的严厉批评。2021年，普京多次公开向西方喊话，阐述俄罗斯的“战略红线”，以及捍卫核心利益的战略决心。今年内俄军两次在毗邻乌克兰的边境地区大规模集结，都显示出进行“战略反击”的决心。与其无序竞争，不如通过法律安排，用法律文件来找回安全上的确定性。
Second, it’s possible to make some arms control arrangements between Russia and NATO. The EU has the motive to reach an arms control treaty for the sake of Europe’s security. Trump Administration’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) was not only slammed by Russia, but also by EU members. In 2021, Putin has elaborated on Russia’s “strategic red line” and strategic resolve to safeguard core interests to the West on many public occasions, and the country has twice assembled masses of armed forces on the Ukraine border this year, indicating how determined it is to launch strategic counterattacks. It would be much better to replace such sporadic breakout with a legal arrangement on guaranteed security.
尽管各方立场差距较大，莫斯科仍然希望主动出击，打破与北约的安全僵局。双方一旦坐下来谈，达成妥协的机会仍然存在。如果能达成安全保障协议，将会对欧洲局势和全球格局产生较大的影响。
Despite the vastly different positions of the various parties, Moscow still took the initiative to break the security deadlock with NATO. Once they sit down at the negotiating table, there is still a chance of reaching a compromise, and the security guarantee agreement, if agreed on, will exert great impacts on the European and global situation.
第一，俄罗斯此次提出安全协议时，特别提及冷战时期的“古巴导弹危机”，意在暗示一旦谈判失败可能引发“热战”，莫斯科希望借此迫使北约后退。由于俄拥有强大的核威慑能力，以美国为首的北约将不可能军事介入乌克兰局势。因此，如能达成安全保障协议，将有助于稳定乌克兰局势。
On the one hand, Russia specifically mentioned the “Cuba Missile Crisis” during the Cold War in the security agreement, hoping to force NATO to back up by hinting at a possible “hot war” if the negotiations go south. Given Russia’s powerful nuclear deterrence, the US-led NATO will not meddle in the Ukraine situation through military means, and the situation in the country will chill if the security guarantee agreement can be concluded.
第二，警惕美国全球战略重心进一步向亚太转移。拜登执政以来，美国加速从非核心地区收缩，不仅从叙利亚、伊拉克撤出军队，而且完全“放弃”了阿富汗。美国还将大部分的航母部署到亚太地区，拉北约的欧洲成员国到亚太地区搞联合军演。因此，美国有可能出于战略重心转移的考量，对莫斯科作出某种程度的“让步”。
On the other hand, we must be alert to America further shifting its strategic focus to the Asia Pacific. Since Biden took office, Washington has moved more quickly to retract from non-key areas, not only pulling troops out of Syria and Iraq, but also completely abandoning Afghanistan. It has also deployed most of its aircraft carriers to the Asia Pacific and teamed up with NATO’s European members to carry out joint military exercises in the region. Considering the shift of its strategic focus, the US may make some concessions to Moscow.
提出安全保障协议是俄罗斯外交上的一次“主动出击”，而结果如何还考验各方智慧，也取决于国际社会的共同努力。
Proposing the security guarantee agreement is a diplomatic initiative made by Russia, but how it will play out depends partly on the wisdom of the concerned parties and partly on the joint efforts of the international community.
（作者是中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚所研究员）
(The author is a research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European & Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
Editor's note: This article is originally published on huanqiu.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
