吴敏文
By Wu Minwen
据1月6日美联社消息，美国总统拜登已提名第十八空降军军长埃里克•库里拉中将出任美军中央司令部司令，并擢升为上将。在当前形势下，这不仅仅是一项简单的人事变动，更意味着美国中东战略的调整。
The US President Joe Biden is nominating Army Lt. Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, current commander of the Army’s 18th Airborne Corps, to be the next commander of US Central Command and promoted him to be four-star general, news came from Associated Press on January 6. Judging from the current situation, this was by no means a simple change of personnel arrangement, but indicated America’s adjustment of its Middle East strategy.
中央司令部是美国反恐战争的主要执行者，海湾战争、阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争的美军联合指挥机构，都是依托中央司令部组建，并以时任中央司令部司令为联合部队司令。然而，美国的反恐战争在初期取得军事上的胜利之后，很快深陷战争泥潭。
The US Central Command is the chief executor of America’s anti-terror war. The joint command organizations of the Gulf War, Afghanistan War and Iraqi War were all based on the US Central Command with its commander also serving as the joint forces commander. However, America was quickly bogged down a quagmire of war after some initial victories in its anti-terror activities.
2021年，美军比当年仓促撤离越南的“西贡时刻”更加狼狈和难堪的“喀布尔时刻”，使拜登政府遭到来自盟友和国内政敌的严厉批评。即便如此，拜登政府仍然冒着极大的政治风险完成从阿富汗撤军，表明了从中东泥潭拔出脚来，落实从反恐转向“大国竞争”军事战略的政治决心。
In 2021, the “Kabul moment” of the hurried withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, which was even more embarrassed and shameful than what happened in Saigon, Vietnam many years ago, drew severe criticism to the Biden administration from its allies and domestic oppositions. Even so, Biden, risking enormous political repercussions, completed the troops’ withdrawal in a show of his firm resolution to drag America out of the Middle East swamp and then turn from counterterrorism to major-country competition.
但基于诸多方面的原因，美军并不会完全离开中东。中东地区在美国全球霸权中，是连接整个欧亚大陆各个部分的所谓“中心地区”。冷战取胜后，美国发动的海湾战争、阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争都集中在这一地区，这些战争固然有反恐的需要，但更多是因为美国要需要通过它们将冷战胜果切实收入囊中。
Yet the US troops won’t leave the Middle East for good for many reasons. The region is a so-called “hub” connecting different parts of the Eurasian continent in America’s global hegemony landscape. After it won the Cold War, the US waged the Gulf War, the Afghanistan War and the Iraqi War, all in the Middle East. The wars have done their part in countering terrorism, but they were waged – for the most part – because the US had to truly put the fruits of the Cold War in its own pocket.
美国的军事战略重点向印太地区转移，加之美国页岩油气资源开发成功，使得中东油气资源对美国的重要性不如以往。但对美国的全球战略而言，放弃中东仍然是不可接受的。
The shift of America’s military strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific and the successful development of its shale oil and gas resources have made Middle East’s oil and gas less important, but giving up the region entirely remains unacceptable for America’s global strategy.
与此同时，美国面临的反恐形势依然严峻。战乱是恐怖主义的温床，当前活跃于叙利亚、伊拉克、阿富汗等国的各类武装组织，包括恐怖组织和准恐怖组织武装，还不时使用炸弹、无人机等手段对美军基地、美国使馆造成威胁。
In the meantime, the anti-terror situation facing the US remains grave. The chaos of war is a hotbed for terrorism. The various armed groups currently active in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, including terrorist and quasi-terrorist organizations, would threaten American military bases and embassies with bombs and UAVs from time to time.
诸多事实证明，美国以反恐为名义在这一地区进行了长达20多年的战争，结果却陷入了越反越恐的悖论。如果美军完全撤离，不仅是地区国家和人民的灾难，美国恐怕也免不了受池鱼之殃。
Facts have proved beyond doubt that the US has ravaged the region with a more-than-20-year war in the name of counterterrorism, only to make the situation even worse. The full withdrawal of American troops now will not only bring a disaster to the regional countries and people, but may even implicate the US itself.
既然不会完全撤出，还要保持一定程度的军事存在，那就必然需要立足点。目前，美军在土耳其、以色列、科威特、卡塔尔和巴林仍然控制着一批战略要点和独立性较强、自成体系的军事基地。即便经过奥巴马、特朗普和拜登政府的多次撤军，目前美军在中东的总兵力仍有大约2万人，分别驻扎在上述国家与基地内。
Since the US won’t pull out all its troops and will keep some kind of military presence in the Middle East, it will need a foothold. At present, it still controls a batch of strategic strongholds and independent and self-sustained military bases in Turkey, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. Even if Obama, Trump and Biden have all pulled out some troops, there remain about 20,000 troops stationed in those countries and bases.
埃里克•库里拉毕业于西点军校，曾参加、指挥阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争，曾任美国中央司令部参谋长。就其任职经历和能力而言，美国国会通过其任职提名不会有太大的问题。
Graduating from West Point, Erik Kurilla served in and commanded the Afghanistan War and Iraqi War, and previously served as Chief of Staff of US Central Command. His experience and capabilities will guarantee him a smooth run at the Congress for the approval of the nomination.
由此可以推知，美军此后的中东军事战略，将是在撤出一些非重要地点的驻军后，巩固和坚守战略性要点和重要的基地，同时维持一支具有战略能力的地区作战力量。在拥有丰富作战经验、熟悉地区局势的指挥员的领导下，一方面继续履行反恐作战任务，威慑地区对手，对紧急事件做出快速反应；另一方面坚定支持地区盟友，平衡俄罗斯的地区影响力，遏制地区对手伊朗的可能扩张，以维护美国在中东地区的战略利益。
It’s easy to see that the Pentagon’s future Middle East strategy will be pulling troops from some less-important areas, consolidating strategic pivots and key bases, and maintaining a regional force with strategic capabilities. Under the command of an experienced commander familiar with the regional situation, the force will, on the one hand, continue carrying out anti-terror operations, deterring regional rivals, and quickly responding to emergencies. On the other hand, it will staunchly support regional allies, counter Russia’s regional influence, and curb the possible expansion of Iran, so as to protect America’s strategic interests in the Middle East.
（作者单位：国防科技大学信息通信学院）
(The author is from the College of Information and Communication, National University of Defense Technology)
Editor's note: This article is originally published on zqb.cyol.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
