吴敏文
By Wu Minwen
日本新政府岸田文雄内阁上任以来，在配合美国推进“印太战略”问题上全面跟进，俄乌冲突以来，日本更是积极跟随美国的步伐，不断升级对俄制裁，日本真的要充当美国“印太战略”的“马前卒”吗？
Japan has fully cooperated with the US to promote the Indo-Pacific strategy since the Fumio Kishida took office. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Japan has actively followed the pace of the US and continuously escalated sanctions against Russia. Does Japan really want to act as a US pawn in the Indo-Pacific strategy?
2021年10月，岸田文雄就任新一届日本首相。在接受媒体访谈时，岸田文雄表示，主张对中国采取毅然措施，并称对中国一步不会退让。美国主导的“印太战略”旨在遏制中国崛起，日本呼应这一战略主要包括内外两方面原因。
Fumio Kishida took office as the new Prime Minister of Japan in October 2021. In an interview, he advocated taking resolute measures against China and claimed not to give in one step to China. The Indo-Pacific strategy led by the US aims to contain the rise of China, and Japan's response to this strategy is mainly rooted in internal and external considerations.
内在原因是日本对中国崛起的忌惮。日本是一个自身资源极度匮乏的岛国，国民经济和海外贸易高度依赖包括台海、南海等海上航线。因此，日本将台湾视为生命线，这也是当下日本政客鼓吹“台湾有事等同日本有事”的文化地理原因。
The internal reason is Japan's fear of China's rise. Japan is an island country with extremely scarce resources, and its national economy and overseas trade are highly dependent on maritime routes in the areas such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Therefore, Japan regards Taiwan as its lifeline, which is also the reason that some Japanese politicians advocate that "a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency".
外在原因则主要是来自美国的诱导和压力。中国解决台湾问题，将使美国围堵中国的“岛链战略”土崩瓦解，从而削弱其在西太平洋的影响力，美国的海外属地关岛或成为孤岛。钓鱼岛问题成为日美利益的最重要链接点，为此，美国以钓鱼岛问题为诱饵，引诱日本加入美国的战略。
The external reason is mainly the inducement and pressure from the US. China's resolution on the Taiwan question will disintegrate the US "island chain strategy" to contain China, thereby weakening its influence in the Western Pacific. The Diaoyu Islands issue has become the most important link between the interests of Japan and the US. Therefore, the US has taken the Diaoyu Islands issue as bait to lure Japan into its strategy.
然而，无论是美国诱导日本，还是日本绑定美国，日本都面临不可解的难题。
However, whether the US induces Japan or Japan relies on the US, Japan faces insoluble problems.
一是日本无法南北兼顾。众所周知，日本不仅在南端挑起与中国的钓鱼岛问题，在北端与俄罗斯有“北方四岛”（俄罗斯称“南千岛群岛”）之争，在中段还与韩国有“独岛”（日本称“竹岛”）之争。这几乎成为日本在近邻关系上的“死结”。
First, Japan cannot simultaneously reconcile the territorial disputes from the north to the south. As we all know, Japan not only provokes the issue of the Diaoyu Islands with China in the south, but also has a dispute with Russia over the Southern Kuril Islands in the north. In addition, it has a Dokdo Islands dispute with South Korea. These have almost become deadlocks in Japan's relationship with its neighbors.
二是美国只是利用日本。在美国全球霸权的棋盘上，盟友只是棋子。日本充当“印太战略”的“马前卒”，只能是用日本的人力、物力为美国的地区战略服务，结果必然是为人作嫁衣，得不偿失。
Second, the US is only taking advantage of Japan. Allies are only pawns on the chessboard of the US global hegemony. As the pawn in the Indo-Pacific strategy, Japan uses human and material resources to serve the regional strategy of the US. In the end, its loss outweighs the gain.
三是面临本国人民的反对。美国利用日本干预台海，日本的西南诸岛是重要支撑点和着力点。日本西南诸岛共有近200个岛屿，其中约有40个岛屿能够供应淡水，有能力作为军事据点使用，但大多数有居民居住。
Third, Japan faces opposition from its own people. The US uses Japan to intervene in the Taiwan question, in which Japan's southwestern islands play important supporting roles. There are nearly 200 islands in the southwest of Japan. Among them, 40 ones can supply fresh water as military strongholds, but most of them are inhabited.
日本在这些岛屿上派驻力量并加入到干预台海局势的图谋中来，使得这些岛屿及其居民必然在战时成为被反击目标。对此，日本自卫队宣称：“很抱歉，自卫队没有余力疏散居民，只能让地方政府来做。”冲绳居民对卷入战争非常担忧，希望日本政府切实致力于缓和地区紧张局势，降低战争风险。
Japan has stationed troops on these islands and joined the plot to intervene in the situation across the Taiwan Strait, making these islands and their inhabitants the targets of counterattacks in military operations. In this regard, the Japanese Self-Defense Force (JSDF) declared that it has no enough energy to evacuate the residents and can only let the local government do it instead. The residents of Okinawa are very concerned about being involved in the war, and they hope that the Japanese government will earnestly de-escalate the regional tension and reduce the risk of war.
美国推行“印太战略”缘于冷战思维，本质上十分荒谬，也不合时宜。其纠集盟国推进“印太战略”必将导致地区局势更加充满不确定性，甚至有导向不可预知严重冲突的危险。日本作为可能冲突的最前沿，需要审慎思考自己的角色和处境。
The US Indo-Pacific strategy stems from the Cold War mentality, which is inherently ridiculous and out of date. Gathering allies to promote the Indo-Pacific strategy will inevitably lead to more uncertainties in the regional situation, and even lead to the danger of unpredictable serious conflicts. At the forefront of a possible conflict, Japan should think carefully about its role and situation.
(作者单位：国防科技大学信息通信学院)
(The author is from College of Information and Communication, PLA National University of Defense Technology)
Editor's note: This article is originally published on zqb.cyol.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
