王毅 李瑞景
By Wang Yi and Li Ruijing
2022年以来，中东地区各种高层互访和首脑峰会十分频繁，不同国家之间的多边外交也屡见不鲜。一些观察人士认为，这是以色列与阿联酋、巴林、苏丹及摩洛哥等阿拉伯国家建交“小高潮”之后，中东地区局势进一步缓和的重要表现。
High-level mutual visits and summits of heads of state are frequent in the Middle East in the year 2022, and multilateral diplomacy among various countries is a common scene. Observers take this as an important indication that regional tension has further eased after the little "climax" signaled by Israel's establishment of diplomatic ties with several Arabian countries such as the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.
然而，这种缓和其实只是表象。由于美国、以色列与伊朗存在根深蒂固的矛盾，伊核谈判迟迟未能取得实质性进展。以色列与一些阿拉伯国家不断走近，很大程度上也是出于抗衡伊朗的共同需求。这种情况下，阿以关系的缓和并不意味着真正的稳定，反而可能使中东局势愈加极化和脆弱。
But the ease is only skin deep. The Iranian nuclear deal negotiations still haven't seen any substantial progress due to the deep-rooted conflicts between the US, Israel and Iran, and the closer ties between Israel and Arabian countries were largely driven by their common need to counter Iran. Under such circumstances, the amelioration of the Arab-Israel relationship doesn't in any way mean real stability, but may escalate the Middle Eastern situation to be more polarized and fragile.
面对以色列与部分阿拉伯国家加速抱团，伊朗不可能视而不见，必然运用手中掌握的各种“资源”展开多手反击，从而加剧中东地区的对抗。
Facing the "ganging-up" of Israel and some Arabian countries, Iran would not sit idle and be a sitting duck, but will definitely fight back with what resources and bargaining chips it has at its disposal, and that will in turn further aggravate regional confrontation.
此外,阿拉伯国家与以色列关系的缓和，是以巴勒斯坦问题严重边缘化为前提和代价的，其带来的严重后果将逐渐显现出来。
Besides, the mitigation of Arab-Israel relations is premised on the serious marginalization of the Palestinian issue, and the grave consequences of that will come to the fore over time.
一方面，巴勒斯坦问题仍具有强大的惯性，处于弱势且感到被背叛和抛弃的巴勒斯坦，对阿以关系的改善将更为敏感，更倾向于通过升级矛盾来吸引外界的关注。这也是巴以局势今年持续紧张、且呈爆发大规模冲突之势的重要原因。新一轮巴以紧张局势已造成数十名巴勒斯坦人死亡，以方的强硬手段引起国际社会的谴责，与以色列关系缓和的巴林、摩洛哥等阿拉伯国家也被迫卷入其中。
On the one hand, the Palestinian issue still carries strong inertia. Palestine, standing at a disadvantage and feeling betrayed and forsaken, is especially sensitive to the closer relations between the Arab world and Israel, and is inclined to capture international attention by escalating the conflict. That is an important reason for the sustained tension between Palestine and Israel this year, almost to the point of a massive breakout, which has already caused the death of tens of Palestinians. Israel's high-handed approach is condemned in the international community, embroiling countries like Bahrain and Morocco who are on better terms with Israel.
另一方面，巴以问题造成的阿拉伯国家“道义困局”，也成为伊朗对其进行反制的抓手。传统上，巴以问题是中东地区的核心问题，支持巴勒斯坦是阿拉伯国家不可动摇的根本立场，甚至是其政权合法性的基石。如今，部分阿拉伯国家在这一立场上的倒退，使原本团结的阿拉伯世界被“逐个击破”，但这种政治妥协与原有的宗教情感的错位将会给地区形势带来更多的不确定性。而并非阿拉伯国家的伊朗坚定支持巴勒斯坦，借由全球穆斯林在巴以问题上的民意支持，不断冲击阿联酋等与以色列缓和关系的阿拉伯国家政权的合法性根基。
On the other hand, the "moral dilemma" in which the Palestine-Israel tangle puts the Arabian countries leaves an opening for Iran to make inroads. Traditionally, the Palestine-Israel issue has been the center of all issues in the Middle East, and supporting Palestine has been the fundamental and unshakable stance of the Arab world, even the cornerstone of the legitimacy of their regimes. The back-pedaling of some Arab countries on this issue now has caused rifts in the originally united Arab world, and such a political compromise, which deviates from their religious sentiments, implies more uncertainties for the regional situation. Iran, which is not a member of the Arab family, stands firmly by Palestine and, relying on the support of all Muslims worldwide, has constantly challenged the legitimacy of the regimes of Arabian countries like the UAE that have mended ties with Israel.
与此同时，美国在中东的战略收缩以及伊核协议恢复履约谈判，加剧了以色列和阿拉伯国家的安全忧虑。伊朗副外长兼伊朗核问题首席谈判代表巴盖里5月15日表示，伊朗将全力以赴通过外交努力“最大限度”取消美国的制裁。在以色列和阿拉伯国家看来，一旦西方国家取消针对伊朗的所有制裁，并将伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队从“恐怖组织名单”中除名，伊朗在中东的影响力将更加强大。因此，以色列极有可能对伊朗的军事目标甚至相关核设施进行打击。这也将使中东局势的走向充满更多不确定性。
At the same time, America's strategic contraction in the Middle East and the negotiations on resuming the Iranian nuclear deal have increased Israel and Arabian countries' security concerns. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister and chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani said on May 15 that his country would make utmost diplomatic efforts for the maximal revocation of American sanctions. As far as Israel and Arabian countries are concerned, once the West lifts all sanctions against Iran and removes Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the list of terrorist organizations, the country will obtain more power and influence in the Middle East. Therefore, Israel is very likely to launch attacks on military targets, even nuclear facilities, on the Iranian territory, adding yet another uncertainty to the future of the region.
总之，中东地区局势表面的缓和，更多只是利益驱使下的抱团行为。只有博弈各方彻底放弃意识形态斗争和地缘政治对抗，才能为中东地区构筑长久和平的根基，但这一过程注定艰难且漫长。
All in all, the ostensible ease of tension in the Middle East is more a temporary, interest-driven action of huddling that can hardly last long. Only when all parties in the game put down their ideological struggle and geopolitical hostility could there be the basis for enduring regional peace. That, however, will be a long and hard journey.
