胡继平
By Hu Jiping
美国总统拜登20日开启亚洲之行，并将于23日与日本首相岸田文雄会谈。据日媒透露，届时拜登不仅会重申美国对日“核保护伞”依然有效，还要强调继续强化其“延伸威慑”，并写入双方共同文件。这意味着美国可能在日本部署更多武器，进一步将日本变为与大国对抗的军事前沿。
US President Joe Biden will start his Asia tour on May 20 and will hold talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on May 23. According to Japanese media, Biden will not only reaffirm US "nuclear umbrella" for Japan, but also continue to strengthen the "extended deterrence" and write it into a joint document. This means that the US may deploy more weapons in Japan and further turn it into a military frontier in confrontation with major powers.
近年来日本对“中国威胁论”的炒作不断升级，俄乌冲突发生后，日本更借机渲染“以实力改变现状的事情在东亚也会发生”。前首相安倍晋三等人夸大地区核威胁，提议考虑“核共享”，这成为美国重申“核保护伞”的直接背景。
Japan's hype on the "China threat theory" has been escalating in recent years. After the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan even took the opportunity to exaggerate that " changing the status quo with strength will also happen in East Asia." Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and others exaggerated the regional nuclear threat and proposed to consider "nuclear sharing", which became the direct background for the US to reaffirm the "nuclear umbrella".
所谓“核共享”，就是将美国核武器部署在日本，由两国“共享”。美国目前在欧洲的德国等五个国家以这种方式部署战术核武器，日本有人想加以模仿变相实现 “拥核”。美国国防部长奥斯汀在本月4日的美日防长会谈时，曾重申美国“包括核武器在内的延伸威慑承诺不会动摇”，这可以视为对日本的战略安抚。
The so-called "nuclear sharing" refers to the deployment of US nuclear weapons in Japan to be "shared" by the two countries. The US currently deploys tactical nuclear weapons in this way in five European countries including Germany. Some people in Japan want to achieve "nuclear possession" in the same way. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reiterated "unwavering commitment to the defense of Japan and to include our extended deterrence commitments, using our full range of conventional and nuclear capabilities" during the US-Japan defense ministers' meeting on May 4. It may be regarded as a strategic appeasement for Japan.
但美国的目的显然不只是宽慰日本。美国一直把中国视为竞争对手，积极推动亚太地区美军力量的转型发展，并通过加大拉拢地区盟友，打造一支战略进攻能力更强、战备水平更高的前沿作战力量，其中包括谋求在该地区部署数百枚中程导弹。“延伸威慑”，就是以包括核武器在内的所有手段保护盟国不受攻击，同时加强与盟国的军事捆绑，提升联合威慑力，实现美国自身的战略目标。
However, the US's intention is clearly not just to comfort Japan. Taking China as its competitor, the US has been actively promoting the transformation and development of US military forces in the Asia-Pacific region. By stepping up efforts to win over regional allies, it aims to build a forward combat force with stronger strategic offensive capabilities and a higher level of combat readiness, including the deployment of hundreds of medium-range missiles in the region. Against such background, the US proposed "extended deterrence”, which means protecting its allies from attacks in all ways including the use of A-bomb, and strengthening military ties with allies, enhancing joint deterrence, and realizing its own strategic goals.
日本乐于“将计就计”进一步强化与美安全合作，其在《外交蓝皮书》中明确指出，自己是站在美中对抗的“最前线”。自民党4月公布关于修改国家安全保障战略等文件的建议，将中国定位为“重大安全威胁”，同时表示要研究强化美国安全承诺的途径，以及如何利用美国以核威慑为主的“延伸威慑”。
Japan is willing to "take the bait" to further strengthen its security cooperation with the US. In its Diplomatic Bluebook, Japan clearly stated that it is at the "front line" of the confrontation between the US and China. The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan announced in April its proposal to revise the national security strategy and other documents, positioning China as a "major security threat", and said it would explore ways to strengthen US security commitments, as well as how to use the US "extended deterrence" , which is mainly based on nuclear deterrence.
在推动日本安全战略重大调整的过程中，日本政界和右翼的背后也有美国“鹰派”的影子。日媒称，五角大楼对日本的核武器“不运入”原则早有怨言。美国前国防部高官科尔比近日声称，日本自民党提出的把军费提高到GDP 2%以上的措施“太晚了”，还建议借鉴美韩模式建立美日联合司令部。岸田文雄一直将核裁军作为“毕生事业”，明确表示仍坚持“无核三原则”、不考虑“核共享”选项，还提议明年在广岛召开七国集团峰会，宣示日本的无核立场。
There are also shadows of American "hawks" behind the Japanese political circles and the rightwing forces in the process of promoting the major adjustment of Japan's security strategy. Japanese media reported that the Pentagon has long complained about Japan's "non-import" principle of nuclear weapons. Former Pentagon Official Elbridge Colby recently claimed that the measures proposed by Japan's Liberal Democratic Party to raise military spending to more than two percent of its GDP were "too late" and suggested that the US-South Korea model should be used to establish a US-Japan joint command. Fumio Kishida has always regarded nuclear disarmament as a "life-long career" and made it clear that he still adheres to the "three non-nuclear principles" and does not consider the option of "nuclear sharing". He also proposed to hold a G7 summit in Hiroshima next year and declare Japan's non-nuclear position.
从强化美国“延伸威慑”角度看，不管是搞“核共享”也好，还是在日本部署新的常规武器系统也罢，必然要升级甚至新设驻日美军基地。日本目前已有88处美军基地，大部分集中在冲绳。最近在所谓冲绳“回归”五十周年之际，基地问题再次引发关注。当地政府和民众强烈要求把人口密集区的普天间基地搬离冲绳，但一直遭到日本政府拒绝。民众要求修改规定美军享有治外法权的《日美地位协定》，但岸田政府置若罔闻。这也反映了日本政府强化驻日美军存在的基本意向。
From the perspective of strengthening the US "extended deterrence", whether it involves "nuclear sharing" or deploying new conventional weapons systems in Japan, US military bases in Japan have to be upgraded and even built. Japan currently holds 88 US military bases, most of which are in Okinawa. On the 50th anniversary of the so-called "return" of Okinawa, the issue concerning US military base has once again attracted attention. The local government and the public strongly demanded the Futenma base, which locates in the densely populated area, be moved out of Okinawa. However the appeal has been continuously rejected by the Japanese government. The locals also demanded the revise of the US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement, which grants the extraterritorial rights of the US military. And again, the Kishida government turned a deaf ear to that. This also reflects the Japanese government's intension to strengthen the presence of US troops in Japan.
战后日本通过条约向美军提供军事基地，换取美国的军事保护。但现在，美国“延伸威慑”的强化，目标远远不是保护日本，而是与别国进行军事对抗，这正好与日本的战略野心相符。
After the World War II, Japan provided military bases to the US military in exchange for US military protection. But now, the strengthening of the US "extended deterrence" has gone beyond protecting Japan to conducting military confrontation with other countries. This is exactly in line with Japan's strategic ambitions.
对日本来说，中美缓和、地区稳定才符合其战略利益，而大国对抗、军事基地化将大大增加被卷入战争的风险。不知道日本国民、冲绳民众，是否和“政治精英”及右翼政客们同样做好了这种心理准备。
What fits Japan's strategic interest is the ease of tensions between China and US and regional stability, rather than engaging in major power confrontations and making itself a military. The later would only increase the risk of involving itself in war. I wonder if the Japanese and Okinawan people are as prepared as Japanese "political elites" and right-wing politicians.
（作者为中国现代国际关系研究院副院长、研究员）
(The author is the vice president and researcher of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations)
Editor's Note: This article is originally published on huanqiu.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
