方晓志
By Fang Xiaozhi
芬兰军队参加北约军事演习。
Finnish troops participate in NATO military drills.
当地时间5月18日，瑞典和芬兰正式申请加入北约，得到北约积极回应。作为长期奉行中立政策的国家，此次瑞芬两国申请加入北约，不仅是北约北扩迈出的重要一步，也是欧洲地缘政治大动荡背景下的重新洗牌，使本就充满不确定性的欧洲局势变得更加复杂动荡，安全风险进一步加剧。
Sweden and Finland officially applied to join NATO on May 18, local time and received a positive response from NATO. As countries that have long pursued a policy of neutrality, the application of the two countries this time is not only an important step for NATO's expansion in northern Europe but also a reshuffle in the context of the great geopolitical turmoil in Europe. It makes the situation in Europe more complex and volatile, and further aggravates security risks.
瑞芬加快“入约”步伐
Sweden and Finland step up application process
北欧国家瑞典和芬兰，长期奉行军事不结盟政策。冷战期间，瑞芬两国不与美苏任何一方结盟，保证了在两极对抗格局中的自身安全。冷战结束后，两国开始拉近与北约和欧盟的关系，但并没有突破中立国身份界限。1994年，两国加入北约“和平伙伴关系计划”，成为北约增强伙伴国。1995年，两国加入欧盟，开始参与欧洲一体化进程。2009年，两国加入北欧防务合作组织。总体而言，瑞芬两国采取军事不结盟政策，在复杂欧洲力量博弈中保持了特定平衡，为维护欧洲安全架构特别是北欧安全稳定发挥了重要作用。
Two Nordic countries, Sweden and Finland, have long pursued a military non-alignment policy. During the Cold War, the two countries did not form an alliance with the US or the Soviet Union, which ensured their own security in the bipolar confrontation pattern. After the end of the Cold War, the two countries began to draw closer ties with NATO and the EU but did not break through the boundaries of neutrality. In 1994, the two countries joined NATO's Partnership for Peace and became NATO's enhanced partner countries. In 1995, the two countries joined the EU and began to participate in the European integration process. In 2009, the two countries joined the Nordic Defense Cooperation. In general, the two countries have adopted a military non-alignment policy, maintained a specific balance in the complex game of European powers, and played an important role in maintaining the European security architecture, especially the security and stability of Northern Europe.
此次瑞芬两国申请加入北约，直接原因是受欧洲安全局势恶化影响，对未来安全环境和安全威胁的认知发生了重大变化。4月中旬，两国开始试探申请加入北约的可能性。时隔仅1个月，两国便正式申请加入北约。其目的不言而喻，即通过成为北约成员国，获得集体防御保护。
The direct reason for the NATO membership applications of the two countries is that their perception of the future security environment and security threats has undergone major changes due to the deteriorating security situation in Europe. The two countries began to test the possibility of joining NATO in mid-April. Only one month later, the two countries formally applied to join NATO. Their purpose is self-evident, to obtain collective defense protection by becoming NATO member states.
此外，北约的态度也是推动两国加入北约的重要因素。美英德等北约主要成员国已公开表示欢迎两国加入。5月11日，英国首相约翰逊在出访瑞典和芬兰期间，与两国达成新安全协议。5月12日，美国政府发言人普萨基表示，将支持瑞芬加入北约，并为两国提供过渡期的必要支持。5月15日，德国外交部长贝尔伯克宣称，德国政府已做好两国“入约”的准备工作。此外，立陶宛、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和丹麦等国都纷纷表态，将推动和支持瑞芬迅速加入北约，给两国吃下“定心丸”。
In addition, the attitude of NATO is also an important factor in promoting the two countries to join NATO. Major NATO member states such as the US, UK and Germany have publicly expressed their welcome to the two countries. On May 11, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reached a new security agreement with Sweden and Finland during his visit to the two countries. On May 12, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said that the US backs Sweden and Finland in applying for NATO memberships and will provide necessary support for the transition period for both countries. On May 15, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced that the German government has prepared for the two countries to join NATO. In addition, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Denmark and other countries have all expressed their willingness to promote and support the NATO memberships of Sweden and Finland quickly, which gave the two countries a "reassuring pill".
欧洲趋向“北约化”
Europe is facing more NATO memberships
冷战结束后，在美国主导下，北约先后进行了5次东扩，向东推进1000多公里，极大挤压了俄罗斯的战略缓冲空间。近年来，北约又将目光投向瑞典和芬兰，试图从更大范围对俄罗斯实施遏制和围堵，实现欧洲整体“北约化”。
After the end of the Cold War, NATO carried out five eastward expansions and advanced more than 1,000 kilometers eastward under the leadership of the US, which greatly squeezed Russia's strategic buffer space. In recent years, NATO has turned its attention to Sweden and Finland to contain Russia on a larger scale and to make Europe a continent with more NATO memberships.
从两国所处地理位置看，芬兰与俄罗斯之间有长约1300公里的边界线，是欧盟成员国中与俄边界线最长的国家。芬兰加入北约，将使北约与俄陆地边界线增加1倍，俄罗斯国门将对北约敞开。瑞典虽与俄没有陆地边界，但扼守从北海到波罗的海的出入口。在俄罗斯现有的3个欧洲出海口中，圣彼得堡和摩尔曼斯克都在北欧，俄罗斯船只从这两个港口出海，需经过瑞典或芬兰海岸线，全程都会被密切监视，这对俄在波罗的海的行动构成极大制约。两国加入北约后，北约便可拉起一条北起北极圈南至黑海的漫长军事封锁线，使俄罗斯处于被全面包围状态。
From the geographical location of the two countries, Finland and Russia have a borderline of about 1,300 kilometers, which is the longest borderline between Russia and EU member states. If Finland joins NATO, the land border between NATO and Russia will be doubled, and Russia's door will be open to the organization. Although Sweden shares no land border with Russia, it guards the entrance and exit from the North Sea to the Baltic Sea. Among Russia's three existing European outlets to the sea, St. Petersburg and Murmansk are both located in Northern Europe. Russian ships sailing from these two ports must pass through the Swedish or Finnish coastlines and will be closely monitored throughout the entire process. As a result, it poses great constraints for Russia's actions in the Baltic Sea. After the two countries join NATO, the organization can set up a long military blockade from the Arctic Circle in the north to the Black Sea in the south and put Russia in a state of complete siege.
此外，瑞芬两国加入北约，将增强北约整体实力。例如，芬兰有2万余名训练有素、装备精良的常备军，是欧洲仅有的几个实行征兵制的国家之一，有能力在发生战争时征召超过20万名预备役人员。值得指出的是，两国都曾与北约部队进行联合训练，并参加了北约领导的阿富汗行动和打击极端组织“伊斯兰国”国际联盟。总体来说，两国“入约”后，将成为北约的“净贡献者”。两国放弃中立国地位加入北约，还可能产生示范效应，推动欧洲多元化安全诉求走向一元化，使欧洲安全格局完全置于北约体系之下。
In addition, the joining of the two countries will enhance the overall strength of NATO. Finland has a well-trained and well-equipped standing army of more than 20,000 and is one of only a few countries in Europe with a conscription system. It is capable of enlisting more than 200,000 reservists in the event of war. It is worth noting that both countries have conducted joint training with NATO forces and participated in NATO-led operations in Afghanistan and the international coalition against the extremist group Islamic State. In general, the two countries will become "net contributors" to NATO. If the two countries give up their neutral status to join NATO, a demonstration effect may also take place, turning Europe's diversified security demands into a unified one and making the European security structure completely under the NATO system.
地区安全面临风险
Regional security at risk
北约战略空间向北扩张，将对俄罗斯安全空间和战略纵深构成威胁，甚至直接威胁俄在极地、北海和巴伦支海的利益。俄罗斯第二大城市圣彼得堡距离芬兰边界仅170公里，几乎没有战略纵深。这意味着俄重要经济中心将完全暴露在北约威胁之下。
The northward expansion of NATO's strategic space will pose a threat to Russia's security space and strategic depth, and even directly threaten Russia's interests in the polar regions, the North Sea and the Barents Sea. St. Petersburg, Russia's second-largest city, is only 170 kilometers from the Russian-Finnish border and has little strategic depth. This means that Russia's important economic center will be completely exposed to the threat of NATO.
北约上述举措引发俄罗斯高度警觉。俄外交部发表声明称，如果北约继续沿俄边境扩张，在北翼对俄构成军事威胁的话，俄将采取包括核威慑在内的报复措施。俄副外长格鲁什科警告称，瑞芬两国加入北约，就意味着“放弃无核地位”。俄可能改变战略核力量的目标设定，甚至在“飞地”加里宁格勒部署核武器。
NATO's above-mentioned actions have made Russia highly vigilant. The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that if NATO continues to expand along the Russian border and pose a military threat to Russia on the northern flank, Russia will take retaliatory measures, including nuclear deterrence. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko pointed out that by becoming NATO members Finland and Sweden would “actually give up… on their non-nuclear status”. Russia may change the target setting of its strategic nuclear forces and even deploy nuclear weapons in the exclave of Kaliningrad.
在当前国际安全局势紧张之际，欧洲地缘战略格局已脆弱不堪。瑞芬“入约”将导致欧洲安全局势进一步恶化，使欧洲各国陷入更严重的地缘政治动荡和风险之中，甚至引发无法预测的后果，不利于欧洲大陆长久发展，值得国际社会高度关注。
Amid the current tense international security situation, Europe's geostrategic landscape has been more fragile. The joining of Sweden and Finland will further deteriorate the security situation in Europe, plunge European countries into more serious geopolitical turmoil and risks, and even lead to unpredictable consequences. This is not conducive to the long-term development of the European continent and deserves close attention from the international community.
（作者为国防科技大学国际关系学院副教授）
(The author is an associate professor at the College of International Relations, National University of Defense Technology)
