Biden's "Indo-Pacific Strategy" comprehensive in appearance, empty in essence

拜登政府的“印太战略”看似全面实则空虚

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Wang Xinjuan
Time
2022-05-26 17:39:00

吴敏文

By Wu Minwen

5月20日至24日,美国总统拜登展开他上任后的首次亚洲之行。此前的5月12日至13日,拜登在白宫会见了东盟八国领导人(菲律宾和缅甸领导人因故未参与)。这些举措既是对2月11日发布的拜登政府《印太战略》报告的落实,也标志着拜登政府的“印太战略”已基本成型。

US President Joe Biden made his first Asian trip as US President from May 20 to 24 after meeting with leaders of eight ASEAN members (leaders of the Philippines and Myanmar didn't participate) at the White House on May 12 and 13. Both the meeting and the trip were aimed to substantiate the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" report released by the US government on February 11 this year, and also indicated the basic finalization of the so-called Indo-Pacific Strategy.

拜登政府全面继承了特朗普政府以遏制中国崛起为目的的“印太战略”。拜登政府在推行这一战略上的不同之处在于:一是重视盟友的作用,即不仅重视美、日、印、澳“四方安全对话”机制,而且多方发展联盟机制,甚至企图将北约组织移师印太;二是力图恢复“印太战略”的经济支撑,提出了“印太经济架构”的概念。

Biden has inherited the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" ensemble from his predecessor Donald Trump, but he has carried it out in a different way. He valued the allies' role in the strategy, not only forming the Quad mechanism but also developing many other alliances and even trying to expand NATO to the Indo-Pacific region. He also proposed the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)" to underpin the strategy economically.

然而,拜登政府拉拢盟友、拼凑经济架构的升级版“印太战略”看起来似乎比特朗普版更加“声势浩大”,也更加面面俱到,实质上却非常空虚,缺乏可操作性。

However, although Biden's upgraded version of "Indo-Pacific Strategy", which brought together more allies and patched up an economic framework, looks more comprehensive with greater fanfare, it is in fact an empty shell with little operability.

首先,美国内部事务和国内发展面临严重问题。与以往新任美国总统的亚洲之行相比,拜登的亚洲之行晚了一段时间其根本原因是美国的国内和自身发展问题,即大选造成的美国国内的政治撕裂、贫富悬殊、疫情影响和恶性通货膨胀等原因。在美国面临严重内部时问题,能够释放多少利多拉拢地区盟国很成问题。

First of all, the US is facing serious problems at home. Compared with previous US presidents, Biden’s first Asian trip came much later primarily because of domestic troubles and development difficulties, including political division, wealth gap, pandemic fallouts and vicious inflation caused by the presidential election. While it is struggling to deal with these domestic woes, how many benefits the US can spare to rope in regional allies is a big question mark.

同时,在拉帮结派围堵中国问题上,美国的欲望越来越超越实力的支撑。拜登在访问韩国期间签署了高达400亿美元的援助乌克兰计划,已经有美国议员提出“不能以毁掉美国经济为代价援助乌克兰”的警告。此次美国将东盟国家领导人请到白宫,宣布了总额1.5亿美元的一系列倡议。且不说这些计划和倡议能否落实,单就1.5亿美元的盘子由东盟十国分享而言,就颇有“食之无味”之嫌。

At the same time, the US is increasingly reaching for more than its capability allows on ganging up against China. When in ROK, Biden signed a USD 40 billion Ukraine aid bill, about which a US senator warned that "we cannot save Ukraine by dooming the US economy". During the meetings with ASEAN leaders at the White House, Biden also announced a series of initiatives to the tune of USD 150 million, which is really a white elephant considering it has to be split among ten countries – not to mention the uncertainty of their implementation.

其次,中国的发展势头无法遏制,对地区国家而言,是左右逢源,还是选边站,优劣不难判断。2021年全年和2022年第一季度,东盟连续成为中国的第一大贸易伙伴。这充分说明,中国的发展是东盟国家的机遇与福音,而不是挑战和威胁。

Second, as China's development momentum is unstoppable, whether to have it both ways or take sides is an easy question for regional countries. ASEAN was China's biggest trading partner in the whole year of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, which is solid proof that China's development brings opportunities and wellbeing rather than challenges and threats to ASEAN countries.

在文化和意识形态方面,印度尼西亚是穆斯林人口最多的国家,泰国是典型的佛教国家,越南的现行政治制度是社会主义制度。这对于尤其强调意识形态、文化价值观趋同的“印太战略”,东盟国家显然难以与美国取得认同和一致。在俄乌冲突条件下,美国出面要求今年的G20主席国印度尼西亚排除俄罗斯,对此,印度尼西亚明确予以拒绝。

On a cultural and ideological note, Indonesia has the largest number of Muslims, Thailand is a typical Buddhist country, and Vietnam currently adopts a socialist political system. This makes it hard for ASEAN countries to get on the same page with the US whose "Indo-Pacific Strategy" places a special emphasis on common ideologies and cultural values. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, the US asked Indonesia, this year's chair of G20, to exclude Russia, but got a flat no.

第三,美国力推的“印太经济架构”难以成事。美国经营“印太经济架构”已经半年,但至今语焉不详。目前,即使是已经表态加入的国家例如日本,也有自己的“小九九”。前些年美国退出TPP后,日本将其转变为自己牵头的CPTPP(全面且先进的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定),如何处理CPTPP与新的“印太经济架构”之间的关系,就是一个不大不小的难题。况且,美国下任政府像特朗普放弃TPP那样废掉“印太经济架构”怎么办?

Third, the "IPEF" pushed by the US will hardly succeed. The US has been busy establishing the "IPEF" for half a year, but still hasn't got anything substantial or definite. Countries that have promised to join the framework, such as Japan, also have their own calculations. After the US backed out of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) years ago, Japan has converted TPP into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) under its lead, and how to juggle it with the new "IPEF" is a little tricky. Besides, what if the next US president just abandons the framework like Trump abandoned TPP?

以美国为首的北约及其欧洲战略,已经导致俄乌冲突。欧洲国家正处于愁云惨雾之中。与此同时,虽然个别域外国家极力升高印太紧张局势,但地区国家大多头脑清醒,在紧张局势不利于任何国家这一点上具有基本共识。拜登版“印太战略”不过是新瓶装旧酒,正如国务委员兼外交部长王毅所说,美国炮制出来的“印太战略”旨在围堵中国,让亚太国家充当美国霸权的“马前卒”,其结果必然失败。

The US-led NATO and its European strategy have already produced the Russia-Ukraine conflict and thrown European countries into the midst of worries and concerns. Against such a background, while certain country out of the region is going to great lengths to escalate the tension in Indo-Pacific, countries in the region have kept sober heads and reached the consensus that tension is detrimental to everyone. The Biden version of "Indo-Pacific Strategy" is still the same old stuff left over by Trump despite a pretty, new package. As Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" concocted by the US is aimed at containing China and turning Asian-Pacific countries into "pawns" of US hegemony. It is bound to fail.

(作者单位:国防科技大学信息通信学院)

(The author is from the College of Information and Communication, National University of Defense Technology)

Editor's note: This article is originally published on zqb.cyol.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

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