许海云 侯新立
By Xu Haiyun and Hou Xinli
5月18日，芬兰和瑞典驻北约大使在布鲁塞尔北约总部举行的仪式上，向北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格递交了两国加入北约的申请。北约一旦吸纳两国实现“北扩”，将加剧与俄罗斯的对立，加速欧洲政治与安全分裂，增加地区安全风险。
The ambassadors of Finland and Sweden to NATO handed in their official letters of application to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a ceremony held at the organization's headquarters in Brussels on May 18. The inclusion of the two countries in NATO will further expand the organization northward, worsen the antagonism with Russia, accelerate political and security division in Europe, and increase regional security risks.
动机缘于多方考量
Finland and Sweden's application is driven by multiple considerations.
芬兰与瑞典放弃永久中立国地位，选择在这个敏感时期不惜冒着与俄罗斯决裂的风险执意加入北约，并非一时兴起。
Finland and Sweden's decision to waive their permanent neutral position and to join NATO at such a sensitive moment on the risk of a rupture with Russia isn't a spur of the moment.
欧洲地缘政治变化是两国申请加入北约的重要原因。北约连续五次东扩，使欧洲政治与安全天平不断向美西方国家倾斜。而俄乌冲突的持续蔓延，亦成为芬兰与瑞典不断靠近北约的助推剂。
The geopolitical changes in Europe are an important reason for their application. NATO’s five rounds of eastward expansion has increasingly tilted Europe's political and security scale toward the US-led West, and the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict has given another push to Finland and Sweden toward NATO.
受政治操弄的影响，同时也因西方媒体对俄罗斯持续抹黑、负面宣传甚至恐吓等，芬兰76%的国民支持加入北约，瑞典50%的国民支持加入北约。这种民意变化构成两国改变中立地位的社会民意基础。
Partly because of political manipulation and partly because of western media's endless smearing and negative reporting of Russia to the point of intimidation, 76% of the Finns and 50% of Swedes are for joining NATO. The changes in public opinion lay the social foundation for them to give up the neutral position.
增加地区安全风险
The move increases regional security risks.
芬兰与俄罗斯之间陆地边界约1300公里，其一旦加入北约，直接的后果是，俄罗斯与北约国家的陆地边界长度将几乎增加一倍，波罗的海将成为“北约内海”，俄罗斯在波罗的海地区和北极地区将处于北约国家包围之中。一旦两国成为北约遏制俄罗斯的前沿，俄罗斯必将会部署重兵应对，甚至将芬兰与瑞典设定为战略威慑目标。
Considering that Finland has a roughly 1,300km-long land boundary with Russia, its admission into NATO will almost double the land boundary between Russia and NATO countries, turn the Baltic Sea into the organization's enclosed sea, and surround Russia with NATO members in the Baltic and arctic regions. Once Finland and Sweden become the forward position of NATO's containment of Russia, Moscow will definitely respond with heavy troops deployments; it may even take the two countries as the targets of strategic deterrence.
两国放弃中立地位加入北约，不仅将加剧欧洲地缘政治竞争，还会激化欧洲的紧张局势。俄与北约将各自加大军力、财政以及武器装备的投入力度，还可能在俄芬边境等更大的战略区域开辟新的角力场。
The two countries' moving away from their neutrality to join NATO will not only intensify geopolitical competition in Europe, but also exacerbate the tension on the continent as both Moscow and Brussels will invest more military, fiscal and weapon resources, and likely open a new arena in a broader strategic area such as the Russia-Finland border.
入约之路仍存变数
The access to NATO remains uncertain.
按照规程，北约必须在30个成员国“一致同意”的前提下才能吸纳新成员。但北约内部近日接连传出了不欢迎的声音。土耳其总统埃尔多安5月18日表示，土耳其不会同意任何可能危及北约组织和土耳其自身安全的北约扩大行为。
Procedurally, NATO can only take in new entrants upon a unanimous agreement of all 30 existing members, who, however, don't seem to see eye to eye on the issue. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on May 18 that his country won't agree to any expansion that may endanger NATO’s and Turkey’s security.
克罗地亚总统米拉诺维奇日前表示，除非波黑修改其选举法，使该国的克罗地亚族更容易当选地方公职，否则他不会支持芬兰和瑞典加入北约的申请。
Croatian president Zoran Milanović said he won't agree to Finland and Sweden's membership application unless Bosnia and Herzegovina revised its election law to make it easier for its Croatian people to hold public offices.
此外，还有一些北约国家担心，鉴于芬兰、瑞典与俄罗斯有过不少恩怨，两国加入北约后很可能会使相关国家被迫承担“集体防卫”的义务。芬兰与俄罗斯在领土方面存在纠葛，其加入北约后对俄心理优势将得到增强，甚至可能实施外交与军事冒险。
Some NATO countries worry that given Finland and Sweden's historical discords with Russia, their joining will probably burden relevant countries with the obligations of "collective defense". Finland in particularhas territorial disputes with Russia, and its NATO membership will definitely give it a sort of psychological superiority over Moscow that may lead it to diplomatic and military adventures.
即使在两国内部以及美国，对芬、瑞加入北约也存在反对声音。曾在北约驻德国部队任职的美军上校丹尼尔·戴维近日接受瑞典媒体采访时也表示：“没有迹象表明瑞典有被入侵的风险，相反，成为北约成员国会增加风险。”
Opposition also comes from the two countries themselves and the US. Retired US Colonel Daniel Davis who used to work in NATO forces in Germany said in a recent interview with Swedish media that there was no sign that Sweden was facing any risk of invasion; on the contrary, its NATO membership will increase the risks.
芬兰与瑞典一旦加入北约，不仅会加速欧洲的政治与安全分裂，还会推动欧洲加速形成类似冷战时期的集团对立局面，这对于欧洲和平与发展绝非好消息。
If Finland and Sweden were indeed admitted to NATO, that would not only speed up the political and security split on the European continent, but also expedite the formation of Cold War-style bloc confrontation, which is anything but good news for Europe's peace and development.
（作者单位：中国人民大学）
(The author is from Renmin University of China)
Editor's note: This article is originally published on youth.cn, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
