刘世刚
By Liu Shigang
作为二战的战败国，日本在战后制定了和平宪法，并在防务方面出台了诸多限制措施，如承诺不向其他国家出口武器、防卫开支不超过国内生产总值的1%、宣布“无核三原则”等。然而，多年来，日本政府不断突破相关政策限制，意欲架空和平宪法，防卫政策的进攻色彩越来越浓。
As a losing party in WWII, Japan formulated its Peace Constitution after the war and set many restrictions on itself in terms of defense, including not exporting weapons to other countries, defense expenditure not exceeding 1% of GDP, and announcing the “Three Non-Nuclear Principles” of “not possessing, not producing and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons into Japan”. However, for many years, the Japanese government has constantly broken relevant policy restrictions in an attempt to hollow out the Peace Constitution, with its defense policy becoming increasingly offensive.
不久前，日本首相岸田文雄在与美国总统拜登会晤后的联合记者会上宣布，将从根本上强化日本防卫，大幅增加防卫预算。这是日本妄图挣脱和平宪法约束，改变防卫政策的最新表现。
Not long ago, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced at the joint press briefing after his meeting with US president Joe Biden that Japan will fundamentally reinforce its defense capabilities and increase its defense budget by a large margin. That was the latest development of Japan’s endeavor to break free from the Peace Constitution and change the current defense policy.
防卫预算或将翻番
Japan may double defense budget
以原防卫大臣小野寺五典为会长的日本自民党安全保障调查会向政府建言，应向北约国家看齐，将防卫预算占国内生产总值比例不得超过1%的标准调整为不得超过2%，这一目标应争取在未来5年内实现。这也意味着，日本防卫预算届时最少将在现有基础上翻一倍。
Itsunori Onodera, former defense minister and chairman of the LDP’s Research Commission on Security, suggested the Japanese government follow NATO’s standard and raise the cap on the proportion of defense budget in GDP from 1% to 2% in the next five years. This suggestion, if adopted, will double Japan’s current defense budget at least.
2022年，日本防卫预算高达6.17万亿日元。根据日本防卫省网站公布的数字，自卫队现拥有约26.8万人，以此计算，2021年自卫队人均防卫预算约为美军人均军费57.2万美元的30%。
The country’s defense budget already hit 6.17 trillion Yen in 2022. According to numbers published on the website of the Japanese Ministry of Defense, the JSDF has about 268,000 members at the moment, which means its per capita defense budget in 2021 was 30% of US$572,000, the per capita defense budget of US members.
如果日本将防卫预算标准提升到占国内生产总值的2%以上，那么其自卫队人均防卫开支水平将达到美军的六成以上。届时，日本或将打破地区力量均衡。
If Japan were to increase its defense budget to over 2% of GDP, then JSDF’s per capita defense spending would exceed 60% of the American number, and Tokyo would definitely break the balance of power in the region.
“专守防卫”转向先发制人
Japan to move from “exclusive defense orientation” to “preemptive action”
“专守防卫”是日本二战后长期坚持的防卫方针，但近年来这一方针却不断松动。本世纪初，日本大批采购美导弹防御系统，开始谋求获取预警和打击“敌导弹发射策源地”的能力。小野寺五典提出，自卫队的“反击能力”包括在意识到敌人正准备攻击日本时打击敌方的能力。
Japan has been complying with the exclusively defense-oriented policy since the end of WWII, but not so strictly and willingly in recent years. At the beginning of this century, it bought a lot of US-made missile defense systems to obtain the capacity to issue an early warning and attack an enemy country’s missile launch bases. Itsunori Onodera said JSDF’s “counterstrike capability” should include the ability to attack the enemy when realizing its intention to attack Japan.
目前，日本正在研发射程据称可达1000千米的巡航导弹以及新型地空、空舰和舰舰导弹，未来不排除研发中远程地对地导弹的可能，进一步增强向他国发动所谓“预防性攻击”的能力。届时，日本的“专守防卫”政策将名存实亡。
Japan is currently developing a cruise missile with an alleged range of 1,000km and new types of ground-to-air, air-to-ship and ship-to-ship missiles, with the possibility of developing medium and long-range ground-to-ground missiles further down the road to enable itself to make so-called “preventive attacks” against other countries. By that time, the “exclusively defense-oriented” policy will be nothing but an empty shell.
提供武器“特例”成恶例
“Exception” of weapon provision is a bad beginning
俄乌冲突爆发后，日本紧急通过《防卫装备转移三原则应用方针》修订案，允许防卫大臣可以向乌克兰提供自卫队持有的防卫装备。这是日本自卫队首次向正处于战争状态的冲突当事方提供了防卫装备。
After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, Japan passed the revision to the Implementation Guidelines for the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology, allowing its defense minister to provide JSDF’s defense equipment to Ukraine. This was the first time that JSDF provided defense equipment to a party engaged in an ongoing war.
此举不仅严重违背联合国宪章“和平解决国际争端”有关精神，也严重违反日本“防卫装备转移三原则”中“禁止向冲突当事国转让防卫装备”的有关规定。
What Japan did was not only a serious breach of the spirit of “settling international disputes by peaceful means” enshrined in the UN charter, but also went against the rule in its Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology that it is prohibited from transferring defense equipment to a country currently engaged in a conflict.
此恶例一开，未来一旦日本周边“有事”，不排除日本再次以临时修订该应用方针的方式，向冲突当事方提供自卫队持有的武器装备，为日本进行对外军事干预提供依据。
With this bad precedent, it’s possible that Japan will repeat this trick – making an ad-hoc revision to the three principles and giving itself the legal basis to provide JSDF’s weapons and equipment to a conflicting party – whenever something happens in its surroundings, paving the way for external military intervention.
2014年，日本政府以修改宪法解释的形式，有限度地解禁集体自卫权，将日本行使武力的条件扩大到了其所谓“关系密切国家”遭受“武力攻击”、日本的安全面临“明确危险”时。日本防卫政策不断异变的一系列危险信号，值得各方高度警惕。
In 2014, Japan, by revising the constitutional interpretations, lifted the ban on collective self-defense in a limited way, and expanded the conditions for it to use force “when an armed attack against a foreign country that is in a close relationship with Japan occurs and as a result threatens Japan’s survival and poses a clear danger”. These successive, cumulative deviations of Japan’s defense policy are sending a dangerous signal, and all parties should raise a high alert.
（作者单位：军事科学院战争研究院）
(The author is from the Institute of War Studies of the PLA Academy of Military Sciences)
