Who is creating chaos for global nuclear security?

谁在给全球核安全添乱?

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Li Weichao
Time
2022-06-23 19:32:22

6月13日,瑞典智库斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所发布核武器研究报告,报告显示,截至今年1月,全球现有12705枚核弹头,比去年同期减少375枚。全球核武器数量在《新削减战略武器条约》约束下总体呈下降态势,然而同时,该研究所高级研究员克里斯滕森也指出,有迹象表明,冷战结束以来全球核武器数量持续减少的趋势已经结束,核升级的风险现在处于后冷战时期的最高点。

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a Swedish think tank, released a report on nuclear weapons research on June 13. According to the report, there were 12,705 nuclear warheads in the world as of January 2022, a decrease of 375 compared with that of last year. The number of global nuclear weapons has generally declined under the constraints of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. However, at the same time, Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI, pointed out that there are clear indications that the steady decline in global nuclear arsenals since the end of the Cold War has ended. The risk of nuclear conflict is now at its highest point in the post-Cold War era.

通过对当前国际局势的观察,该智库预测,未来10年内全球核武器数量将呈现增长态势。这意味着全球核武器数量在经过35年的下滑后,将在未来数年重新增加。在国际局势风云变幻、冲突对抗不断的背景下,全球核安全风险不断加剧,是哪些因素导致了核安全风险的升级?

Based on the current international situation, SIPRI predicts that the number of nuclear weapons in the world will increase in the next 10 years. This means that after 35 years of decline, the number of global nuclear weapons will increase again in the next few years. Against the background of ever-changing international situations and constant conflicts and confrontations, global nuclear security risks are increasing. In a recent interview, military observers Wang Baofu and Teng Jianqun shared their views on what factors caused the escalation of global nuclear security risks in an international context of ongoing conflict.

零和博弈和冷战思维导致核大国出现新的军备竞赛。为了维护其在所谓大国竞争中的绝对优势,美国正在紧锣密鼓推进核武器现代化。今年一月,美国智库兰德公司发布《核武器现代化——新洲际导弹的理论基础》报告,详细分析了美国目前正在进行的核现代化计划。另外,根据美国2023财年国防预算草案,美国用于核武库维护和升级的预算达到344亿美元,远高于2022财年的277亿美元。值得注意的是,美国在对核武库进行升级的同时,还不断降低核武器使用门槛。除使用B61-12新型核弹外,美军还在研发并试验其他低当量核弹头。

Firstly, zero-sum game and Cold War mentality have led to a new arms race among nuclear powers. To maintain its absolute superiority in the so-called major power competition, the US has pressed ahead with the modernization of nuclear weapons. In January 2022, US think tank RAND Corporation released the report "Modernizing the US Nuclear Triad: The Rationale for a New Intercontinental Ballistic Missile" which analyzed in detail the nuclear modernization plan currently underway in the US. In addition, according to the draft US defense budget for the fiscal year 2023, the budget for nuclear arsenal maintenance and upgrades reached US$34.4 billion, well above the US$27.7 billion in the fiscal year 2022. It is worth noting that while the US has upgraded its nuclear arsenal, it has also continuously lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. In addition to the new B61-12 nuclear bomb, the US military is also developing and testing other low-yield nuclear warheads.

作为传统的核武器国家,英国和法国都把核力量作为支撑大国地位非常重要的一个支柱,都希望在核技术领域、核能力方面,能够保持原来自己所处的领先位置。

As traditional nuclear-weapon states, the UK and France both regard nuclear power as a very important pillar to support their status as major powers, and both hope to maintain their leading positions in the field of nuclear technology and nuclear capabilities.

面对美国和北约的战略围堵和打压,俄罗斯也将发展战略核力量列为装备发展优先方向,不断推进“三位一体”核力量现代化。尤其是俄乌冲突爆发之后,美国不断煽风点火,怂恿盟友和其他国家对俄罗斯实施全面封锁和制裁。然而,制裁力度越大,俄罗斯的反抗越激烈,战争扩大的风险就越大。以美国为首的西方国家应认真考虑把一个核大国逼上绝境的严重后果。

In the face of strategic containment and suppression by the US and NATO, Russia has also listed the development of strategic nuclear forces as a priority for equipment development and has continued to advance the modernization of its nuclear triad. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US continued to fan the flames and instigate allies and other countries to impose comprehensive blockades and sanctions on Russia. However, strong sanctions will lead to stronger Russian resistance and a greater risk of an escalation of war. Western countries led by the US should seriously consider the grave consequences of driving a nuclear power to the wall.

霸权行径和双重标准增加核扩散风险。美国与英国、澳大利亚结成三方安全伙伴关系(AUKUS)并计划开展核潜艇合作,以企推动构建极具冷战色彩的军事小圈子,大搞集团政治和阵营对抗。这种赤裸裸的核扩散行径公然违反《不扩散核武器条约》,严重破坏和践踏了国际核不扩散机制,对国际核军控形势产生不利影响,引起国际社会的严重关切。

Secondly, hegemonic practices and double standards increase the risk of nuclear proliferation. The US has formed a tripartite security partnership (AUKUS) with the UK and Australia and plans to carry out nuclear submarine cooperation to promote the establishment of a cold war-like military clique, and engage in bloc politics and camp confrontation. This blatant nuclear proliferation act flagrantly violates the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), seriously undermines and tramples on the international nuclear non-proliferation regime, adversely affects the international nuclear arms control situation, and arouses serious concern from the international community.

6月6日以来,国际原子能机构连续召开专项会议,审议美英澳核潜艇合作事宜。但澳大利亚代表美英澳三国所作的发言避重就轻,始终回避三国合作所涉核武器材料非法转让这一本质,在核扩散问题上奉行“双重标准”。

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has held successive special meetings to review the cooperation on nuclear submarines between the US, UK, and Australia since June 6. However, the statement made by Australia on behalf of the three countries avoided the illicit transfer of nuclear weapons materials involved in the trilateral cooperation and pursued "double standards" on nuclear proliferation.

美、英一方面对其他无核武器国家开发并获取民用核材料实施单边制裁;另一方面却对澳大利亚网开一面,公然、直接向澳扩散核武器材料。这种“只许州官放火,不许百姓点灯”的霸凌行径,不仅严重危害地区安全,也产生不良的示范效应,势必进一步增加核安全风险。

On the one hand, the US and the UK imposed unilateral sanctions on other non-nuclear-weapon states for developing and acquiring civilian nuclear materials. On the other hand, they openly and directly proliferated nuclear weapons materials to Australia. This bullying behavior not only seriously endangers regional security, but also has a negative demonstration effect, which is bound to further increase the risk of nuclear security.

日本就是一个很好的例子。在美英澳核潜艇项目之后,日本在核潜艇问题上也表现得蠢蠢欲动。近期日本政客还频频妄言,要同美国核共享,试图突破自身承诺的无核三原则,改变防务政策,引入美核武器。

Japan is a typical example. After the nuclear submarine projects of the US, UK and Australia, Japan has also shown signs of making moves on the issue of nuclear submarines. Recently, Japanese politicians have frequently said that they want to share nuclear weapons with the US, striving to discard the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, change their defense policy and introduce US nuclear weapons.

渲染威胁和挑起对抗导致伊核等地区热点问题的解决举步维艰。2018年5月,美国特朗普政府单方面退出伊核协议,随后重启并追加对伊制裁,对伊奉行“极限施压”政策。虽然拜登政府声称会改变前总统特朗普时期的错误政策,但其所作所为仍然是在继续特朗普时期的对伊政策。

Thirdly, exaggerating threats and provoking confrontation have made it difficult to resolve regional hotspot issues such as the Iranian nuclear issue. In May 2018, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, then restarted and imposed additional sanctions on Iran, and pursued a policy of "extreme pressure" on Iran. Although the Biden administration claimed to change the wrong policies of the previous Trump administration, it is continuing the Trump-era policy towards Iran.

近段时间以来,美国和以色列一直在谋求建立区域反伊朗联盟。美国跨党派立法者团体于6月9日提出立法,将授权美国政府与以色列、埃及、约旦、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、巴林、卡塔尔、阿曼、科威特和伊拉克合作,就发展和部署针对伊朗的综合空中和导弹防御系统展开讨论,并要求6个月之内提交战略报告。

The US and Israel have been seeking to establish a regional anti-Iran coalition. A bipartisan group of US lawmakers introduced legislation on June 9 that would authorize the US government to work with Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Iraq to discuss the development and deployment of an integrated air and missile defense system against Iran and submit a strategic report within six months.

在此过程中,美国和以色列也一直渲染伊朗的威胁。对此,伊朗回应称,将对针对其领土的最轻微威胁做出“严厉”回应。旨在联合中东国家孤立伊朗的美以联盟,无论成功与否,都势必使伊核协议谈判变得更加渺茫。围堵孤立和极限施压不仅不能解决伊核问题,反而可能会加快伊朗谋求核武器的步伐,进一步打破中东局势的安全平衡,给世界带来新的核安全风险。

In the process, the US and Israel have also been playing up the Iranian threat. In response, Iran said it would respond "seriously" to the slightest threat to its territory. A US-Israel alliance aimed at uniting Middle Eastern countries to isolate Iran, whether successful or not, is bound to make negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal even more impossible. Containment, isolation and extreme pressure will not only fail to solve the Iranian nuclear issue, but may accelerate Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, further disrupt the security balance in the Middle East and bring new nuclear security risks to the world.

从地区冲突到军备竞赛,从军事同盟到核扩散风险,世界核安全风险升级的背后处处都能见到美国的身影。众所周知,核战争没有赢家。美国等核大国持续推进核武器现代化,不断强化核武库建设,加速发展战术核武器,势必增加全球核战争风险,对国际安全局势产生深远影响。

From regional conflicts to arms races, from military alliances to nuclear proliferation risks, the US can be seen everywhere behind the escalation of nuclear security risks in the world. As we all know, there are no winners in a nuclear war. The continuous promotion of modernizing nuclear weapons and building nuclear arsenals, and acceleration of the development of tactical nuclear weapons by the US and some nuclear powers will inevitably increase the risk of global nuclear war and exert a profound impact on the international security situation.

Editor's note: This article is edited on the basis of a radio program on www.cnr.cn and translated from Chinese into English by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

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