季澄
By Ji Cheng
6月17日,为期13天的“波罗的海行动-2022”北约年度联合军演落下帷幕。此次演习由美国、英国、法国、德国、土耳其等14个北约成员国，以及瑞典、芬兰两个北约伙伴国共同参与。分析人士指出，作为北约在北欧地区举行的最大规模军演之一，“波罗的海行动-2022”地点敏感、实战意味浓厚，或将进一步加剧地区局势动荡。
NATO’s annual military exercise, the 13-day-long BALTOPS 2022 involving 14 NATO members including the US, Britain, France, Germany and Turkey, and the two partners Sweden and Finland, wrapped up on June 17. Analysts said the exercise, as one of the largest held by NATO in north Europe, may further escalate regional turmoil for its sensitive location and strong combat implications.
据悉，此次参演兵力涵盖陆海空军和海军陆战队人员，总计超7000人，另有约45艘军舰和70余架战机配合行动。演习内容包括两栖作战、反潜、防空、扫雷以及战场救援等一系列课目。
It is learned more than 7,000 soldiers from the army, navy, air force and marines participated in the exercise, along with about 45 ships and more than 70 warplanes. The subjects exercised included amphibious operation, anti-submarine operation, air defense, mine clearing, and rescue on the battlefield.
此外，北约选择哥得兰岛作为演习核心区域也具有极强指向性。哥得兰岛位于波罗的海中心，是该海域面积最大的岛屿，也是名副其实的海上战略枢纽。由此向东，可有效控守通往圣彼得堡的海上航道；向南，可实时洞悉位于加里宁格勒的俄波罗的海舰队动向。一旦瑞典和芬兰成为北约正式成员国，圣彼得堡与加里宁格勒间的海上航道将面临被拦腰截断的危险，而波罗的海区域的战略平衡也将被打破。
The choice of Gotland Island as the key zone for the exercise also spoke volumes. Sitting in the center of the Baltic Sea, the island, the largest in the sea area, is a strategic maritime pivot that, in the east direction, commands the sea route to St. Petersburg and, to the south, keeps an eye on Russia’s Baltic Fleet in Kaliningrad. Once Sweden and Finland become official members of NATO, the route between St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad would be at stake, and so would the strategic equilibrium in the Baltic region.
当前，俄乌局势仍扑朔迷离，以美国为首的北约此时举行大规模军演，除有意在军事层面分散俄罗斯注意力、威慑其地区军事存在外，还隐含更深层战略考量。
Holding such a massive military exercise at a moment when the Russia-Ukraine situation remained unclear and complicated, the US-led NATO obviously had more birds to kill than distracting Russia on the military level and deterring its military presence in the region.
首先，履行对瑞典和芬兰既有承诺，为其提供安全保障。今年5月，瑞典和芬兰两国一改此前的不结盟政策，转而申请加入北约。瑞典首相和芬兰总统访美期间，拜登曾向其作出安全保证，此次演习被视为美国履行承诺的具体实践 。而作为演习东道国的瑞典，亦将此次军演看作向北约深度靠拢的良机，并希望借此打造自身维护地区安全的“参与者”和“贡献者”的形象。
For one thing, NATO was honoring its commitment to providing a security guarantee for Sweden and Finland. The two countries, going back on their non-alignment policy, applied to join the group in May this year. When Sweden’s Prime Minister and Finnish President visited the US, Biden promised them a security guarantee, of which the latest exercise was obviously a concrete step toward fulfillment. Sweden, as the host country of the exercise, also took BALTOPS 2022 as an opportunity to tighten its relations with NATO and paint itself as a participant in and contributor to safeguarding regional security.
其次，凝聚北约内部士气，为瑞典和芬兰最终“入约”预热造势。演习前，搭载MV-22“鱼鹰”倾转旋翼机、AH-1“眼镜蛇”武装直升机的美海军大型两栖攻击舰“基萨奇”号首次驶入斯德哥尔摩港，并在该舰甲板举行美、瑞两国防务高层记者会，以凸显美国力挺瑞典加入北约的决心。与此同时，此举也有安抚土耳其，争取其同意瑞典和芬兰“入约”的意图。
For another, NATO was trying to ramp up the morale and warm up for the final admission of Sweden and Finland. Before the exercise kicked off, the USS Kearsarge amphibious assault ship carrying the MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft and AH-1 Cobra armored helicopter sailed into the Port of Stockholm for the first time, and a press conference for American and Swedish senior defense officials was held on its deck, showing America’s determination to back Sweden in its application to become a NATO member. It also aimed to placate Turkey and secure its nod to accept the two new entrants.
最后，借军演引发的外溢效应，拉拢更多地区国家加入西方精心编织的排俄“小圈子”，从多个战略方向收紧对俄战略包围圈。据报道，在演习开启仅两天后，北约负责国防投资的助理秘书长卡米尔•格兰德便声称，在瑞典和芬兰加入北约的情况下，北约不会向俄罗斯保证不在两国境内部署核武器。北约近期不仅频繁举行多场军演，还发表有关核威胁言论，将持续推高地区军事风险。
At last, NATO, using the overspill effects of the exercise, wanted to pull more regional countries into the anti-Russia “net” carefully woven by the West and further squeeze Russia’s strategic space on multiple dimensions. It is reported that two days after the exercise began, Camille Grand, Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investment at NATO, stated that with Sweden and Finland joining the organization, NATO won’t give Russia its word not to deploy nuclear weapons in the two countries. NATO’s constant military exercises and remarks of nuclear threats will only flame up the military risks in the region.
面对北约此番针对性极强的大规模军演，俄罗斯迅速予以强硬回击。据报道，俄罗斯波罗的海舰队近日在波罗的海海域举行大规模军事演习。除此之外，俄罗斯还在加里宁格勒地区举行陆上演习。可以预见，倘若北约仍执意采取单边行动激化俄欧矛盾，势必触发俄罗斯更加强烈的“回应”。届时，地区动荡局势恐不断加剧。
Moscow was quick and tough in responding to NATO’s highly targeted, large-scale exercise. Media reported that Russia’s Baltic Fleet also held a massive exercise in the Baltic Sea recently, along with a land exercise around Kaliningrad. If NATO insists on continuing with its unilateral actions to aggravate the conflicts between Russia and Europe, it will leave Moscow no choice but to respond with greater intensity. At that time, the regional situation will only get worse.
（作者单位：军事科学院）
(The author is from the PLA Academy of Military Sciences)
