王晋
By Wang Jin
7月13日至16日，美国总统拜登出访中东地区，相继访问了以色列、巴勒斯坦约旦河西岸和沙特阿拉伯。其间，拜登同各方重点讨论了应对伊朗威胁和组建中东防空联盟等议题。此举不仅不会带来安全稳定，还将导致中东局势更加紧张、局面更加分裂。
US President Biden visited the Middle East from July 13 to 16, which brought him to Israel, the west bank of the Jordan River of Palestine, and Saudi Arabia. During the visit, Biden discussed with his hosts how to cope with the threats from Iran, forming a Middle Eastern air defense alliance, and other topics. This move, instead of bringing security and stability, will cause greater tension and division in the region.
2019年以来，关于美国在中东组建军事同盟的消息甚嚣尘上。在白宫宣布拜登出访行程后，有关美国在中东地区打造类北约联盟的讨论愈演愈烈。美国极力打造中东防空联盟，旨在实现两个方面的目的。
What has been widely speculated is that Washington plans to build a military alliance in the Middle East since 2019. After the White House announced Biden’s upcoming visit, discussions about America forming a NATO-like alliance in the region have got increasingly heated. The US intends to achieve two goals through such an alliance.
一方面，向地区盟国提供安全保证。在俄乌冲突加剧全球能源危机的背景下，美国希望通过说服中东地区产油国大幅增产，平抑国际油价，缓解国内通胀。为此，美国加快与伊朗在核问题上的谈判，并逐渐缓和与沙特、卡塔尔、阿联酋等国关系。美国既希望将伊朗能源重新拉回国际市场，又需要安抚中东盟国，向它们作出安全保证。另一方面，继续在中东地区“垂帘听政”。不同于美国的欧亚盟国，美国的中东盟国一直缺少体系化、条约化安全合作机制。拜登执政后，一直避免直接参与中东地区冲突。正是在拜登执政时期，美国从阿富汗完全撤离，在伊拉克撤出所有“战斗部队”。但是美国仍需关注中东事务，希望动员中东盟国自己“出钱出人”，美国“出枪出炮”，构建新的中东地区体系。对美国而言，组建中东防空联盟既能推动中东盟国深化安全合作，又能让自己躲在幕后避免“冲锋陷阵”，还能促使这些盟国继续购买美国军火。
On the one hand, it hopes to provide a security guarantee for regional allies. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict aggravated the global energy crisis, the US hopes to keep down oil prices in the international market and mitigate domestic inflation by persuading the Middle Eastern countries to increase oil production. Therefore, Washington has accelerated the negotiations with Iran on the nuclear issue and eased relations with countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE. It wants Iran’s energy resources back into the international market but also needs to placate its Middle Eastern allies and give them a security guarantee. On the other hand, it hopes to maintain its remote control over the region. Unlike the European and Asian allies, there is never a systemic and treaty-based security cooperation mechanism to include its Middle Eastern allies. Since Biden came into power, he has been avoiding any direct engagement in conflicts in the Middle East. It is during his term that America pulled back from Afghanistan and withdrew all “combat forces” from Iraq. But it needs to keep an eye on the region and hopes to forge a new architecture , in which its Middle Eastern allies provide money and manpower and the US sells weapons and equipment. Forming a regional air defense alliance will deepen the security cooperation among America’s Middle Eastern allies, keep the US behind the scene without having to come forth to the frontline, and make the allies keep buying American arms.
需要指出的是，美国谋划的中东防空联盟，难以在短期内实现。 However, such a kill-three-birds-with-one-stone plan is hard to come through in the near term. 首先，美国所谓中东防空联盟中的关键国家伊拉克不会加入。想要构建针对伊朗的地区防空联盟，必须在沙特、阿联酋和以色列等国周边，建立完备情报网络和足够防空拦截纵深。因此，伊朗西部邻国伊拉克，成为美国拉拢对象。目前，伊拉克舆论对同美国开展军事合作十分抵触。另外，伊拉克和伊朗关系较近，伊拉克政府难以公开批准同以色列等国的军事合作。因此，美国版中东防空联盟，从地理版图上缺失了一个重要部分。
Firstly, Iraq, a key building block of the so-called Middle Eastern air defense alliance, won’t join it. To build such an alliance against Iran, the US needs to develop a sound intelligence network and sufficient air defense depth for interception around Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel, so the US decides to rope in Iraq, a neighbor of Iran. However, the Iraqi public is strongly against military cooperation with the US. Besides, considering its close relations with Iran, the Iraqi government won’t publicly approve the military cooperation with countries like Israel either. This means America’s air defense alliance in the Middle East will miss an important part.
其次，以色列、沙特和阿联酋之间存在裂隙。以色列不希望沙特和阿联酋获得先进军事技术，在军事合作中有所保留。沙特和阿联酋希望以色列在巴以问题上作出让步，否则很难说服国内舆论支持同以色列的合作。沙特和阿联酋在如何解决也门战事问题上，也存在明显分歧。
Secondly, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and UAE don’t see eye-to-eye with each other. Israel will have reservations about military cooperation because it doesn’t want Saudi Arabia and UAE to have access to advanced military technologies, while those two hope Israel could make concessions on the conflict with Palestine, otherwise they cannot convince their people of supporting the military cooperation with Israel. Saudi and UAE also disagree on how to solve the war in Yemen.
再次，卡塔尔、科威特和阿曼等国，并不支持建立地区防空联盟。卡塔尔最大海上油气田同伊朗接壤，因此不愿激怒伊朗，一直力图在沙特和伊朗地区竞争中保持中立。科威特和阿曼在历史上同伊朗关系密切，国内有大量伊朗侨民，也不愿同伊朗公开对立。
Thirdly, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman don’t support the idea of a regional air defense alliance. Qatar’s largest offshore oil and gas field borders Iran, so it doesn’t want to irritate the neighbor and has been trying to stay neutral between Saudi and Iran. Kuwait and Oman don’t want to stand against it either as they are traditionally close with Iran and have many Iranian immigrants.
（作者为西北大学中东研究所副教授）
(The author is an associate professor at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, Northwest University.)
