詹德斌
By Zhan Debin
韩国总统府安保室室长金圣翰曾在大选期间用“基于国际团结的自强”来概括尹锡悦政府的外交政策。果然，尹锡悦总统一上台就忙着强化美日韩三边合作，参与发起“印太经济框架”，推动加入“四边机制”，亲自出席北约峰会，其间还出席了亚太四国“日韩澳新峰会”，未来还想争取主办所谓“民主峰会”等等。可以看出，韩国参与的所谓“国际团结”或多或少都是具有针对中国意味的多边机制或多边活动。因此，韩国国内有很多媒体和专家担心这类举动迟早会遭到中国“报复”，但是尹锡悦政府却另有一套自我说服的逻辑。
Kim Sung-han, head of the National Security Office in ROK's new streamlined presidential office, generalized during the election President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol’s foreign policy as “self-strengthening based on international solidarity”. As soon as he took office, the new president was busy strengthening the US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation, jointly initiating the “Indo-Pacific economic framework”, and trying to join the Quad. He also attended the NATO summit and the “Japan-ROK-Australia-New Zealand summit”, and hoped to host a “summit for democracy” in the future. Apparently, the so-called “international solidarity” that the ROK is engaged in are multilateral mechanisms and activities more or less targeted at China. Many media and experts in the country are worried that these moves would cause discontent in China sooner or later, but the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has come up with a self-convincing narrative.
韩国政府中的一些人主张，中国过去不尊重韩国，甚至干涉韩国内政，但是前任政府却“屈服于中国的压力”。他们认为，中国之所以会在“萨德”问题上“报复”韩国，就是因为韩国没有同美国、日本等保持足够的团结。如果韩国同美日等西方国家团结一致，中国反而会对韩国另眼相看，更加重视韩国。这些人由此推导出韩国要更加积极地参与美西方主导的多边框架以对付中国。他们自信地认为，中国不会单挑多边框架中的韩国这一个国家出来进行打击，而且如果中国这么做了，其他国家也会联手帮助韩国。这是一个典型的想和中国打群架的思维。
Some people in the ROK government said, China didn’t respect the ROK in the past and interfered in its internal affairs, but the previous administration succumbed to its pressure. According to them, China dared to fight back against the ROK on the THAAD issue exactly because Seoul was not united enough with Washington and Tokyo. If it was, China would have changed its tune and set greater store with the ROK. Therefore, they came to the conclusion that the ROK should take a more active part in the multilateral framework dominated by the US-led West to contain China. They are confident that China wouldn’t single out the ROK from the multilateral framework because once it did, the other countries would rally around the ROK against it. That’s typical “group fight” thinking – against China.
这套逻辑存在诸多问题，最根本的一条是颠倒因果关系。近几年来，中韩之间的确因“萨德入韩”而产生矛盾，这显然不能归咎于采取回应措施的中国，而是韩国成为美国打压中国棋子的结果。韩国现政府中甚至有高层人士当面要求中国维护所谓“基于规则的国际秩序”。中韩之间原本不存在什么国际秩序造成的问题，也不存在根本性的利益冲突。可以说，今天的韩国似乎正在主动制造一个要同中国对抗的大议题。这样的对抗不符合双方的利益，对韩国的负面影响恐怕更大。 And this logic is riddled with holes, especially as it is putting the cart before the hose. In recent years, China and the ROK had some frictions over the deployment of THAAD in the ROK, but China, which was forced to take countermeasures, was obviously not to blame as it was the ROK that was willingly reduced to being a pawn in America’s anti-China strategy. Some senior officials in the incumbent ROK government even asked China vis-à-vis to maintain the so-called “rules-based international order”. The conflict between China and the ROK has nothing to do with an international order, and they have no fundamental conflict of interests either. It seems Seoul is intentionally creating a narrative of standing against China, which is not in either party’s interests, perhaps with more negative impacts on Seoul itself.
韩国不仅给自己制造了病因，还开出一副不对症的方子。一些韩国人以为，主动与中国脱钩，主动对抗中国以表达追随美西方的忠心就可以换来本国的经济增长和国家安全，换来中国对韩国的尊重。这是一个彻头彻尾的误判。韩国面临的安全问题不是通过倒向西方和引入美国的武器装备可以解决的。目前，“萨德”基地的环境影响评估工作已经提上日程，这是尹锡悦政府要继续推动“萨德”部署的一个重要信号。借助“萨德入韩”，华盛顿还离间了中韩关系。韩国为了美国牺牲自身利益，真遇到事情的时候，美国会替它出头吗？
Not only did the ROK fabricate an excuse for itself, but it has concocted a prescription that is nevertheless wrong. Some people in ROK hold the illusion that if the country takes the initiative to decouple China and stand against it, its show of allegiance to the US-led West could earn economic growth, national security, and China’s respect. This cannot be more wrong! The security dilemma faced by the ROK cannot be resolved by leaning toward the West and introducing American weapons and equipment. At the moment, the environmental impact assessment for the THAAD base is on the agenda, sending a key signal that the Yoon Suk-yeol government will move on with the deployment of THAAD. Now that Seoul is ready to let Washington drive a wedge between it and China – at the expense of its own interests, does it think the US will stand up for it when something really happens?
韩国政府反复宣称，参加小圈子“并非为排斥或针对特定国家或地区”。这有些掩耳盗铃。所幸的是，韩国新政府尚未公布成形的对华政策，只是已有言行的确令人担忧其对华政策在走向错误的路上。中韩是搬不走的永久近邻，也是分不开的合作伙伴。事实已经证明，中韩关系发展符合两国和两国人民根本利益，也促进了地区和平与发展。中国支持韩国在国际舞台上发挥更积极作用，共同谋求东北亚的积极和平，而不是阵营对抗的消极和平。对抗不符合中国的利益，更不符合韩国的利益。希望首尔认清中韩关系的本质，在对华政策上不要盲目追随美西方。
The ROK government repeatedly claimed that it didn’t join the cliques to repel or target any specific country or region. Well, that sounds lame even to its own ears. Luckily, the new administration hasn’t officially announced its China policy yet, but its words and deeds so far are nothing but troubling and there are signs that its China policy is heading in the wrong direction. China and the ROK are close neighbors and inseparable partners. Facts have proven that a good bilateral relationship benefits both countries and their peoples, and promotes regional peace and development. China supports the ROK in playing a more positive role on the international stage, and wishes to work together for positive peace in Northeast Asia rather than passive peace based on block confrontation. Confrontation is not in China’s interests, much less in the ROK’s. Seoul should be aware of the nature of China-ROK relations and avoid blindly following the US-led West in its China policy.
（作者是上海对外经贸大学朝鲜半岛研究中心主任、教授）
(The author is a professor and director at the Center for Korean Peninsula Studies(CKPS), Shanghai University of International Business and Economics.)
Editor's Note: This article is originally published on huanqiu.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
