杜朝平

By Du Zhaoping

揣测朝鲜新一轮核试验，频繁对朝发出反制威胁，恢复中断许久的大型野外实兵机动演练……韩国尹锡悦政府上台以来，抛弃对朝缓和政策，巩固韩美军事同盟，持续推高半岛紧张局势。

Suspecting a new round of nuclear tests by the DPRK, frequently issuing threats of countermeasures to it, and resuming the long-suspended large-scale live-fire maneuvering exercise in the field, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has abandoned the mild policy toward the DPRK since coming into office and turned to consolidating the ROK-US military alliance, which has continuously escalated the tension on the Korean Peninsula.

文在寅执政时期，韩美与朝鲜虽时有磕碰，但半岛局势总体平稳。特别是2018年“特金会”后，韩美暂停当年8月的联合军演，次年文在寅政府再次暂停韩美大规模军演。此后两年，由于新冠肺炎疫情影响，韩美联合军演主要以电脑模拟形式举行。尹锡悦政府上台后，加速向美国靠拢，巩固韩美同盟，改善韩日关系，对朝则采取强硬敌视政策，使半岛局势波澜再起。

During Moon Jae-in’s term, the peninsular situation remained generally stable despite some minor frictions between ROK and US on one side and DPRK on the other every now and then. Especially after the summit meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in 2018, Washington and Seoul halted their August joint military exercises that year, followed by another halt by the Moon Jae-in administration the next year. In the next two years, their joint military exercises were carried out in the form of computerized simulation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Things changed after Yoon Suk-yeol stepped into power. He moved toward the US more quickly, consolidated the ROK-US alliance, and improved the relations with Japan while taking a tough and hostile policy toward DPRK, setting the peninsular situation on edge again.

一方面，韩美揣测朝鲜可能进行新一轮地下核试验，多次对朝发出威胁信号。6月29日，韩美日3国首脑在马德里北约峰会期间举行三边会谈，就应对朝鲜核导威胁达成共识。7月6日，尹锡悦首次会晤军方高层领导，要求军方强化实力，遏阻朝鲜核武器和导弹项目。7月18日，美国财长耶伦在飞往首尔的飞机上警告称，如果朝鲜进行核试验，美国将采取进一步制裁措施。7月22日，韩国国防部长李钟燮表示，朝鲜几乎已完成核试验准备。

On the one hand, ROK and the US suspected that DPRK may launch a new round of underground nuclear tests and therefore issued threatening signals to it multiple times. On June 29, top leaders of ROK, the US, and Japan held a trilateral meeting in Madrid in the middle of the NATO Summit and reached a consensus on how to respond to nuclear missile threats from Pyongyang. On July 6, Yoon Suk-yeol met with senior military leaders for the first time, asking them to enhance capacities and forestall DPRK’s nuclear weaponry and missile projects. On July 18, US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen warned on a flight to Seoul that DPRK’s nuclear tests would incur further sanctions from the US. On July 22, ROK Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup said Pyongyang has almost completed all preparations for nuclear tests.

另一方面，韩美恢复大规模联合实兵演练，且明确以应对半岛局势为背景。6月3日至5日，韩美举行尹锡悦上台以来首次海上联演，这是时隔4年零7个月，美国首次派出核动力航母参加韩美演习。7月5日至14日，美空军6架F-35A战斗机从阿拉斯加转场至韩国，与韩空军举行联合演练。这是时隔5年，美F-35A战斗机再次部署至朝鲜半岛。7月22日，韩国国防部宣布，韩美定于8月22日至9月1日举行年度夏季联合演习，除联合指挥所演习外，还将恢复中断许久的大型野外实兵机动演练。韩国国防部称，未来两国联合军演规模将趋向正常化。韩国将提高导弹探测能力，推动尽早部署新型拦截系统。

On the other hand, ROK and the US resumed their large-scale, live-fire joint exercises in the simulated background of tackling the peninsular situation. From June 3 to 5, the two countries held their first joint maritime exercise after Yoon Suk-yeol came into office. The last time Washington dispatched a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to participate in the exercise was four years and seven months ago. From July 5 to 14, the US Air Force’s six F-35A fighter jets flew to ROK via Alaska for a joint exercise with their ROK counterparts, five years after the last such deployment. On July 22, ROK Defense Ministry announced that the US and ROK decided to hold their annual summer joint exercise from August 22 to September 1, during which they will resume the long-suspended large-scale, live-fire maneuvering exercise in the field in addition to operations at the joint command center. The ministry also said their military exercise will gradually resume the normal scale, and ROK will improve its missile detection capability and deploy the new interception system at an early date.

对韩美上述举措，朝鲜予以针锋相对地回击。韩国宣布恢复大型野外实兵机动演练当天，朝鲜外务省在其官方网站刊文称，如果韩美执意在半岛周边动用美国战略核武器进行大规模演习，朝鲜将进行最强硬回击。文章还对韩美日三边勾连进行批判，指出面对敌对势力加剧半岛紧张气氛的行为，朝鲜只能进一步提升国防能力。7月21日，朝鲜外务省下属智库裁军与和平研究所副所长崔进表示，韩美密谋在军演中讨论部署核武器，正在把朝鲜半岛推向战争边缘，美国应放弃对朝采取与时代不符、自杀式的敌意政策，否则将面临其不愿看到的后果。

The DPRK has gone tit-for-tat against these moves by the US and ROK. On the very day that Seoul announced the resumption of the field maneuvering exercise, DPRK Foreign Ministry released a statement on its official website, saying that if Washington and Seoul were determined to carry out large-scale exercises around the Korean Peninsula using American strategic weapons, they should be waiting for the strongest reactions from Pyongyang. The statement also criticized the collusion among ROK, the US and Japan, adding that the actions of enemy forces to aggravate tension on the peninsula have left Pyongyang no choice but to further fortify its national defense capability. On July 21, the deputy director of the Institute for Disarmament and Peace, a think tank under DPRK’s Foreign Ministry, said ROK and the US planned to discuss nuclear weapon deployment during the military exercise, and they were pushing the peninsula to the edge of war. He warned that the US should give up its anachronistic, suicidal hostile policy toward DPRK, or it will face consequences it doesn’t want to face.

分析人士指出，韩美强化军事同盟，联手鼓噪朝鲜核威胁，提高联合军演频次和实战性，意在对朝鲜施加更大政治军事压力，无疑将加剧半岛紧张局势，不利于东北亚地区和平稳定。

Analysts said by strengthening their military alliance, jointly hyping the nuclear threats from DPRK, and making their exercises more frequent and realistic, Washington and Seoul attempt to put greater political and military pressure on Pyongyang. That without any doubt will further exacerbate the tension on the peninsula and undermine peace and stability in Northeast Asia.