刘诗琪
By Liu Shiqi
8月7日，马里东北部一处军营遭恐怖分子袭击，42名士兵死亡，22名士兵受伤，37名恐怖分子被打死。马里政府表示，此次袭击很可能由极端组织“大撒哈拉伊斯兰国”实施。该组织效忠极端组织“伊斯兰国”，在地处萨赫勒地区的西非国家马里、尼日尔和布基纳法索活动，不时在马里和尼日尔交界地区袭击军队和平民。
On August 7, a military camp in northeast Mali was attacked by terrorists, leaving 42 soldiers dead and 22 injured and 37 terrorists dead. The Mali government said the attack was very likely organized by the extremist organization Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), which pledges allegiance to the extremist organization Islamic State (IS). Based in Sahel, ISGS is active in West African countries like Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, and has been attacking military and civilians on the Mali-Niger border every now and then.
此次袭击是马里10年来安全局势趋于恶化的缩影。2012年，分裂分子控制了马里北部，引发马里危机。此后，恐怖势力不断分散南扩，马里中部及边境地区频繁发生恐怖袭击等事件，首都巴马科等地区的恐袭风险也愈发高企。马里恐怖主义与暴力活动激增并向周边国家蔓延的态势，引起国际社会高度关注。
The latest attack epitomizes the worsening security situation in Mali in the past decade. In 2012, separatists controlled the northern part of the country and sparked the Mali crisis. Since then, terrorist forces have spread southward, subjecting the central and border regions to constant terrorist attacks, with particularly high risks in the capital city of Bamako. The surging terrorist and violent activities in Mali and their spread to surrounding countries have aroused close attention in the international community.
近年来，在联合国马里多层面综合稳定特派团、西非国家经济共同体维稳部队 等力量支持下，马里国内形势在一定程度上得到改善。但是，随着2017年“伊斯兰国”在中东地区遭受重创，大量非籍恐怖分子回流非洲。马里的反叛武装与激进势力相互勾结，使这一地区日益成为恐怖主义滋生的温床。目前，包括马里、布基纳法索、尼日尔等国在内的非洲萨赫勒地区是非洲恐怖主义活动最猖獗的地区。
Supported by the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) and the Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG), the domestic situation in Mali has improved to some extent in recent years. However, as lots of African terrorists went back to Africa after IS took severe losses in the Middle East in 2017, the armed rebels in Mali colluded with radical forces, turning the region increasingly into a hotbed for terrorism. At present, the Sahel region, where Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are located, is home to the most rampant terrorist activities in Africa.
马里安全形势持续恶化，恐怖袭击风险呈上升趋势，折射出该国面临的多重危机。
The worsening security situation and rising risks of terrorist attacks in Mali reflect the multiple crises faced by the country.
政治上，马里政坛动荡不安。2020年以来的两次政变，使本就脆弱的社会安全形势蒙上阴影。加之过渡政府的政策缺乏延续性，遏制恐怖活动、极端暴力的难度不断增大。
First, Mali is politically precarious. Two coup d'états since 2020 have thrown another blow to the already fragile social security, which, coupled with the transition government’s lack of policy continuity, has made it ever harder to curb terrorist activities and extremist violence.
经济上，新冠肺炎疫情的蔓延对马里经济造成严重冲击。有关国家从2020年起对马里实施多项金融和贸易制裁，使马里的经济困境雪上加霜。根据世界银行报告，2021年马里的经济增长率仅为3.1%，全国贫困率上升到44.4%。此外，由于降雨量创历史新低，马里的粮食产量较五年平均水平减少了15%。民众的生存难以得到保障，也缺乏发展机会。
Second, the rampant COVID-19 pandemic has lent a heavy blow to Mali’s economy. The financial and trade sanctions imposed by certain countries on it since 2020 have further aggravated the teetering economy. According to a report by the World Bank, Mali’s economy grew only 3.1% but its poverty incidence shot up to 44.4% in 2021. Furthermore, the rare rainfall, reaching a historical new low, has slashed the country’s grain output by 15% compared to the five-year average, which is barely enough to keep everyone alive, let alone create opportunities for development.
国际支持上，今年2月，已在萨赫勒地区进行了9年反恐行动的法国宣布从马里撤军。以法国为首的多个国家撤军，客观上给马里带来一定的安全真空，恐怖势力或借此机会增加活动频率。
Third, in terms of international support, in February this year, France, which has been carrying out anti-terror operations in the Sahel region for nine years, withdrew from Mali. The pullout of international troops led by France left a security vacuum in the country that may allow the terrorist forces to make a comeback.
面对马里当前安全局势的复杂性，须从治本出发，发挥萨赫勒五国集团作用，加大国际支持，避免“越反越恐”。一是要以发展促和平，提高马里的经济水平和治理能力。马里需在发展经济、消除贫困、保障就业和教育等方面加大投入，把资源和力量投入到国家发展之所需，注重解决根源性问题。二是要发挥萨赫勒五国集团作为反恐前线的作用。萨赫勒地区国家是一个不可分割的安全共同体，马里、布基纳法索、乍得、毛里塔尼亚和尼日尔五国应共同筑起一道打击恐怖势力的屏障。三是国际社会应加大对马里等萨赫勒国家的支持，进一步增强其自我发展能力，尽可能消除恐怖主义滋生的土壤。
Considering the current complex security situation in Mali, the international community should tackle the root causes, exert the role of the Group of Five for the Sahel, provide more support, and avoid strengthening the terrorist forces while combatting them. For one thing, efforts should be made to improve Mali’s economic level and governance capability in order to promote peace through development. Mali must invest more to boost economy, eliminate poverty, create more jobs and advance education, allocate resources and personnel where they are needed most, and focus on tackling the fundamental issues. For another, the Group of Five for the Sahel must be brought into full play as the frontline anti-terror forces. The Sahel region is an indivisible security community, where Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritania and Niger should work together to put up a barrier against terrorist forces. For a third, the international community should provide more support to regional countries, fortify their ability for self-development, and try to remove the soil for terrorism.
（作者单位：北京师范大学一带一路学院）
(The author is from the Belt and Road School of Beijing Normal University)
