OPEC+, the combination of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) members including Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC members such as Russia, recently announced its decision to slash oil production. The US side immediately vowed to retaliate, with Democratic senators proposing a new bill to stop US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and pull back their troops and missile defense systems deployed in Saudi Arabia and UAE.
Why did the decision of OPEC+ infuriate the Biden administration? Will Washington pull its troops out of Saudi Arabia and stop arms sales to it?
According to military observer Liang Yongchun, OPEC+’s announcement to cut oil production despite the US government’s suggestion against it has spiked up the global crude oil price and given the US a slap in the face. That’s what made the superpower hot under the collar.
With the US midterm election just around the corner, Saudi Arabia pushing up the oil price now will aggravate the inflation in the US and directly affect the votes for the Democrats while making Biden’s previous trip to the Middle Eastern country a joke. No wonder the White House flew into such a rage and planned to revenge and intimidate Saudi Arabia.
Other analysts said that pulling troops out from there may substantially change America’s security architecture in the Middle East. LiangYongchun, a military observer, commented that the US has always seen Saudi Arabia as a strategic pivot in its Middle East strategy given the country’s central position in the region – facing the Red Sea in the west and the Persian Gulf in the east. The US has persistently stationed troops at the Al-Ẓahrān air base and Jubail naval base, and deployed missile defense systems and multiple large arsenals to store heavy weapons like tanks in Saudi Arabia. Last year, the US expanded several new naval and air bases on the Red Sea coast in the country to make sure American troops can quickly arrive in Saudi Arabia if anything happens in the Middle East.
According to Liang’s analysis, with America’s declining influence, the Biden administration’s threat to Saudi Arabia is merely bluffing. It won’t really pull its troops out, nor will it cut off the arms sales because Saudi Arabia is not only the leader of OPEC, but also one of the leaders of the whole Arab world or even the Islamic world, and also America’s important proxy in the Middle East. Should the US pull away its troops and stop selling weapons to it, Saudi Arabia and the Middle East will be hard to control, and Washington won’t be able to make exorbitant profits from arms deals, much less to ensure the solid position of “petro-dollar”.
The Saudi government would play soft at the right time to save the US face, but it will never be at America’s beck and call anymore on issues concerning its core interests, such as oil prices.
Editor’s note: Originally published on cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
