US' new national defense strategy report sends multiple messages

美最新国防战略报告传递多重信息

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Huang Panyue
Time
2022-11-01 01:02:06

张家栋

By Zhang Jiadong

10月27日,美国国防部公布新版美国国防战略报告的非保密版。美军2018年发表上一份国防战略报告时美军尚在阿富汗作战,美军称要实现从反恐、打击极端分子向传统大国间竞争的新方向转型。2022年版报告表明,美军这一战略方向的调整已经基本完成。

The US Department of Defense released a new, unclassified version of National Defense Strategy on October 27. When the last such strategy report was released in 2018, the US military was fighting the Afghan war, planning to turn from anti-terror efforts and combating extremists to the new direction of competition among traditional major countries. Now the 2022 strategy report is announcing the basic completion of that veering.

如何应对中国是2022年版报告的核心。这份报告延续了时任总统特朗普对中国的战略重视程度,继续把中国视为美国的首要战略竞争对手,称“中国在未来数十年对美国国家安全构成最根本威胁”。美国还试图把自己的对华战略定位强加给国际社会。国防部长奥斯汀称,“北京是唯一想要改变国际秩序,且越来越具有改变国际秩序实力的竞争对手。”

The 2022 NDS is focused on how to cope with China. Continuing the previous president Donald Trump’s strategic attention to China, the new report views it as America’s arch strategic rival and “our most consequential strategic competitor for the coming decades”. The US is trying to impose its own China strategy upon the international community. Beijing “is the only competitor out there with both the intent to reshape the international order and increasingly the power to do so,” said US Defense Secretary Austin.

报告还明确,美军的发展方向将围绕中国军事力量的特征和发展方向而定。美国国防部将在2023年投入史无前例的1300亿美元资金,用于包括超音速、网络、人工智能和定向能武器等高科技军事装备的研发。同时,美国国防部将改变策略、调整科研结构,吸引更多民营企业和民间技术人员加入。此外,太空军事化趋势进一步明显,太空军备竞赛的可能性上升。报告称,中国和俄罗斯在超音速导弹技术上发展迅速,击落或改变卫星轨道的能力上升。为此,最新报告以太空战假设为前提,以保障美国卫星遇袭时的可靠性为目标,建议美国建立低轨道卫星带,增强对超音速导弹的侦测能力。事实上,由于星链等的存在,美国已经在低轨道卫星带建立绝对的垄断优势,并在俄乌冲突中发挥较大作用。美国深耕低轨道卫星带将吸引更多国家加入,人类的星空将变得更加拥挤、危险。

The NDS makes it clear that the US military will develop eyeing the characteristics and direction of China’s military strengths. The DoD will spend an unprecedented US$130 billion in 2023 on developing high-tech military equipment including hypersonic weapons, cyber devices, AI and direction energy weapons. It will also change the tactics, adjust the scientific research portfolio, and lure the participation of more private businesses and non-government technical personnel. The trend of space militarization is further highlighted in the report with a rising possibility of an arms race in outer space. The NDS claims that China and Russia are quickly developing hypersonic missile technologies, which give them greater abilities to hit down satellites or change their orbits. Therefore, the report, assuming a space war and aiming to ensure the reliability of American satellites when under attack, suggests the US establish a low-orbit satellite belt to be able to better reconnoiter and detect hypersonic missiles. As a matter of fact, the US has already secured an absolute monopoly in the low-orbit satellite belt because of the existence of Starlink, which has played a major role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If more countries join the US in this direction, the sky will become more crowded and dangerous.

这份报告的变化同样值得关注。 The changes in this new report are worth equal attention.

一是,俄罗斯在美国国防战略中的地位继续下降。从特朗普执政以来,美国不断调整俄罗斯的战略地位。一方面,美国把俄罗斯的战略层级提升至第一层级。另一方面,它又把俄罗斯的位次后移,居于中国之后。拜登总统上台后,美国干脆把俄罗斯的战略层级降了一级,与伊朗等国并列。如今这份最新国防战略报告虽然称俄罗斯的对乌“特别军事行动”对美国构成“迫切威胁”,但正如奥斯汀所说,“俄罗斯从长远来看不会对美国构成系统性威胁”。这似乎表明,美国已经不把俄罗斯视为一个战略级别的对手。 First, Russia is placed one notch down in America’s national defense strategy. Washington has constantly re-positioned Russia since Trump’s term. On the one hand, it elevated Moscow to the first tier of strategic importance; on the other hand, it put it after China. When Biden came into office, Washington downgraded Russia’s strategic level to be on a par with countries like Iran. The latest NDS report calls Russia’s special military operations against Ukraine an acute threat, but as Austin said, Russia, in the long term, won’t pose any systemic threat to the US, which seems to indicate that America no longer views Russia as a strategic rival.

二是,美国提高了核威慑的调门,提出“一体化威慑”的新概念。新报告首先称,俄罗斯对乌克兰的行动凸显出,“在竞争日益激烈和不稳定的地缘政治背景下,核危险仍然存在并且可能恶化”。随后,报告明确指出,美国将对核攻击采取决定性的报复性措施,以慑止潜在的核冲突。对此,美国提出“一体化威慑”的新概念,试图通过建立、利用广泛且综合性的军事力量、经济和外交压力以及强大的同盟网络,来威慑潜在的战略对手。在“一体化威慑”的新体系中,核威慑仍然是基石。

Second, the US has put forth the new concept of “integrated deterrence” as a way of giving more importance and urgency to nuclear deterrence. The new NDS states that “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underscores that nuclear dangers persist, and could grow, in an increasingly competitive and volatile geopolitical landscape”. It also confirms that the US will take decisive retaliatory measures against nuclear attacks to deter and stop potential nuclear conflicts. Through the new “integrated deterrence” concept, the superpower is trying to deter potential strategic rivals by forming and utilizing an extensive, comprehensive combination of military forces and economic and diplomatic pressure, as well as a strong network of allies, with nuclear deterrence remaining the cornerstone.

简而言之,从这份国防战略报告可以看出,美军目前没有在短期内从事大规模战争的战略预期。华盛顿认为,来自俄罗斯的威胁“迫切但不重大”,来自中国的挑战是“重大但不迫切”。美国对华战略仍然是不回避竞争与对抗,但努力避免直接军事冲突。在中美关系中,不寻求直接军事冲突的战略底线仍然存在,基本的战略互信并未消失。

To sum up, the new NDS shows that the US military doesn’t expect a large-scale war in the short term. Washington thinks the threat from Russia is acute but not substantial, whereas the challenge from China is substantial but not acute. Its China strategy remains one that doesn’t avoid competition or confrontation but would make every effort to avoid a direct military conflict – that strategic bottom line persists in the China-US relations, implying that basic strategic mutual trust between the two countries hasn’t completely vanished.

但是,美国也进一步明确了对华战略的目标,那就是要努力阻止中国在关键领域取得优势,其中最主要的就是高科技创新能力和关键产业链安全保障能力的竞争。

Yet Washington also clarifies its goal with China – to stop China from obtaining superiority in any key area by all means, first and foremost the capability of high-tech innovation and of securing key industry chains.

(作者是复旦大学美国研究中心教授)

(The author is a professor at the Center for American Studies, Fudan University)

 

Related News

back