By Teng Jianqun

滕建群

Following the Poland missile incident, Germany was ready to provide Poland with the Patriot air defense system, but the Polish defense minister later said they had requested Germany to deploy the system in Ukraine.

波兰导弹事件发生后，德国宣布向波兰提供“爱国者”防空系统。然而波兰国防部长随后却表示，已经向德国方面提出请求，将该防空系统部署到乌克兰。

The two countries have been constantly at odds recently. The German government refused to provide the Leopard 2 Main Battle Tank to Poland, while Poland has repeatedly accused Germany of not aiding Ukraine militarily faster; Poland claimed a gigantic war compensation from Germany, while Germany threatened to re-delimit their boundary. Poland’s latest decline of Germany’s Patriot air defense system and suggestion for it to be deployed in Ukraine further reflected the deepened bilateral rift.

近段时间两国间摩擦不断，德国政府拒绝向波兰提供“豹2”坦克，波兰多次指责德国，敦促其加快对乌克兰军援步伐；波兰向德国索要巨额战争赔偿，德国威胁波兰要重新划定两国边界。波兰此次“婉拒”德国的“爱国者”防空系统，转而提出将该系统部署至乌克兰，更是两国矛盾不断加深的具体表现。

In response to Poland’s suggestion, German defense minister said the Patriot is part of NATO’s overall air defense system, and deploying it outside NATO’s territory would require discussions with other members. As the US is working to keep the conflict in Europe from further escalation, NATO and Germany won’t hurriedly deploy the Patriot to Ukraine.

对于波兰方面的提议，德国国防部长回应，“爱国者”是北约综合防空系统的一部分，如果要部署在北约领土之外，需要与北约及盟友讨论。在美国有意避免欧洲地区冲突进一步升级的情况下，北约和德国不会贸然将“爱国者”防空系统部署至乌克兰。

Besides, deploying Patriot to Ukraine would mean that German engineers, technicians and soldiers would have to go there too, which would increase the possibility of a military conflict between Russia and Germany. Therefore, under current circumstances, NATO isn’t likely to make that move.

而且，如果德国的“爱国者”防空系统部署到乌克兰，德国的工程技术人员、军人可能会同时进入乌克兰，加大了俄罗斯与德国发生军事冲突的可能。所以在目前情况下，北约不太可能把“爱国者”部署到乌克兰。

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, the US installed its Patriot missile defense system in countries including Poland, where it also sent elite troops in Poland. However, the missile attack on Poland proved that America’s deployments were more to protect its own interests, and military protection from the US cannot bring true security for Europe.

俄乌冲突爆发后，美国急调“爱国者”导弹防御系统部署到包括波兰在内的一些国家，同时也向波兰派出了精锐部队。但是波兰遭遇导弹袭击的事件证明，美国的相关部署，更多是从维护自身利益出发。日前发生的波兰导弹事件再次敲响警钟，美国的军事保护并不能为欧洲带来真正的安全。

At the same time, all 27 EU members agree that it is necessary to establish troops of their own. Hoping to be the “bellwether” in Europe’s independent defense, Germany last month took lead in forming the European Sky Shield initiative – a unified air defense procurement and deployment alliance involving 14 NATO members and Finland. But Poland didn’t join this alliance, which reflected a divided attitude within the union towards creating an independent air defense anti-missile system.

与此同时，欧盟27个成员国一致认为有必要建立欧盟自己的部队。德国希望能够成为欧洲独立防御的“领头羊”，于上月牵头14个北约国家和芬兰组建了一个名为“欧洲天空之盾倡议”的统一的防空采购与部署联盟。但是，波兰并未加入这一联盟，这反映出欧洲内部对建立独立防空反导体系的态度并不一致。

Editor’s Notes: The author is a former senior colonel assigned to the PLA Navy and the secretary general of Department for American Studies and Director of Center of Arms Control and International Security, China Institute of International Studies. This article is originally published on cnr.cn, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

作者为原中国人民解放军海军大校,中国国际问题研究院中美关系研究中心秘书长、军控与国际安全研究中心主任。