Experts at Xiangshan Forum: Chinese, American militaries must step up crisis control

香山论坛与会专家:中美两军需加强危机管控

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Li Wei
Time
2022-12-05 18:56:54
The Beijing Xiangshan Forum Webinar 2022 concluded on the afternoon of December 2.
12月2日下午,2022年北京香山论坛专家视频会在京闭幕。
 

By Wang Lu

王露

The Beijing Xiangshan Forum Webinar 2022 kicked off on December 1. At the first session themed “Security, Stability and Peaceful Development in the Asia Pacific”, stabilizing the China-US relations, especially the mil-to-mil relations, was a hot topic among the attending Chinese and foreign experts.

12月1日,2022年北京香山论坛专家视频会在京开幕。在当日以“亚太的安全稳定与和平发展”为主题的第一节会议上,稳定中美关系,尤其是两军关系成为与会中外专家讨论的核心议题之一。

The China-US military relationship is a key variable that cannot be bypassed when it comes to peace and stability in the Asia Pacific region. The recent meeting between Chinese and American defense ministers is generally regarded as a sign of thawing mil-to-mil relations, but America’s passive actions regarding some regional hotspot issues are still worth vigilance.

事实上,谈及亚太局势的和平与稳定,中美两军关系的发展走向是一个无法绕过的关键变量。外界将近期的中美两国防长会晤视为两军关系“解冻”的标志,但近期美方在一些区域热点问题上的消极举动仍值得警惕。

How to better control the crisis between the Chinese and American militaries after the two state leaders met in Bali? Michael Swaine, director of the East Asia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the two militaries need to communicate on a deeper level to make state-to-state relations more resilient. The two countries should also discuss their differences and take steps to manage divergences, which requires more effort on both sides. He stressed that if China and the US, the world’s two most important economies, cannot get along in peace, that will exert tremendous impacts on the regional and global security situation, which makes crisis control all the more important.

中美元首巴厘岛会晤后,如何加强中美两军之间的危机管控?美国昆西国家事务研究所东亚项目首席主任迈克尔•史文(Michael Swaine)表示,中美两军之间需要进一步加深交流,使得两国关系更有韧性。另一方面,两国还需讨论差异,妥善采取措施以管控分歧,这需要双方做出更多的努力。“中美是世界上最主要的经济体,如果不能和平相处,将对本地区乃至世界安全局势产生重大影响。因此,危机管控非常重要。”史文强调。

Speaking of the latest high-level interactions between Chinese and American militaries, Lieutenant Colonel Steve Smith, Assistant Military Attaché at the American Embassy in China, said at the Xiangshan Forum that what he most wished to see is channels of communication being rebuilt between the two militaries. Underlining the importance of that, he explained that it would be too late to resume the channels of dialogue when a crisis is at hand; so it’s important that both sides understand each other’s capabilities and intentions and have effective communication before a potential crisis broke out.

在北京香山论坛期间,着眼于中美两军高层的最新互动,美国驻华大使馆助理武官史蒂芬•史密斯中校(Lieutenant Colonel Steve Smith)表示:“我最希望看到的是,中美两军能够重新建立起沟通的渠道。”至于两军重建沟通渠道的重要性,史密斯进一步解释称,等到危机发生之时,才开始着手恢复对话渠道为时已晚,因此,在潜在危机爆发之前就需要了解对方的能力与意图,并开展有效的沟通。

In early August the Chinese side, in response to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan island, canceled China-US Theater Commanders Talk, China-U.S. Defense Policy Coordination Talks (DPCT) and China-U.S. Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) meetings. The recent meeting between the two defense ministers seemed to have brought a ray of hope for resuming those regimes, as generally expected by the outside world according to foreign media coverage.

此前,作为对佩洛西“窜台”的反制,中方于今年8月初宣布取消中美两军战区领导通话,取消了中美国防部工作会晤以及中美海上军事安全磋商机制会议。而近期中美防长的会晤似乎为恢复上述机制带来了一丝曙光。据外媒报道,外界预计,此前冻结的一些机制将会重新启动。

However, America’s recent frequent moves in the South China Sea have increased uncertainties in the region. Just one week after the China-US defense ministers’ meeting, the USS Chancellorsville Guided Missile Cruiser trespassed into waters adjacent to islands and reefs of China’s Nansha Islands on November 29 without the approval of Chinese government and defended the intrusion as a “freedom of navigation” action. In response, the PLA Southern Theater Command released on the afternoon of November 29 the chart showing the cruiser’s trajectory of trespassing into waters near Chinese islands and reefs and how the Southern Theater Command officers monitored its movements and warned it away.

然而,需注意美国近期在南海动作频频,增加了该地区的不稳定因素。就在中美防长会晤一周后,11月29日,美“钱斯洛斯维尔”号导弹巡洋舰未经中国政府批准,非法闯入中国南沙岛礁邻近海域并将其辩称为“航行自由”行动。针对美方的狡辩,中国人民解放军南部战区29日下午发布了该舰故意冲闯我岛礁邻近海域航迹示意图,以及南部战区官兵观察驱离该舰的现场图。

On the very day of the China-US defense ministers’ meeting, US Vice President Harris’ landing on Palawan Island during her Philippine visit captured wide attention. Philippine news network Rappler reported that Harris even mentioned the so-called “South China Sea arbitration” while giving a speech on the island, saying that as a close ally, the US would stand with the Philippines to stand up against intimidation and coercion regarding the South China Sea issue.

此外,在中美防长会谈的同一天,在菲律宾访问的美国副总统哈里斯还登上了菲律宾巴拉望岛,受到外界关注。据菲律宾拉普勒新闻网(Rappler)报道,哈里斯在该岛演讲时,还提到所谓的“南海仲裁案”,声称“作为盟友,面对有关南海的恐吓和胁迫,美国与菲律宾站在一起”。

More importantly, America’s potential passive dynamics surrounding the Taiwan question, which concerns China’s core interests, merit high vigilance. Roxana Tiron, Reporter at Bloomberg News, tweeted on December 1 that according to what she learned from internal sources, the US Congress planned to provide Taiwan island with a so-called “defense fund” as part of the national defense authorization act for FY2023.

更为重要的是,在涉及中国核心利益的台湾问题上,美国未来一段时间潜在的消极动向值得我们警惕。彭博社记者驻国会记者罗克珊娜•蒂隆(Roxana Tiron)12月1日发推文称,据她掌握的内部消息,美国国会议员计划为对台湾提供所谓“防御资金”,而这将作为美国2023财政年度的国防授权法案的一部分。

It’s clear that although there are signs of ease in the previously “freezing” mil-to-mil relations between China and the US, whether the channels of communication can be resumed between the two militaries will depend on what actions the US side will take, particularly on the Taiwan question. “The Chinese side is sincere about developing the state-to-state and mil-to-mil relations with the US, provided the US side matches its words with deeds,” said Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, spokesperson for Chinese Ministry of National Defense, after the two defense ministers’ meeting.

因此,总体来看,尽管当前中美两军关系较此前“僵冷”的状态,出现了一些“松动”,但欲恢复两军沟通渠道,还需视美方的实际行动而定,尤其是在台湾问题上的行动。“中方对于发展两国两军关系的态度是真诚的,但基本前提是美方必须说到做到,信守承诺。”中国国防报发言人谭克非大校在中美防长会晤后这样强调。

Editor's note: Originally published on thepaper.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

 

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