By Li Yingying

Recently, US President Donald Trump announced plans to reach an agreement with the Zelensky government to exchange Ukraine's rare earth and other mineral resources for continued US military aid and security assurances. Donald Trump claimed that by reaching an agreement with Ukraine, he wants "equalization" from Ukraine for Washington's "close to $300 billion" in support. Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the proposal and stressed that Ukraine would seek to establish a "mutually beneficial" partnership with the US. This partnership would grant American companies priority in the reconstruction process and involve joint development of these mineral resources.

Mineral resources are one of the few bargaining chips Kyiv currently holds to attract US interest. For Ukraine, this proposal is a key component of Zelensky's "Victory Plan." As early as September 2024, Zelensky expressed his open attitude to allowing partner countries that help defend Ukraine to develop its mineral resources during a meeting with Trump. Reaching a relevant agreement with the Donald Trump administration means that Ukraine will secure a commitment from the US for continued assistance and avoid becoming a victim in Russia-US dealings.

Donald Trump has shown strong interest in this proposal. On one hand, it would put an end to "free" aid to Ukraine. During his second term, Donald Trump is expected to fully escalate his "America First" policy and adopt a more aggressive foreign policy approach aimed at further reducing international commitments and significantly cutting foreign aid expenditures. Donald Trump has recently called for the shutdown and restructuring of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), one of the main agencies providing aid to Ukraine. Between 2022 and 2024, USAID provided $32.4 billion in aid to Ukraine, accounting for 27.2% of its total global assistance.

On the other hand, Ukraine is rich in mineral resources, with estimated values of over $12 trillion for key minerals such as rare earths, lithium, and titanium. Rare earths are essential materials for manufacturing high-performance magnets, electric motors, and consumer electronics, while titanium and uranium are crucial for the development of aerospace and nuclear industries. In recent years, the US has elevated supply chain security to a national strategic level and vigorously implemented policies of "decoupling and breaking chains" from China on critical mineral products. The Pentagon has invested nearly $440 million over the past five years to promote the extraction and import of rare earths. Increasing the import of resources such as rare earths from Ukraine could further reduce the dependence of the US on China for critical minerals.

Although both the US and Ukraine have motives to push for the signing of the agreement, the negotiations involve complex geopolitical factors. Moreover, the feasibility is influenced by factors such as resource control, development costs, and the trajectory of the Ukraine crisis. While the two sides may sign a preliminary memorandum of understanding, large-scale development will depend on a fundamental de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Zelensky revealed that currently, nearly 20% of Ukraine's mineral resources, including over 50% of its rare earth resources, are located in Russian-controlled areas. The largest rare earth deposit is situated along the eastern front, where exploitation is difficult and requires significant investment of both time and funds. For the US and Ukraine to reach specific terms, the issue of resource control must first be addressed.

In addition, the "minerals for aid" agreement will have potential impacts. Russia may strengthen its control over Ukraine's eastern mineral resources and invite its allies to jointly develop them, thus intensifying the competition for these resources. For Ukraine, this move would exacerbate the loss of its resources and further increase its dependence on the US. If other countries providing aid to Ukraine follow suit and request resource exchanges, the resources of Ukraine would be divided among multiple nations.

(The author is an assistant research fellow at the Department for European-Central Asian Studies, China Institute of International Studies.)

Editor's Note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.