By Yang Zhen
杨震
Security has increasingly become a core issue in international politics since the Ukraine crisis and the issue of nuclear security has risen to a new height since the Cold War.
乌克兰危机爆发以来，安全问题日益成为国际政治中的核心议题，尤其是核安全问题已上升到冷战之后的新高度。
Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin chaired a permanent conference on nuclear deterrence, an annual event within the framework of the Security Council of Russia. The meeting primarily focused on updating the foundations of the country's nuclear deterrence policy. According to Putin, Russia has always been highly responsible in matters like nuclear weapons, striving to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and their components. Russia's nuclear triad remains the most important security guarantee for Russia and an instrument for maintaining balance of forces in the world. In the updated version of Russia's nuclear doctrine, Russia expanded the scope of states and military alliances subject to nuclear deterrence measures. Aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear-weapon state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear-weapon state, is considered as a joint attack on Russia. Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of such aggression. Furthermore, if conventional weapons pose a serious threat to Russia's sovereignty, it will also be grounds for a nuclear response. Russia also reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Belarus as a member of the Union State.
近日，俄罗斯总统普京主持召开核威慑问题常设会议，这是俄罗斯联邦安全会议框架内的年度例会。此次会议主要讨论了核遏制国家政策基础的更新。普京表示“俄罗斯以最高程度的责任感对待核武器问题，将致力于避免核武器及其相关构件的泛滥。‘三位一体’的核力量仍是俄罗斯安全的最重要保障和保证全球平衡的工具。”在更新版的俄罗斯核学说中，俄方扩大了将对其采取核威慑措施的国家和军事同盟的范围：无核国家在有核国家的参与或者支持下，针对俄罗斯的侵略将被视为这两者的联合攻击，俄方将以核武器进行回应。此外，当常规武器对俄罗斯主权造成严重威胁时，也将成为俄方作出“核回应”的理由。俄方还保留在白俄罗斯作为俄白联盟成员遭到入侵时使用核武器的权利。
Russia's actions are not isolated as NATO has also been active in the nuclear field. Recently, the Atlantic Council, a well-known think tank, called for NATO to adapt its nuclear sharing program, suggesting the deployment of B-61 nuclear bombs to Eastern Europe and the establishment of a network of intermediate-range missile bases across Europe. The think tank praised Washington's decision to send Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles to Germany as a "good start," and insisted that it "does not impose a high enough price" on Russia.
俄罗斯此举并非孤立，北约在核领域也动作频频。不久前，著名智库大西洋理事会呼吁“北约必须调整其核共享计划”，建议将B－61原子弹运往东欧，并在整个欧洲建立中程导弹基地网络。该智库称赞华盛顿向德国运送战斧和SM－6导弹的决定是一个“良好的开端”，但认为此举“没有向俄罗斯施加足够的压力”。
The US had deployed hundreds of new nuclear bombs at several air bases in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Türkiye as of last year. There are also reports that the US plans to redeploy nuclear weapons in the UK after a 15-year hiatus. Additionally, the topic of "extended deterrence" was discussed for the first time during the "2+2" talks between the foreign and defense ministers of Japan and the US this year. The US pledged to use military force, including nuclear weapons, to protect its allies.
截至去年，美国已在德国、荷兰、比利时、意大利和土耳其的多个空军基地部署了上百枚新型核弹。还有消息称，美国正计划在时隔15年后重新在英国部署核武器。此外，日本和美国今年举行的外交部长和国防部长“2＋2”会谈上，首次讨论“延伸威慑”：美国承诺使用包括核武器在内的军事力量保护盟国的问题。
The confrontation between Russia and NATO on nuclear security is bound to have serious consequences in the security field.
俄罗斯和北约在核安全问题上的对抗注定在安全领域造成严重影响。
First, it will worsen the global security environment. As the large holders of nuclear arsenals, Russia and NATO are essentially in a spiral of confrontation. Given the high intensity of previous conflicts, there is now little room for compromise between the two sides.
首先，将恶化全球安全环境。作为最大的核武装拥有者，俄罗斯和北约实际上已陷入螺旋式对抗轨道，且由于前期对抗强度太大，双方的妥协余地已很小。
Second, it will change the nature of nuclear weapons. Currently, the world is in the intermediate to advanced stages of informationized warfare. Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and big data are being increasingly applied to military fields. In particular, AI has significantly altered the face of warfare. The confrontation between the US and Russia in the nuclear field will likely lead to the application of emerging military technologies to nuclear weapons and fundamentally change its nature.
其次，核武器本身将会发生变化。当前正处于信息化战争的中高级阶段。人工智能、大数据等新兴技术逐渐被广泛运用于军事领域。特别是人工智能技术，很大程度上改变了战争的面貌。而美俄在核领域的对抗将导致新兴军事技术运用于核武器，改变核武器的性质。
Third, it will further deteriorate the international nuclear arms control system. In recent years, the arms control mechanisms established during the Cold War have been continuously undermined. After the US withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, Russia announced in February 2023 that it would suspend its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the US, halting the sharing of nuclear weapon information. The US subsequently announced it would stop exchanging nuclear data with Russia as well. With the US and Russia holding over 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons, their repeated breaches of agreements put the mutual supervision and transparency mechanisms in the nuclear arms control field at risk of collapse, which severely impacts the international arms control framework. The ongoing "nuclear confrontation" between the two will further damage this system.
最后，国际核军控体系面临更大破坏。近年来，冷战期间建立的核军控机制不断遭到破坏。继美国退出《反导条约》和《中导条约》之后，俄罗斯于2023年2月宣布暂停履行与美国签署的《新削减战略武器条约》，停止与其分享核武器的相关信息。美国随后也宣布停止与俄罗斯交换核武器数据。拥有全世界90％以上核武器的美俄不断“失约”，使双方在核军控领域的相互监督和透明机制面临崩溃的风险，进而严重冲击国际核军控体系。而未来双方在“核对抗”过程中将使该体系遭受更严重的破坏。
(The author is deputy director of the Center for Northeast Asian Studies at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.)
(作者为上海政法学院东北亚研究中心副主任)
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
